Mls · resolved market
Will Chicago Fire FC win on 2026-05-13?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x644a952220eee6065b9a5678fc8469cdfb002de7db605d551f7b654f0438c422
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,897
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,408
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,897 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 76 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Yes | 41c | 1,564$639 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$925.74 | 530 | 40.6%215 W · 315 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | +6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x39f6…abe1backed Yes | 62c | 920.98$573 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$347.57 | 79 | 74.7%59 W · 20 L | +10.7wins | +0.14per pick | 61cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked No | 37c | 819.1$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.54 | 923 | 46.6%430 W · 493 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed No | 11c | 740.88$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.44 | 1,444 | 36.8%532 W · 912 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Yes | 60c | 656.89$391 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$265.51 | 777 | 51.7%402 W · 375 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 59c | 550.7$325 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$325.21 | 971 | 46.1%448 W · 523 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba67…4727backed No | 59c | 500$295 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$295 | 98 | 48%47 W · 51 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75bd…0288backed Yes | 58c | 475.07$274 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201.35 | 85 | 60%51 W · 34 L | +9.1wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9fd7…d5a3backed No | 67c | 445.4$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 109 | 60.6%66 W · 43 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60ec…f7b0backed No | 57c | 433.52$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$246.24 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | -3.6wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -32%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0c3e…3c4cbacked Yes | 13c | 406.69$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$354.04 | 191 | 72.3%138 W · 53 L | +36.8wins | +0.19per pick | 53cpaid | +41.7%equal weight | 69+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x9079…b19bbacked Yes | 46c | 405.66$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220.23 | 166 | 57.2%95 W · 71 L | +12.4wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7b02…7939backed No | 59c | 356.73$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.47 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked No | 59c | 324.48$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.02 | 202 | 49%99 W · 103 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked No | 59c | 300.15$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.09 | 728 | 50.7%369 W · 359 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d93…b34dbacked Yes | 35c | 300$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195 | 100 | 43%43 W · 57 L | -6.1wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked Yes | 41c | 299.35$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.37 | 48 | 37.5%18 W · 30 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed No | 61c | 247.87$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.19 | 803 | 58%466 W · 337 L | +5.9wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d6a…4adabacked Yes | 41c | 243.89$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.9 | 154 | 58.4%90 W · 64 L | +9.1wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed No | 43c | 232.97$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.84 | 206 | 48.5%100 W · 106 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7fea…8f74backed Yes | 55c | 232.17$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.83 | 107 | 53.3%57 W · 50 L | +5.4wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9121…bd6cbacked Yes | 29c | 231.26$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.64 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.9wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +95.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc551…fa51backed Yes | 32c | 229$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.73 | 89 | 71.9%64 W · 25 L | +17.2wins | +0.19per pick | 53cpaid | +51.7%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed No | 59c | 208.77$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.17 | 702 | 49.7%349 W · 353 L | -7.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed No | 59c | 206.87$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.06 | 1,270 | 48%610 W · 660 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked No | 37c | 190.82$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.12 | 802 | 49.8%399 W · 403 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03ba…bebabacked Yes | 17c | 162.97$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.63 | 208 | 49.5%103 W · 105 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3101…e57fbacked No | 54c | 160$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.4 | 37 | 62.2%23 W · 14 L | +5.5wins | +0.15per pick | 47cpaid | +42.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4db3…c1eabacked Yes | 65c | 153.84$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.84 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | +2.9wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 34c | 151.13$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.62 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed No | 60c | 150.92$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.07 | 993 | 40.1%398 W · 595 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ae…74c0backed Yes | 79c | 126.77$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.21 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d7f…86d2backed Yes | 57c | 121.1$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.5 | 123 | 43.9%54 W · 69 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8728…0882backed Yes | 46c | 121$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.39 | 42 | 42.9%18 W · 24 L | -2.7wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed No | 62c | 115$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.82 | 783 | 44.4%348 W · 435 L | -30.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe062…4907backed Yes | 40c | 105$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +3.3wins | +0.23per pick | 48cpaid | +64.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3fe8…1fd3backed Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | +3.4wins | +0.15per pick | 15cpaid | +316.