Champions League · resolved market
Will Benfica win on 2025-09-16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa80ae546771dafdab589d9808486f8e76fe001e22ea7476d3bf32a9e484480d5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Champions Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,243,374
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,277,598
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,243,374 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 78 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Champions League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Champions League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2635…5408backed No | 19c | 1,115,662$207,133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$908,529.6 | 35 | 22.9%8 W · 27 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Yes | 79c | 31,336$24,787 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24,787.37 | 149 | 52.3%78 W · 71 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed No | 27c | 8,549$2,298 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,250.76 | 383 | 43.1%165 W · 218 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb1d9…4ce3backed No | 20c | 5,000$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,000 | 49 | 36.7%18 W · 31 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94fb…d6cbbacked No | 18c | 3,138$564 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,574.94 | 190 | 28.9%55 W · 135 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90ba…63f3backed No | 19c | 3,050$580 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,470.5 | 402 | 22.9%92 W · 310 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | +9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf519…906bbacked Yes | 80c | 2,504$2,003 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,003.07 | 149 | 53%79 W · 70 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed61…9aa3backed No | 13c | 2,126$281 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,844.52 | 249 | 63.1%157 W · 92 L | +45.5wins | +0.18per pick | 45cpaid | +63.6%equal weight | 68+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x2d27…76d8backed Yes | 80c | 2,000$1,600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,600 | 129 | 21.7%28 W · 101 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64b5…7543backed No | 19c | 2,000$380 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,619.99 | 142 | 35.2%50 W · 92 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x20da…e704backed No | 13c | 1,538$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,338.46 | 46 | 21.7%10 W · 36 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 19cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7308…c177backed Yes | 79c | 1,274$1,010 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,010 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x649f…993ebacked No | 19c | 1,171$222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$948.29 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | +2.6wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb701…7cf6backed No | 13c | 1,154$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,003.85 | 84 | 33.3%28 W · 56 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +35%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x016e…c700backed Yes | 63c | 1,057$666 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$666 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1208…1feabacked Yes | 80c | 1,000$800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$800 | 51 | 33.3%17 W · 34 L | -3.4wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2934…0b51backed No | 19c | 999.97$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$809.97 | 123 | 30.1%37 W · 86 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +32.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfcca…c460backed No | 49c | 975$478 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$497.25 | 93 | 41.9%39 W · 54 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 19c | 910.26$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$733.53 | 1,511 | 40.2%608 W · 903 L | -6.7wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -16%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f65…d7aebacked No | 13c | 850$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$739.5 | 24 | 66.7%16 W · 8 L | +5.7wins | +0.24per pick | 43cpaid | +65.8%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xdfc8…d9f7backed Yes | 63c | 606.51$382 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$382 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa52c…ef80backed Yes | 60c | 600$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$360 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x48e3…c148backed No | 18c | 599.92$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$491.94 | 32 | 25%8 W · 24 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…4bccbacked No | 9c | 555.56$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$505.56 | 106 | 31.1%33 W · 73 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9d1…2b9ebacked Yes | 48c | 543.84$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260.18 | 47 | 40.4%19 W · 28 L | -3.9wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x33c2…9818backed No | 13c | 532$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$462.84 | 108 | 45.4%49 W · 59 L | +3.9wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed No | 19c | 526.32$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$426.32 | 244 | 55.7%136 W · 108 L | -7.9wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked No | 20c | 500$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$400 | 186 | 50.5%94 W · 92 L | -14.4wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -12%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x562f…e46fbacked Yes | 80c | 500$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6231…3f29backed No | 39c | 499.99$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$305 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0aa3…64e9backed No | 19c | 491.9$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$398.44 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f93…e313backed No | 20c | 489$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$391.2 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | +2.8wins | +0.08per pick | 38cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb6c5…7becbacked Yes | 65c | 485$313 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$312.95 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x255e…4979backed Yes | 63c | 317.46$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.27per pick | 47cpaid | -57.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf699…07e1backed No | 78c | 311$243 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.48 | 204 | 62.3%127 W · 77 L | +19.1wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2be4…01adbacked No | 55c | 300$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -47%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe671…a682backed Yes | 22c | 300$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 94 | 44.7%42 W · 52 L | +5.5wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe31a…adffbacked No | 18c | 300$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$246 | 48 | 39.6%19 W · 29 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +62.