Champions League · resolved market
Will Qarabag win on 2025-09-16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4c2790f60b197915980df4d946b03c3136f897b628b88411ed15455790e58f86
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Champions Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $434,483
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $447,927
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $434,483 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Champions League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Champions League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2635…5408backed Yes | 6c | 342,185$20,531 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$321,653.9 | 35 | 22.9%8 W · 27 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fba…d08abacked Yes | 7c | 20,000$1,400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18,599.98 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | +87.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8926…203dbacked Yes | 7c | 4,300$301 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,999 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.93per pick | 7cpaid | +1,328.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x90ba…63f3backed Yes | 6c | 4,050$243 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,807 | 402 | 22.9%92 W · 310 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | +9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 49c | 3,266$1,604 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,604.06 | 1,596 | 39.8%636 W · 960 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb701…7cf6backed Yes | 5c | 2,240$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,129.56 | 84 | 33.3%28 W · 56 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +35%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcef7…e7d7backed Yes | 2c | 2,017$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,967.56 | 127 | 37%47 W · 80 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c2a…65dcbacked Yes | 1c | 2,000$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,975.99 | 104 | 19.2%20 W · 84 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +41.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x33c2…9818backed Yes | 3c | 1,800$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,754.99 | 108 | 45.4%49 W · 59 L | +3.9wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x20da…e704backed Yes | 12c | 1,670$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,469.99 | 46 | 21.7%10 W · 36 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 19cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3134…1b18backed Yes | 6c | 1,667$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,566.67 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +2.4wins | +0.12per pick | 33cpaid | +87.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf778…2f09backed Yes | 7c | 1,400$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,302 | 67 | 34.3%23 W · 44 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4db0…e467backed Yes | 4c | 1,292$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,242.23 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | +153.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 6c | 1,249$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,174.06 | 2,101 | 43.6%917 W · 1,184 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x17d4…d3aabacked Yes | 7c | 1,071$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$996.43 | 23 | 13%3 W · 20 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | +183.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x41e0…a8e0backed Yes | 6c | 800$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$752 | 40 | 30%12 W · 28 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | +28.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa645…0be6backed No | 14c | 712.86$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.8 | 60 | 28.3%17 W · 43 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e49…63f2backed Yes | 7c | 440$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$409.2 | 174 | 26.4%46 W · 128 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89d1…6448backed Yes | 11c | 363.64$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$323.64 | 45 | 35.6%16 W · 29 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5532…c6dbbacked Yes | 6c | 335.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$315.67 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.16per pick | 12cpaid | +181.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c04…1844backed Yes | 16c | 315.06$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$265.06 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe31a…adffbacked Yes | 6c | 300$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$282 | 48 | 39.6%19 W · 29 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +62.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a4c…6579backed No | 12c | 299.99$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.3 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | +1.9wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe671…a682backed No | 19c | 299.99$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 94 | 44.7%42 W · 52 L | +5.5wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9fb3…2aa9backed Yes | 79c | 250.04$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.26 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 73cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe233…14a3backed Yes | 80c | 250$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 100 | 50%50 W · 50 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f7…2abfbacked Yes | 6c | 225.01$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$211.51 | 139 | 27.3%38 W · 101 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa270…42c9backed Yes | 6c | 224.88$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$211.39 | 38 | 34.2%13 W · 25 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +24.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9977…085fbacked Yes | 7c | 180.14$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.53 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e09…d8c0backed Yes | 14c | 173.75$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.75 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.32per pick | 28cpaid | +160.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8452…e978backed Yes | 12c | 170$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.9 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Yes | 6c | 167$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.98 | 293 | 34.5%101 W · 192 L | +15.8wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb42e…482fbacked Yes | 76c | 157.56$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.13 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9a2…a79abacked Yes | 7c | 152.14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.49 | 56 | 30.4%17 W · 39 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked No | 66c | 150$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.25 | 291 | 42.3%123 W · 168 L | -8.1wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedb1…3fddbacked Yes | 14c | 136.69$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.69 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | +4.2wins | +0.13per pick | 28cpaid | +30%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdb19…21e4backed Yes | 79c | 126.74$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.74 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79cc…8026backed No | 21c | 95.69$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 61 | 54.1%33 W · 28 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Yes | 78c | 90$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.14 | 217 | 44.7%97 W · 120 L | -8.5wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b87…a487backed Yes | 13c | 80$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.28 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +128.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56bb…8e6bbacked Yes | 78c | 77.46$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.65 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b1a…bf3abacked Yes | 80c | 64.97$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.99 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 70cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7dce…38ecbacked Yes | 80c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xacdf…0ec4backed Yes | 77c | 13.98$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.18 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4174…feffbacked Yes | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 64cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Champions League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Qarabag win on 2025-09-16?this page
- Will Benfica vs. Qarabag end in a draw?No won
- Will Benfica win on 2025-09-16?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.