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa38e…8917backed No | 73c | 100$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.1 | 79 | 62%49 W · 30 L | +8.8wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +37.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0362…449ebacked No | 61c | 100$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61 | 107 | 57%61 W · 46 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked No | 58c | 91.45$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.01 | 1,009 | 46.2%466 W · 543 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Yes | 35c | 88.85$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.81 | 413 | 39%161 W · 252 L | -8.1wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc33d…0d40backed No | 53c | 82.2$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.66 | 102 | 49%50 W · 52 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0370…d000backed Yes | 35c | 79.7$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.64 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.6wins | +0.13per pick | 45cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Yes | 65c | 78.22$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.16 | 472 | 40.7%192 W · 280 L | -8.0wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Yes | 41c | 78$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.38 | 261 | 50.2%131 W · 130 L | -13.2wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x30ce…fdcebacked No | 65c | 73.62$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.8 | 147 | 61.2%90 W · 57 L | +20.8wins | +0.14per pick | 47cpaid | +43.6%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Yes | 50c | 71$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.5 | 304 | 44.1%134 W · 170 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf2d2…a1cdbacked No | 56c | 64.68$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.18 | 114 | 54.4%62 W · 52 L | +4.2wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2709…9e3bbacked Yes | 41c | 60.98$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.98 | 58 | 46.6%27 W · 31 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd93…56c0backed No | 73c | 60$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 187 | 74.3%139 W · 48 L | +33.5wins | +0.18per pick | 56cpaid | +39.4%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xa66f…f5a3backed No | 59c | 59$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.81 | 87 | 60.9%53 W · 34 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed Yes | 61c | 54.82$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.58 | 549 | 49%269 W · 280 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c97…c20bbacked Yes | 39c | 51.28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.28 | 53 | 54.7%29 W · 24 L | +4.2wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0d27…c38cbacked No | 60c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 57 | 42.1%24 W · 33 L | -5.1wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -21%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0178…3f7abacked No | 69c | 49.05$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.84 | 75 | 64%48 W · 27 L | +8.8wins | +0.12per pick | 52cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x551c…fe91backed Yes | 24c | 46.67$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.47 | 258 | 51.2%132 W · 126 L | +16.2wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa1a7…ace4backed Yes | 63c | 45$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 161 | 59.6%96 W · 65 L | +18.4wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked No | 59c | 38.74$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.86 | 714 | 43.7%312 W · 402 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8afa…28f0backed Yes | 64c | 37.13$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.37 | 57 | 59.6%34 W · 23 L | +5.3wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed Yes | 44c | 36.76$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.48 | 168 | 53.6%90 W · 78 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No | 43c | 36.25$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.53 | 193 | 47.2%91 W · 102 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd0dc…ffadbacked No | 63c | 36$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.68 | 115 | 63.5%73 W · 42 L | +6.4wins | +0.06per pick | 58cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Yes | 59c | 33.9$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.9 | 256 | 52.3%134 W · 122 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8de6…8b3cbacked No | 61c | 33.53$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.45 | 77 | 58.4%45 W · 32 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa299…ac77backed Yes | 42c | 31.19$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.19 | 67 | 46.3%31 W · 36 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a25…8055backed Yes | 41c | 28.06$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.52 | 42 | 47.6%20 W · 22 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked No | 49c | 26.26$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.81 | 30 | 3.3%1 W · 29 L | -12.3wins | -0.41per pick | 44cpaid | -94.4%equal weight | 25-0.22 edge/pick |
| 0xeda9…f624backed No | 59c | 25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.75 | 132 | 59.1%78 W · 54 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe026…0404backed Yes | 41c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.59per pick | 41cpaid | +145.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed No | 64c | 23.66$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.12 | 451 | 40.4%182 W · 269 L | -18.7wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed Yes | 46c | 23.37$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.62 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -2.5wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa574…0559backed No | 57c | 21.5$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.16 | 32 | 59.4%19 W · 13 L | +2.1wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4f4b…0b44backed No | 78c | 18.86$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.71 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.12per pick | 59cpaid | +44.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Yes | 65c | 18$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.3 | 871 | 54.6%476 W · 395 L | +34.2wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea87…c5a0backed Yes | 80c | 15.5$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.1 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 73cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b47…2d4bbacked Yes | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 65cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Chicago Fire FC win on 2026-05-13?this page
- Will D.C. United SC vs. Chicago Fire FC end in a draw?No won
- Will D.C. United SC win on 2026-05-13?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.