Bundesliga · resolved market
SV Werder Bremen vs. BV Borussia 09 Dortmund: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8b1880005d2296fbbc9f0e71f816e9f63e0762e7e6f3ef21afa5cf602fa758d0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $26,572
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $31,306
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,572 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 74 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 46c | 5,367$2,471 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,895.86 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5f0…dc1dbacked Over | 39c | 2,000$780 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$780 | 100 | 41%41 W · 59 L | +4.0wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 53c | 1,924$1,011 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$913.76 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b5…a2a7backed Under | 31c | 1,613$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,112.9 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +2.0wins | +0.15per pick | 38cpaid | +53.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5c76…862dbacked Under | 31c | 1,613$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,112.9 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 41cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x31c1…7047backed Over | 66c | 1,513$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | -2.3wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x160b…4296backed Over | 69c | 1,450$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000.42 | 387 | 48.3%187 W · 200 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x600b…c7e0backed Over | 71c | 1,430$1,015 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,015.19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.71per pick | 71cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21e8…b85ebacked Over | 70c | 1,429$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.14per pick | 58cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdb25…eb12backed Under | 31c | 1,238$384 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$854.45 | 49 | 38.8%19 W · 30 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 29c | 846.9$248 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$598.69 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ca6…6a20backed Over | 57c | 785.96$448 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$448 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Over | 63c | 763.87$479 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$479.07 | 283 | 45.2%128 W · 155 L | +6.0wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa5b…9b61backed Under | 31c | 735.02$228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$507.17 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +2.9wins | +0.18per pick | 38cpaid | +52.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb113…8bc6backed Over | 69c | 555$383 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$382.95 | 143 | 64.3%92 W · 51 L | +14.8wins | +0.10per pick | 54cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc62d…8fd8backed Over | 50c | 539.72$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$269.86 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7138…8c89backed Over | 69c | 522.57$361 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$360.57 | 113 | 38.9%44 W · 69 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed Over | 42c | 434.66$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.38 | 82 | 24.4%20 W · 62 L | -6.7wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa54d…deb8backed Under | 76c | 381.58$290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.58 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | -7.1wins | -0.26per pick | 56cpaid | -49.9%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 64c | 289.37$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.52 | 1,305 | 40.8%532 W · 773 L | -42.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f29…f03dbacked Over | 61c | 286.89$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175 | 98 | 56.1%55 W · 43 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa7c2…73bfbacked Under | 75c | 266.94$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.94 | 32 | 68.8%22 W · 10 L | +4.2wins | +0.13per pick | 56cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xde56…c2f9backed Under | 38c | 264.81$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.81 | 50 | 40%20 W · 30 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +34.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Under | 30c | 209.6$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.13 | 287 | 55.1%158 W · 129 L | +12.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Over | 46c | 200$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92 | 388 | 45.6%177 W · 211 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d63…2e49backed Over | 34c | 199.99$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68 | 26 | 65.4%17 W · 9 L | +2.7wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Over | 32c | 197.79$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.29 | 337 | 37.4%126 W · 211 L | -11.2wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a6b…68a0backed Over | 69c | 193.99$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.85 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Over | 69c | 193.48$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.5 | 264 | 45.5%120 W · 144 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd092…342abacked Over | 56c | 179$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.24 | 187 | 59.4%111 W · 76 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ca…117abacked Over | 45c | 155.56$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 53 | 49.1%26 W · 27 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf92f…1a35backed Over | 31c | 154.84$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -2.0wins | -0.12per pick | 44cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Under | 56c | 135.43$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.08 | 531 | 40.7%216 W · 315 L | -13.3wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec56…1816backed Under | 34c | 133.12$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.86 | 92 | 48.9%45 W · 47 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98bd…8a55backed Over | 61c | 114.75$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -22%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 29c | 113$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.23 | 1,083 | 50.8%550 W · 533 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Under | 60c | 110$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 435 | 32.2%140 W · 295 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fde…0258backed Over | 52c | 89.86$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.73 | 77 | 50.6%39 W · 38 