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89d1…6448backed Yes | 56c | 252.1$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 45 | 35.6%16 W · 29 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x03f7…c0ccbacked Yes | 80c | 250$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 112 | 45.5%51 W · 61 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe880…de2dbacked Yes | 35c | 250$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.5 | 77 | 42.9%33 W · 44 L | -6.7wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7dce…38ecbacked Yes | 26c | 244.14$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf575…e0ebbacked No | 14c | 214.29$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.29 | 42 | 28.6%12 W · 30 L | -2.7wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed No | 19c | 201.82$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.49 | 469 | 56.5%265 W · 204 L | +8.4wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a51…4cc0backed Yes | 55c | 181.82$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 45 | 60%27 W · 18 L | +5.7wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +38.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0c6a…d6aebacked Yes | 61c | 165.23$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.79 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -3.1wins | -0.13per pick | 59cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe5e1…7edabacked No | 20c | 163.15$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.52 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +2.6wins | +0.17per pick | 52cpaid | +47.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4292…9cd8backed Yes | 66c | 151.52$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.18per pick | 52cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked No | 19c | 146.91$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119 | 449 | 55.7%250 W · 199 L | +5.4wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe8…0fedbacked No | 46c | 137.7$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.96 | 140 | 44.3%62 W · 78 L | -6.2wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3ee1…e5f0backed Yes | 80c | 130$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.12per pick | 59cpaid | +57.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7fc7…969bbacked No | 19c | 121.42$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.35 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | +5.0wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +35.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed No | 13c | 100$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87 | 173 | 22%38 W · 135 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf36…94e8backed No | 20c | 100$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb32f…4f6cbacked No | 20c | 100$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | +3.8wins | +0.13per pick | 41cpaid | +51.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd8fe…ba40backed Yes | 80c | 100$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 149 | 47%70 W · 79 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd82a…5fcfbacked No | 19c | 99.99$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.99 | 64 | 51.6%33 W · 31 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea9e…d3fbbacked No | 19c | 99.02$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.21 | 79 | 31.6%25 W · 54 L | +7.6wins | +0.10per pick | 22cpaid | +29%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc4ab…7e31backed Yes | 52c | 96.15$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79b6…612ebacked Yes | 64c | 70.72$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.26 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | -3.1wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f7…2abfbacked No | 19c | 70.15$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.82 | 139 | 27.3%38 W · 101 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5740…c1a6backed Yes | 36c | 69.44$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd316…bca3backed Yes | 45c | 67$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe8ff…c93bbacked Yes | 39c | 64.1$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -2.0wins | -0.20per pick | 50cpaid | -47.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Yes | 37c | 64.1$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.67 | 397 | 46.9%186 W · 211 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5422…6c3fbacked Yes | 56c | 60$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.6 | 77 | 44.2%34 W · 43 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed No | 20c | 50$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 290 | 34.5%100 W · 190 L | +16.0wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3a4f…c4f2backed No | 37c | 50$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.5 | 32 | 65.6%21 W · 11 L | +5.5wins | +0.17per pick | 48cpaid | +63.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x77ad…be51backed Yes | 42c | 47.62$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -2.7wins | -0.30per pick | 41cpaid | -85.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc71e…f450backed No | 63c | 40.26$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.78 | 46 | 45.7%21 W · 25 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c85…7468backed Yes | 73c | 39.64$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.73per pick | 73cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdda3…d55fbacked Yes | 62c | 37.22$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.08 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf31…2931backed Yes | 60c | 34$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 39 | 51.3%20 W · 19 L | -5.4wins | -0.14per pick | 65cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5200…9677backed Yes | 62c | 30$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf430…675abacked Yes | 74c | 30$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.3 | 39 | 64.1%25 W · 14 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 67cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b9a…31d3backed No | 53c | 20.75$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.75 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +94.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30c3…5d8ebacked Yes | 80c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x852a…07d1backed Yes | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +1.7wins | +0.10per pick | 43cpaid | +43%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Champions League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Benfica win on 2025-09-16?this page
- Will Benfica vs. Qarabag end in a draw?No won
- Will Qarabag win on 2025-09-16?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.