Champions League · resolved market
Will Benfica vs. Qarabag end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x048c525328e779eb8188279d8c3443a9e9ef08091581073444c336c59e7e475c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Champions Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $86,745
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $82,524
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $86,745 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Champions League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Champions League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb2b2…c086backed Yes | 0c | 54,800$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x06bf…a9ddbacked Yes | 14c | 7,150$1,001 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,001 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fba…d08abacked Yes | 12c | 4,596$552 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$551.53 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | +87.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 46c | 4,398$2,041 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,356.4 | 1,511 | 40.2%608 W · 903 L | -6.7wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -16%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3510…50bfbacked Yes | 14c | 2,860$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d27…76d8backed Yes | 13c | 2,000$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260 | 129 | 21.7%28 W · 101 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe0f0…60dabacked Yes | 56c | 1,838$1,027 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,026.87 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Yes | 14c | 1,514$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.23 | 149 | 52.3%78 W · 71 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94fb…d6cbbacked Yes | 13c | 1,000$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 190 | 28.9%55 W · 135 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x20da…e704backed Yes | 17c | 833.53$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.7 | 46 | 21.7%10 W · 36 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 19cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3134…1b18backed Yes | 13c | 769.23$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +2.4wins | +0.12per pick | 33cpaid | +87.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x41e0…a8e0backed Yes | 15c | 700$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 40 | 30%12 W · 28 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | +28.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 14c | 630$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.2 | 1,994 | 43.9%875 W · 1,119 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe655…0bb4backed Yes | 58c | 560.54$324 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$324.46 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 68cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c7a…7625backed Yes | 54c | 556.86$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.28per pick | 48cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc9d1…2b9ebacked Yes | 25c | 400.2$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 47 | 40.4%19 W · 28 L | -3.9wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9e49…63f2backed Yes | 14c | 400$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 174 | 26.4%46 W · 128 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2fce…28f8backed Yes | 54c | 331.49$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.01 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +45%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x76c8…ba09backed Yes | 11c | 310.76$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe233…14a3backed Yes | 44c | 301.36$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.2 | 100 | 50%50 W · 50 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89d1…6448backed Yes | 15c | 266.67$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 45 | 35.6%16 W · 29 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b15…a031backed Yes | 54c | 209.33$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.2 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa468…816ebacked Yes | 13c | 204.23$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.55 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89a8…c206backed Yes | 51c | 196.46$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcec6…47c1backed Yes | 51c | 196.46$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56bb…8e6bbacked Yes | 54c | 185.87$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedb1…3fddbacked Yes | 12c | 166.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | +4.2wins | +0.13per pick | 28cpaid | +30%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9fb3…2aa9backed Yes | 67c | 149.55$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 73cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3211…49e2backed Yes | 13c | 127.14$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x26ab…41c1backed Yes | 14c | 107.14$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 34 | 26.5%9 W · 25 L | -6.3wins | -0.19per pick | 45cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x45e1…f42dbacked Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77ad…be51backed Yes | 23c | 91.3$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -2.7wins | -0.30per pick | 41cpaid | -85.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5740…c1a6backed Yes | 17c | 77.15$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Yes | 13c | 77$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 290 | 34.5%100 W · 190 L | +16.0wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe8…0fedbacked No | 59c | 60.28$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.83 | 140 | 44.3%62 W · 78 L | -6.2wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed No | 46c | 37$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.98 | 41 | 51.2%21 W · 20 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a30…fca1backed Yes | 59c | 33.96$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 21 | 71.4%15 W · 6 L | +3.8wins | +0.18per pick | 53cpaid | +32.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd574…425dbacked Yes | 44c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 60 | 48.3%29 W · 31 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeaaa…f610backed Yes | 41c | 27.29$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked No | 56c | 25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 291 | 42.3%123 W · 168 L | -8.1wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Champions League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Benfica vs. Qarabag end in a draw?this page
- Will Benfica win on 2025-09-16?No won
- Will Qarabag win on 2025-09-16?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.