Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs OG - Game 2 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x32a527fa0b4460422f7916b13a97ec3008ac45a920441488a4c4e760825e0e45
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Team Liquidof Team Liquid, OG
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,368
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,978
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,368 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8c0b…7aa5backed OG | 10c | 7,161$729 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$728.82 | 451 | 39.2%177 W · 274 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb3dd…a7e0backed Team Liquid | 68c | 5,818$3,938 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,880.32 | 131 | 55%72 W · 59 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked OG | 32c | 4,000$1,280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,280 | 399 | 36.8%147 W · 252 L | +4.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed OG | 38c | 1,151$436 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$436.07 | 894 | 40.3%360 W · 534 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x033e…1bb9backed OG | 40c | 549.33$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217.93 | 568 | 48.8%277 W · 291 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x33f1…f95fbacked Team Liquid | 62c | 530.65$329 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201.65 | 24 | 66.7%16 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd397…5052backed Team Liquid | 65c | 492.94$322 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.75 | 234 | 65%152 W · 82 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae8f…e8b1backed Team Liquid | 73c | 356.22$261 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.02 | 55 | 40%22 W · 33 L | -5.0wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked OG | 26c | 306.22$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.62 | 2,012 | 44.2%889 W · 1,123 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd855…c823backed OG | 33c | 181.82$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 35 | 57.1%20 W · 15 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x25ed…6ac6backed Team Liquid | 59c | 171.49$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.05 | 78 | 55.1%43 W · 35 L | +6.7wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaac2…df3abacked Team Liquid | 62c | 170.23$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.69 | 49 | 36.7%18 W · 31 L | -4.1wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x563b…774bbacked OG | 38c | 150$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 40 | 60%24 W · 16 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3703…2795backed OG | 40c | 150$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 153 | 41.2%63 W · 90 L | -7.6wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x758f…dfb7backed Team Liquid | 76c | 132.24$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.24 | 346 | 67.9%235 W · 111 L | +9.0wins | +0.03per pick | 65cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked OG | 20c | 127.72$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.43 | 1,821 | 45%820 W · 1,001 L | +33.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa541…d860backed OG | 20c | 110$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 30 | 3.3%1 W · 29 L | -3.6wins | -0.12per pick | 15cpaid | -81.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4d60…be72backed Team Liquid | 63c | 104.76$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.76 | 199 | 49.2%98 W · 101 L | +8.7wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9941…158fbacked Team Liquid | 59c | 101$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.8 | 51 | 33.3%17 W · 34 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe99e…0084backed Team Liquid | 62c | 100$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38 | 876 | 45.7%400 W · 476 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac93…0cfcbacked Team Liquid | 59c | 100$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41 | 581 | 52.5%305 W · 276 L | -10.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2160…bcb3backed OG | 41c | 98.32$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 436 | 47.5%207 W · 229 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd17d…d0eebacked OG | 41c | 97.56$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 192 | 46.4%89 W · 103 L | -6.4wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x197b…7477backed OG | 42c | 96.35$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.17 | 66 | 33.3%22 W · 44 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f2a…e0d7backed OG | 42c | 95.24$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 46 | 41.3%19 W · 27 L | -4.3wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdd36…873bbacked OG | 27c | 89.41$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.4 | 405 | 39.3%159 W · 246 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb719…dacbbacked Team Liquid | 80c | 84.24$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.24 | 43 | 46.5%20 W · 23 L | +4.1wins | +0.10per pick | 37cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe322…7ff1backed Team Liquid | 67c | 62.29$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.33 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 63cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b7…fd5ebacked Team Liquid | 62c | 62.23$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.65 | 37 | 40.5%15 W · 22 L | -2.8wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x38a3…9a02backed Team Liquid | 63c | 60$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.2 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae23…1bc4backed OG | 42c | 48.69$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.45 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -2.3wins | -0.20per pick | 45cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1ffc…8967backed Team Liquid | 61c | 43$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.77 | 220 | 33.6%74 W · 146 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a78…add7backed OG | 33c | 35$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.46 | 364 | 42.3%154 W · 210 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Team Liquid vs OG - Game 2 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: Team Liquid vs OG (BO3)Team Liquid won
- Dota 2: Team Liquid vs OG - Game 1 WinnerTeam Liquid won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.