Bundesliga · resolved market
SV Werder Bremen vs. BV Borussia 09 Dortmund: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4c179d7c1775e3835c4fc4775b46bd5c24feeccefddcf95cf970bd6f5ce406dd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,445
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,988
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,445 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 62 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 35c | 6,799$2,353 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,353.37 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 43c | 1,804$783 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$783.31 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x31c1…7047backed Over | 59c | 1,695$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$694.92 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | -2.3wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Over | 71c | 1,467$1,042 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$425.09 | 283 | 45.2%128 W · 155 L | +6.0wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…d4bfbacked Over | 80c | 1,250$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250 | 12 | 83.3%10 W · 2 L | +1.9wins | +0.16per pick | 68cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3c80…93b5backed Over | 59c | 847.46$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$347.46 | 55 | 38.2%21 W · 34 L | -5.3wins | -0.10per pick | 48cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7da4…f0a4backed Under | 16c | 777.07$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.4 | 38 | 7.9%3 W · 35 L | -4.5wins | -0.12per pick | 20cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xec56…1816backed Under | 16c | 528$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.48 | 92 | 48.9%45 W · 47 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e5a…154cbacked Over | 66c | 403.02$266 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.03 | 89 | 55.1%49 W · 40 L | +4.4wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0273…1867backed Under | 13c | 384.62$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 40 | 25%10 W · 30 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b76…c036backed Under | 15c | 369$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.62 | 20 | 5%1 W · 19 L | -2.4wins | -0.12per pick | 17cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8c0d…b612backed Over | 66c | 333.33$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.33 | 142 | 60.6%86 W · 56 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa80f…4fa0backed Over | 40c | 318.39$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.52 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +89.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Under | 33c | 311.15$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.25 | 222 | 45.9%102 W · 120 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9db0…0f6abacked Over | 69c | 300$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93 | 53 | 56.6%30 W · 23 L | +4.8wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +20%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ca…117abacked Over | 50c | 300$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 53 | 49.1%26 W · 27 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b43…0714backed Over | 51c | 294.12$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.12 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4871…0742backed Over | 75c | 266.67$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.67 | 24 | 66.7%16 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f29…f03dbacked Over | 59c | 254.24$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.24 | 98 | 56.1%55 W · 43 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8374…f183backed Over | 65c | 240$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84 | 12 | 83.3%10 W · 2 L | +3.0wins | +0.25per pick | 58cpaid | +42.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6562…4e48backed Over | 58c | 216.69$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.51 | 110 | 65.5%72 W · 38 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde56…c2f9backed Under | 39c | 210.29$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.42 | 50 | 40%20 W · 30 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +34.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Over | 73c | 200$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 388 | 45.6%177 W · 211 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 48c | 162.54$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.54 | 1,305 | 40.8%532 W · 773 L | -42.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf27…2bbdbacked Over | 59c | 144.2$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.12 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ab8…e32fbacked Over | 64c | 142.18$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.18 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -2.7wins | -0.24per pick | 70cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0176…910ebacked Over | 36c | 138.89$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.89 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc68b…3c2dbacked Over | 67c | 132.84$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.84 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 50c | 128.9$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.96 | 481 | 41.8%201 W · 280 L | -5.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0520…3efdbacked Over | 75c | 122.7$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.67 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 62c | 106.98$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.9 | 640 | 43.9%281 W · 359 L | -9.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Over | 67c | 100$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 88 | 44.3%39 W · 49 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a4b…bbcabacked Over | 55c | 100$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 346 | 55.5%192 W · 154 L | +9.8wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e80…c709backed Over | 59c | 84.32$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.57 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.28per pick | 52cpaid | +37.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…fdc0backed Over | 28c | 84.1$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.78 | 36 | 27.8%10 W · 26 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed Over | 53c | 82.6$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.5 | 82 | 24.4%20 W · 62 L | -6.7wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Under | 15c | 69.1$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.22 | 435 | 32.2%140 W · 295 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fde…0258backed Under | 48c | 68.75$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 77 | 50.6%39 W · 38 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f2c…9d16backed Over | 44c | 68.18$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.18 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x176e…dbe1backed Over | 59c | 67.8$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Over | 64c | 61.7$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.38 | 531 | 40.7%216 W · 315 L | -13.3wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e75…0143backed Under | 42c | 58.13$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.41 | 48 | 29.2%14 W · 34 L | -4.8wins | -0.10per pick | 39cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9660…ba56backed Over | 52c | 57.69$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.69 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +1.8wins | +0.15per pick | 60cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xde28…8d20backed Over | 46c | 53.97$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.97 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x004c…ab0cbacked Under | 29c | 51.04$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.01 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.15per pick | 49cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x134c…eeefbacked Over | 58c | 50.66$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.28 | 35 | 57.1%20 W · 15 L | +5.9wins | +0.17per pick | 40cpaid | +40.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb2b7…37d5backed Over | 41c | 36.59$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.59 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | +2.9wins | +0.11per pick | 41cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xde25…c0a5backed Under | 39c | 35.98$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.94 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf38c…d9f2backed Over | 50c | 35.9$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.95 | 117 | 48.7%57 W · 60 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa24f…7c58backed Over | 74c | 35$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75be…3bbabacked Over | 59c | 25.42$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.42 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c18…c208backed Over | 71c | 24.99$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.15 | 54 | 61.1%33 W · 21 L | +3.8wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed Over | 63c | 23.58$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.81 | 109 | 56%61 W · 48 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeaf5…e0d5backed Under | 47c | 23.56$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.07 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8afa…28f0backed Under | 48c | 21.71$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 35 | 54.3%19 W · 16 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf05b…3c59backed Over | 59c | 20.34$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.34 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 48cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1171…16cfbacked Over | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb63a…7637backed Over | 54c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 63 | 69.8%44 W · 19 L | +4.7wins | +0.08per pick | 62cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Over | 56c | 18$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.92 | 395 | 58.7%232 W · 163 L | +27.4wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x62a8…4a14backed Over | 74c | 16.14$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.14 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 73cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c78…e29bbacked Over | 73c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.05 | 50 | 66%33 W · 17 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9293…b5fdbacked Over | 80c | 13.94$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.84 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 73cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- SV Werder Bremen vs. BV Borussia 09 Dortmund: O/U 1.5this page
- SV Werder Bremen vs. BV Borussia 09 Dortmund: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- SV Werder Bremen vs. BV Borussia 09 Dortmund: O/U 0.5Over won
- SV Werder Bremen vs. BV Borussia 09 Dortmund: O/U 2.5Under won
- SV Werder Bremen vs. BV Borussia 09 Dortmund: O/U 3.5Under won
- SV Werder Bremen vs. BV Borussia 09 Dortmund: O/U 4.5Under won
- SV Werder Bremen vs. BV Borussia 09 Dortmund: O/U 5.5Under won
- Spread: BV Borussia 09 Dortmund (-1.5)BV Borussia 09 Dortmund won
- Spread: BV Borussia 09 Dortmund (-2.5)SV Werder Bremen won
- Spread: SV Werder Bremen (-1.5)BV Borussia 09 Dortmund won
- Spread: SV Werder Bremen (-2.5)BV Borussia 09 Dortmund won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.