TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Bundesliga · resolved market

Spread: BV Borussia 09 Dortmund (-1.5)

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
BV Borussia 09 Dortmundof BV Borussia 09 Dortmund, SV Werder Bremen
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$36,293
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$38,349

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $36,293 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xa8e0…ad50backed SV Werder Bremen74c23,702$17,539 inLost-$17,539.461428.6%4 W · 10 L-3.6wins-0.26per pick54cpaid-46.4%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x2a69…d2f7backed BV Borussia 09 Dortmund26c20,470$5,327 inWon+$15,142.6743532.2%140 W · 295 L-2.9wins-0.01per pick33cpaid-9.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0346…52a5backed BV Borussia 09 Dortmund24c2,645$638 inWon+$2,006.4828345.2%128 W · 155 L+6.0wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-5.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed SV Werder Bremen77c1,851$1,417 inLost-$1,417.163,28442.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L-74.0wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-18.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed SV Werder Bremen74c999.99$740 inLost-$739.9929855.4%165 W · 133 L+11.2wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+7.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf984…24cebacked BV Borussia 09 Dortmund17c850$145 inWon+$705.5944.4%4 W · 5 L+0.9wins+0.09per pick35cpaid+38.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6df5…6430backed BV Borussia 09 Dortmund23c700$161 inWon+$5395024%12 W · 38 L+1.6wins+0.03per pick21cpaid-2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xec56…1816backed SV Werder Bremen78c474.49$371 inLost-$371.449248.9%45 W · 47 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x424e…263bbacked BV Borussia 09 Dortmund26c440$114 inWon+$325.628755.1%158 W · 129 L+12.3wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+8.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0273…1867backed BV Borussia 09 Dortmund28c357.14$100 inWon+$257.144025%10 W · 30 L-1.5wins-0.04per pick29cpaid-4.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7138…8c89backed BV Borussia 09 Dortmund26c306.98$80 inWon+$227.1611338.9%44 W · 69 L-3.7wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-9.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5028…91c5backed BV Borussia 09 Dortmund29c299.48$87 inWon+$212.488224.4%20 W · 62 L-6.7wins-0.08per pick33cpaid-28.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xde56…c2f9backed BV Borussia 09 Dortmund30c227.6$67 inWon+$160.35040%20 W · 30 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick41cpaid+34.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x27f7…44b0backed SV Werder Bremen74c223$165 inLost-$165.027443.2%32 W · 42 L-9.2wins-0.12per pick56cpaid-21.7%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked BV Borussia 09 Dortmund26c222.21$58 inWon+$164.441,68145.2%759 W · 922 L+6.8wins0.00per pick45cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x325f…4511backed SV Werder Bremen75c198.97$150 inLost-$15053140.7%216 W · 315 L-13.3wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-10.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3d1a…ebcebacked BV Borussia 09 Dortmund26c186.15$48 inWon+$137.75728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.1wins-0.15per pick44cpaid-18.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd5bf…f0ccbacked BV Borussia 09 Dortmund73c163.41$120 inWon+$43.716665.2%43 W · 23 L+12.5wins+0.19per pick46cpaid+49.8%equal weight65+0.14 edge/pick
0xa710…f1ccbacked BV Borussia 09 Dortmund28c160.71$45 inWon+$115.7117930.2%54 W · 125 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick31cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x200f…7a96backed BV Borussia 09 Dortmund26c159$41 inWon+$117.661,08350.8%550 W · 533 L+8.2wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xba67…4727backed BV Borussia 09 Dortmund26c149$39 inWon+$110.2615747.1%74 W · 83 L+0.1wins0.00per pick47cpaid+3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7da4…f0a4backed SV Werder Bremen27c135$37 inLost-$37.05387.9%3 W · 35 L-4.5wins-0.12per pick20cpaid-32.6%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x77bc…b91bbacked BV Borussia 09 Dortmund19c134.65$25 inWon+$109.351,30540.8%532 W · 773 L-42.3wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-21.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x84f7…ade1backed BV Borussia 09 Dortmund22c130$29 inWon+$101.418545.9%85 W · 100 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+7.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe0ec…a9c4backed BV Borussia 09 Dortmund35c84.35$30 inWon+$54.65683.3%5 W · 1 L+2.2wins+0.37per pick47cpaid+83.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xa07d…a037backed BV Borussia 09 Dortmund24c83.46$20 inWon+$63.5828822.6%65 W · 223 L-11.1wins-0.04per pick26cpaid-14.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe465…7f38backed BV Borussia 09 Dortmund20c75$15 inWon+$601100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.80per pick20cpaid+400%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3eb4…9cb8backed BV Borussia 09 Dortmund26c72$19 inWon+$53.28366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.34per pick33cpaid+135.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x10ad…827cbacked BV Borussia 09 Dortmund22c50$11 inWon+$39757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.11per pick46cpaid+44.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8b76…c036backed SV Werder Bremen28c42.76$12 inLost-$11.91205%1 W · 19 L-2.4wins-0.12per pick17cpaid-36.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed SV Werder Bremen80c40.91$33 inLost-$32.731,01344.5%451 W · 562 L-8.2wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-20.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xce2b…08fabacked BV Borussia 09 Dortmund34c34.6$12 inWon+$22.8438055.8%212 W · 168 L-0.9wins0.00per pick56cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x40f5…27acbacked SV Werder Bremen72c19.99$14 inLost-$14.410%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.72per pick72cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2e73…3f4ebacked SV Werder Bremen74c17.58$13 inLost-$13.017959.5%47 W · 32 L+1.7wins+0.02per pick57cpaid+4.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.