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x697e…9904backed Under | 57c | 87.72$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.72 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -2.4wins | -0.11per pick | 50cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked Under | 30c | 81.75$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.22 | 420 | 46.4%195 W · 225 L | -10.1wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a4b…bbcabacked Over | 59c | 80$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.2 | 346 | 55.5%192 W · 154 L | +9.8wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde28…8d20backed Over | 24c | 78.22$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7736…c991backed Over | 70c | 77.84$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.49 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 69cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc253…5800backed Over | 52c | 76.72$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 42 | 69%29 W · 13 L | +5.2wins | +0.12per pick | 57cpaid | +25%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc311…c154backed Over | 69c | 72.46$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x621b…853fbacked Over | 28c | 71.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed Under | 30c | 71.43$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 330 | 47.3%156 W · 174 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c18…c208backed Over | 48c | 70$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.9 | 54 | 61.1%33 W · 21 L | +3.8wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc263…1e83backed Under | 31c | 68.36$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.17 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -20%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde25…c0a5backed Under | 43c | 66.55$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.76 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa1a7…ace4backed Under | 48c | 60$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.2 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | +3.4wins | +0.11per pick | 47cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9605…a2c4backed Under | 31c | 57.77$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.86 | 37 | 35.1%13 W · 24 L | -5.3wins | -0.14per pick | 50cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x958d…3501backed Under | 78c | 51.28$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.28 | 59 | 52.5%31 W · 28 L | -7.4wins | -0.13per pick | 65cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x004c…ab0cbacked Over | 41c | 50.86$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.85 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.15per pick | 49cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1633…1e55backed Over | 61c | 50$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.5 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -2.2wins | -0.20per pick | 29cpaid | -73.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4f…9804backed Over | 69c | 49.97$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.48 | 168 | 46.4%78 W · 90 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb435…b97cbacked Over | 37c | 49.27$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.07 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc551…fa51backed Under | 42c | 44.4$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.85 | 62 | 64.5%40 W · 22 L | +7.2wins | +0.12per pick | 53cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 55c | 43.57$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.77 | 640 | 43.9%281 W · 359 L | -9.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ab8…e32fbacked Over | 58c | 43.1$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -2.7wins | -0.24per pick | 70cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0a16…9d73backed Under | 31c | 42.81$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.54 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffac…d469backed Over | 36c | 41$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.96 | 60 | 35%21 W · 39 L | -6.4wins | -0.11per pick | 46cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9ae4…e4a2backed Under | 31c | 35.43$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.44 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Over | 69c | 35.24$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.14 | 496 | 47.4%235 W · 261 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3ad8…5004backed Over | 58c | 34.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Over | 58c | 34.4$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.95 | 395 | 58.7%232 W · 163 L | +27.4wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 69c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.3 | 481 | 41.8%201 W · 280 L | -5.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23e2…9ecdbacked Over | 47c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37a1…c13bbacked Over | 70c | 28.57$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.39per pick | 64cpaid | -60.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3a4c…ad2fbacked Over | 70c | 28.17$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.72 | 51 | 52.9%27 W · 24 L | -6.3wins | -0.12per pick | 65cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xef18…4d70backed Over | 58c | 21.71$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.59 | 164 | 64%105 W · 59 L | +28.5wins | +0.17per pick | 47cpaid | +49.2%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b5…c8f8backed Under | 54c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.28 | 54 | 29.6%16 W · 38 L | -6.9wins | -0.13per pick | 42cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked Under | 73c | 17.58$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.83 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.13per pick | 57cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc718…64a8backed Over | 70c | 14.66$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.26 | 36 | 58.3%21 W · 15 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 65cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- SV Werder Bremen vs. BV Borussia 09 Dortmund: O/U 2.5this page
- SV Werder Bremen vs. BV Borussia 09 Dortmund: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- SV Werder Bremen vs. BV Borussia 09 Dortmund: O/U 0.5Over won
- SV Werder Bremen vs. BV Borussia 09 Dortmund: O/U 1.5Over won
- SV Werder Bremen vs. BV Borussia 09 Dortmund: O/U 3.5Under won
- SV Werder Bremen vs. BV Borussia 09 Dortmund: O/U 4.5Under won
- SV Werder Bremen vs. BV Borussia 09 Dortmund: O/U 5.5Under won
- Spread: BV Borussia 09 Dortmund (-1.5)BV Borussia 09 Dortmund won
- Spread: BV Borussia 09 Dortmund (-2.5)SV Werder Bremen won
- Spread: SV Werder Bremen (-1.5)BV Borussia 09 Dortmund won
- Spread: SV Werder Bremen (-2.5)BV Borussia 09 Dortmund won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.