Bundesliga · resolved market
SV Werder Bremen vs. BV Borussia 09 Dortmund: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x632d74010442c15ea4cc55159dd142b7d9966b789f11b6fd77cd5f53618a141b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,185
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,710
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,185 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb184…b6c6backed Over | 43c | 3,718$1,598 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,597.73 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.21per pick | 35cpaid | -64.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 62c | 2,650$1,632 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,017.81 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd66…fb6dbacked Over | 35c | 2,300$813 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$813 | 111 | 42.3%47 W · 64 L | +6.3wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 73c | 1,122$817 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$305.16 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Over | 19c | 1,000$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.1 | 283 | 45.2%128 W · 155 L | +6.0wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa374…9709backed Under | 52c | 1,000$520 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$480 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | +2.3wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x160b…4296backed Over | 48c | 998.68$479 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$479.36 | 387 | 48.3%187 W · 200 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 55c | 613.39$335 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$278.03 | 1,305 | 40.8%532 W · 773 L | -42.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec56…1816backed Under | 55c | 250.64$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.79 | 92 | 48.9%45 W · 47 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xafca…92b4backed Over | 49c | 240.22$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.71 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 51c | 240.22$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.71 | 298 | 55.4%165 W · 133 L | +11.2wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Over | 12c | 224.55$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.95 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -1.8wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8508…c22fbacked Over | 48c | 207.98$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.25 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Under | 51c | 139.96$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.58 | 287 | 55.1%158 W · 129 L | +12.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xde56…c2f9backed Under | 56c | 110.88$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.86 | 50 | 40%20 W · 30 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +34.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd424…bf7bbacked Over | 49c | 102.04$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa422…d210backed Under | 52c | 96.15$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3d…316cbacked Over | 47c | 74.99$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.25 | 72 | 47.2%34 W · 38 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9154…8f2dbacked Over | 43c | 57.7$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.81 | 59 | 42.4%25 W · 34 L | +2.7wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Under | 62c | 51.42$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.31 | 435 | 32.2%140 W · 295 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x059d…10e3backed Over | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | -3.4wins | -0.11per pick | 46cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4a7d…695fbacked Under | 52c | 48.08$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.08 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.20per pick | 49cpaid | -47.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc61d…3933backed Over | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 64 | 28.1%18 W · 46 L | -3.9wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b5…c8f8backed Under | 67c | 30.75$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 54 | 29.6%16 W · 38 L | -6.9wins | -0.13per pick | 42cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3323…f667backed Over | 49c | 30.61$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +1.6wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 63c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.07 | 640 | 43.9%281 W · 359 L | -9.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfece…ef64backed Under | 55c | 23.15$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.42 | 38 | 26.3%10 W · 28 L | -3.1wins | -0.08per pick | 35cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbce5…02f1backed Over | 45c | 23.15$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.42 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05b7…c24abacked Over | 47c | 22.11$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.47 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | -5.2wins | -0.17per pick | 59cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xde25…c0a5backed Under | 53c | 20.19$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.53 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- SV Werder Bremen vs. BV Borussia 09 Dortmund: O/U 3.5this page
- SV Werder Bremen vs. BV Borussia 09 Dortmund: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- SV Werder Bremen vs. BV Borussia 09 Dortmund: O/U 0.5Over won
- SV Werder Bremen vs. BV Borussia 09 Dortmund: O/U 1.5Over won
- SV Werder Bremen vs. BV Borussia 09 Dortmund: O/U 2.5Under won
- SV Werder Bremen vs. BV Borussia 09 Dortmund: O/U 4.5Under won
- SV Werder Bremen vs. BV Borussia 09 Dortmund: O/U 5.5Under won
- Spread: BV Borussia 09 Dortmund (-1.5)BV Borussia 09 Dortmund won
- Spread: BV Borussia 09 Dortmund (-2.5)SV Werder Bremen won
- Spread: SV Werder Bremen (-1.5)BV Borussia 09 Dortmund won
- Spread: SV Werder Bremen (-2.5)BV Borussia 09 Dortmund won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.