Mls · resolved market
Will D.C. United SC win on 2026-05-13?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4c085857bcb91ae3a440fe803ae6202c02117e19b181b4eff988c8b8afc14405
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,936
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,055
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,936 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 60 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed No | 66c | 3,706$2,443 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,262.63 | 1,270 | 48%610 W · 660 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4bb2…a656backed Yes | 34c | 2,941$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$999.94 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Yes | 21c | 853.81$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.91 | 530 | 40.6%215 W · 315 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | +6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1df2…89a0backed Yes | 51c | 847.39$435 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$434.75 | 77 | 26%20 W · 57 L | -8.9wins | -0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfe02…1204backed No | 67c | 825.37$553 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$272.37 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed No | 66c | 660.6$436 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224.6 | 429 | 47.1%202 W · 227 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 74c | 617.35$456 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.37 | 483 | 44.9%217 W · 266 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa38e…8917backed No | 47c | 600$282 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$318 | 79 | 62%49 W · 30 L | +8.8wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +37.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc4a6…6d23backed Yes | 34c | 523.76$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.08 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +1.8wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +38.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 70c | 488.32$343 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.72 | 777 | 51.7%402 W · 375 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc551…fa51backed No | 49c | 317.38$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.7 | 89 | 71.9%64 W · 25 L | +17.2wins | +0.19per pick | 53cpaid | +51.7%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked Yes | 33c | 300$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.18 | 48 | 37.5%18 W · 30 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Yes | 34c | 295$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.3 | 141 | 29.8%42 W · 99 L | -9.1wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8351…9bebbacked Yes | 34c | 294.12$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 50 | 28%14 W · 36 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd16…5cf0backed Yes | 6c | 272$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.72 | 135 | 18.5%25 W · 110 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fd7…d5a3backed No | 67c | 253$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.79 | 109 | 60.6%66 W · 43 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d7f…86d2backed No | 46c | 250$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135 | 123 | 43.9%54 W · 69 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked No | 65c | 249.99$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.5 | 728 | 50.7%369 W · 359 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d6a…4adabacked Yes | 42c | 238.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.99 | 154 | 58.4%90 W · 64 L | +9.1wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Yes | 28c | 217.63$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.18 | 472 | 40.7%192 W · 280 L | -8.0wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Yes | 33c | 211.68$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.81 | 202 | 49%99 W · 103 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Yes | 40c | 208.61$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.86 | 1,444 | 36.8%532 W · 912 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…aa5abacked Yes | 55c | 205$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.4 | 126 | 67.5%85 W · 41 L | +11.2wins | +0.09per pick | 59cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ef…20ebbacked No | 69c | 200$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63 | 98 | 58.2%57 W · 41 L | +6.3wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 66c | 178.15$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.3 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed No | 65c | 175.84$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.54 | 702 | 49.7%349 W · 353 L | -7.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8de6…8b3cbacked No | 66c | 151.51$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.51 | 77 | 58.4%45 W · 32 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed No | 66c | 130.51$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.18 | 186 | 55.4%103 W · 83 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b78…473dbacked No | 79c | 126.05$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.45 | 222 | 69.4%154 W · 68 L | +31.4wins | +0.14per pick | 55cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xf009…19e9backed Yes | 34c | 102.94$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 243 | 26.3%64 W · 179 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Yes | 39c | 100.17$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.18 | 1,262 | 45.2%571 W · 691 L | -28.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Yes | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.72 | 413 | 39%161 W · 252 L | -8.1wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4572…47e7backed Yes | 35c | 100$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdebb…eedbbacked Yes | 31c | 100$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.38 | 49 | 49%24 W · 25 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe18a…fd87backed No | 67c | 100$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 102 | 43.1%44 W · 58 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Yes | 43c | 94.49$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.07 | 967 | 56.8%549 W · 418 L | +73.1wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe8c7…1942backed Yes | 23c | 86.96$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 20 | 10%2 W · 18 L | -1.8wins | -0.09per pick | 19cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa57…a128backed No | 70c | 85.87$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.87 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 72cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7fea…8f74backed No | 71c | 81.23$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.58 | 107 | 53.3%57 W · 50 L | +5.4wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Yes | 49c | 61.99$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.52 | 360 | 51.9%187 W · 173 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed No | 67c | 60$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.64 | 261 | 50.2%131 W · 130 L | -13.2wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1a29…16c5backed Yes | 34c | 58.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 84 | 65.5%55 W · 29 L | +16.4wins | +0.20per pick | 46cpaid | +60.6%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xf699…07e1backed Yes | 40c | 51.11$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.44 | 25 | 64%16 W · 9 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 58cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe524…d34fbacked Yes | 60c | 48.6$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.16 | 69 | 39.1%27 W · 42 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 65c | 40.26$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.09 | 971 | 46.1%448 W · 523 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc75b…3ea7backed Yes | 35c | 40.06$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.02 | 190 | 56.3%107 W · 83 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d27…c38cbacked No | 65c | 40.06$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.02 | 57 | 42.1%24 W · 33 L | -5.1wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -21%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked Yes | 31c | 38$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.78 | 376 | 49.7%187 W · 189 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed Yes | 31c | 35.45$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 372 | 49.2%183 W · 189 L | -12.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Yes | 34c | 35$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.86 | 783 | 44.4%348 W · 435 L | -30.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb530…6084backed Yes | 32c | 34.38$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52f2…5a5dbacked Yes | 61c | 32.98$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.12 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.14per pick | 52cpaid | +16%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x50e9…5efebacked Yes | 34c | 30$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 107 | 54.2%58 W · 49 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ce5…a07fbacked No | 50c | 26$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7511…582ebacked No | 80c | 25.63$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.13 | 190 | 52.1%99 W · 91 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed No | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 256 | 52.3%134 W · 122 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a25…8055backed No | 55c | 23.75$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.65 | 42 | 47.6%20 W · 22 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd840…1ec6backed No | 66c | 23$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.82 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +2.0wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +74.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No | 55c | 21$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.37 | 193 | 47.2%91 W · 102 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x03ba…bebabacked No | 68c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 208 | 49.5%103 W · 105 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will D.C. United SC win on 2026-05-13?this page
- Will Chicago Fire FC win on 2026-05-13?Yes won
- Will D.C. United SC vs. Chicago Fire FC end in a draw?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.