Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs OG - Game 1 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x51662233b7287d1150b7d7bdb54e82db74f58a818a885d4a4698e88ea9f54763
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Team Liquidof Team Liquid, OG
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,221
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,465
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,221 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4fe9…706abacked OG | 41c | 5,500$2,269 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,269.21 | 158 | 52.5%83 W · 75 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Team Liquid | 57c | 5,177$2,943 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,233.66 | 2,012 | 44.2%889 W · 1,123 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked OG | 41c | 2,317$944 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$943.9 | 399 | 36.8%147 W · 252 L | +4.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x25ed…6ac6backed Team Liquid | 58c | 1,874$1,087 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$786.92 | 78 | 55.1%43 W · 35 L | +6.7wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xde17…68d2backed Team Liquid | 57c | 1,181$673 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$508.2 | 179 | 50.3%90 W · 89 L | +14.7wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb875…68a8backed Team Liquid | 62c | 1,016$630 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$386.08 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | -3.9wins | -0.14per pick | 53cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xba05…f8c0backed OG | 36c | 983.85$359 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$359.01 | 491 | 33.6%165 W · 326 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb22d…3a13backed OG | 42c | 961.74$404 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$403.93 | 240 | 45.4%109 W · 131 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x033e…1bb9backed OG | 39c | 762.82$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 568 | 48.8%277 W · 291 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1bcb…b05abacked Team Liquid | 60c | 600$360 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240 | 380 | 49.2%187 W · 193 L | +13.1wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +168.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6573…ab02backed OG | 33c | 599.99$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9942…5c84backed OG | 42c | 595.24$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 264 | 53%140 W · 124 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd397…5052backed Team Liquid | 75c | 523.13$391 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.83 | 234 | 65%152 W · 82 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a37…869bbacked Team Liquid | 64c | 468.75$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.75 | 52 | 61.5%32 W · 20 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8889…a9d1backed OG | 42c | 450$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189 | 197 | 43.1%85 W · 112 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe06c…62aebacked Team Liquid | 69c | 400$277 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123 | 33 | 63.6%21 W · 12 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16f0…aba5backed Team Liquid | 66c | 355.52$234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.85 | 82 | 65.9%54 W · 28 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9941…158fbacked Team Liquid | 59c | 313.75$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.28 | 51 | 33.3%17 W · 34 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaac2…df3abacked OG | 36c | 280$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.9 | 49 | 36.7%18 W · 31 L | -4.1wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaacf…5f84backed Team Liquid | 79c | 277$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.18 | 592 | 50.5%299 W · 293 L | -20.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xab93…f0bbbacked OG | 25c | 210$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.6 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae8f…e8b1backed OG | 53c | 181.85$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.95 | 55 | 40%22 W · 33 L | -5.0wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xac93…0cfcbacked OG | 40c | 165$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 581 | 52.5%305 W · 276 L | -10.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb027…888fbacked Team Liquid | 65c | 152.78$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.79 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -4.3wins | -0.22per pick | 42cpaid | -59.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd855…c823backed Team Liquid | 62c | 133.87$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.87 | 35 | 57.1%20 W · 15 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd36…873bbacked OG | 24c | 110$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 405 | 39.3%159 W · 246 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd17d…d0eebacked Team Liquid | 64c | 100$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 192 | 46.4%89 W · 103 L | -6.4wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb358…122cbacked OG | 42c | 92.64$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.91 | 56 | 35.7%20 W · 36 L | -10.2wins | -0.18per pick | 54cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Team Liquid | 68c | 85$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.92 | 869 | 49%426 W · 443 L | -3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -15%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa541…d860backed OG | 19c | 83.15$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.71 | 30 | 3.3%1 W · 29 L | -3.6wins | -0.12per pick | 15cpaid | -81.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc0…699abacked Team Liquid | 51c | 79.8$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.1 | 641 | 23.4%150 W · 491 L | -18.6wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3703…2795backed OG | 31c | 79.41$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 153 | 41.2%63 W · 90 L | -7.6wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x31d8…4108backed Team Liquid | 77c | 77.44$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.44 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -3.0wins | -0.19per pick | 62cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xed88…6a3dbacked OG | 44c | 68.18$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a78…add7backed Team Liquid | 67c | 65.2$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.2 | 364 | 42.3%154 W · 210 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa49…6330backed Team Liquid | 63c | 61.9$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.9 | 111 | 57.7%64 W · 47 L | -4.6wins | -0.04per pick | 62cpaid | -6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ffc…8967backed Team Liquid | 64c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 220 | 33.6%74 W · 146 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae23…1bc4backed OG | 42c | 46.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -2.3wins | -0.20per pick | 45cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b7…fd5ebacked Team Liquid | 63c | 38.1$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.1 | 37 | 40.5%15 W · 22 L | -2.8wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x72aa…90e0backed Team Liquid | 56c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.3 | 628 | 41.1%258 W · 370 L | -17.8wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Team Liquid vs OG - Game 1 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: Team Liquid vs OG (BO3)Team Liquid won
- Dota 2: Team Liquid vs OG - Game 2 WinnerTeam Liquid won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.