Tennis · resolved market
US Open: Taylor Townsend vs Mirra Andreeva
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4c56b3bf2ca87ce391816d353d33548fa25e8456b63c9a89e127ee7c9f428dfa
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Townsendof Townsend, Andreeva
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $40,020
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $38,940
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $40,020 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x60a9…b5a8backed Townsend | 18c | 7,573$1,400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,173.1 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 16cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc2f8…56b6backed Townsend | 23c | 3,990$920 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,070.07 | 89 | 49.4%44 W · 45 L | +4.6wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6239…c24fbacked Townsend | 17c | 2,584$439 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,144.82 | 149 | 49%73 W · 76 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x898b…8d76backed Townsend | 32c | 2,116$675 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,441.28 | 70 | 28.6%20 W · 50 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x81f5…70afbacked Townsend | 16c | 1,750$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,470 | 364 | 40.9%149 W · 215 L | -13.2wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3868…5683backed Townsend | 22c | 1,000$219 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$781 | 73 | 30.1%22 W · 51 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x54e7…e35fbacked Andreeva | 59c | 1,000$593 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$593.5 | 129 | 54.3%70 W · 59 L | -6.2wins | -0.05per pick | 59cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e94…6243backed Andreeva | 27c | 991.37$272 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$272.22 | 178 | 33.1%59 W · 119 L | -7.4wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Townsend | 17c | 882$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$732.06 | 627 | 42.4%266 W · 361 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4dbe…af34backed Andreeva | 80c | 735.15$588 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$588.12 | 161 | 40.4%65 W · 96 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb852…bfaebacked Townsend | 17c | 600$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$495.32 | 296 | 34.1%101 W · 195 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ef5…39edbacked Townsend | 17c | 600$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$498 | 257 | 22.2%57 W · 200 L | -12.3wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc9d1…2b9ebacked Andreeva | 43c | 576.67$248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$247.97 | 164 | 45.7%75 W · 89 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Townsend | 19c | 529.15$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$429.15 | 639 | 42.4%271 W · 368 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Townsend | 20c | 500$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$400 | 480 | 43.3%208 W · 272 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f19…aec2backed Andreeva | 79c | 500$395 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$395 | 58 | 69%40 W · 18 L | +5.8wins | +0.10per pick | 59cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Townsend | 21c | 482.43$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$382.43 | 731 | 47.9%350 W · 381 L | -16.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x48e3…c148backed Townsend | 16c | 462.18$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$388.23 | 157 | 24.8%39 W · 118 L | +5.8wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5c…d8e6backed Townsend | 59c | 385.44$227 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.19 | 1,090 | 35.9%391 W · 699 L | +16.2wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d0f…4faabacked Townsend | 16c | 371$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$311.64 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +2.1wins | +0.35per pick | 31cpaid | +112.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x83c8…5d9ebacked Andreeva | 60c | 334.04$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb5e2…e599backed Andreeva | 30c | 300$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.88 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ab6…cfecbacked Townsend | 49c | 287.72$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.72 | 129 | 27.1%35 W · 94 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3d0…5c32backed Townsend | 18c | 250$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205 | 226 | 29.2%66 W · 160 L | +7.1wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x430b…6e64backed Townsend | 50c | 246.54$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.1 | 204 | 47.5%97 W · 107 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Andreeva | 44c | 211.99$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.49 | 2,766 | 47.7%1,318 W · 1,448 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb478…ac0abacked Townsend | 23c | 152.17$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.17 | 360 | 47.2%170 W · 190 L | +9.6wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75ec…6b20backed Townsend | 76c | 131.58$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.58 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9354…6502backed Andreeva | 54c | 116.25$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.19 | 755 | 47.8%361 W · 394 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b2b…5752backed Townsend | 18c | 111.11$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.11 | 214 | 54.7%117 W · 97 L | +13.1wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Townsend | 18c | 111$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.02 | 1,489 | 32.6%486 W · 1,003 L | +22.2wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Andreeva | 46c | 110$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.7 | 1,852 | 44.5%825 W · 1,027 L | -20.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf744…7392backed Andreeva | 62c | 105.73$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.56 | 122 | 53.3%65 W · 57 L | -6.9wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd4b2…273bbacked Andreeva | 54c | 105$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.18 | 66 | 59.1%39 W · 27 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x822f…ea37backed Townsend | 23c | 100$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +122.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe216…7448backed Townsend | 19c | 78.95$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.95 | 512 | 43%220 W · 292 L | +14.5wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd99…f375backed Andreeva | 60c | 76.58$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.71 | 85 | 55.3%47 W · 38 L | +4.3wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0304…ac6cbacked Townsend | 38c | 62.24$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.59 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.62per pick | 38cpaid | +163.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fa9…2491backed Townsend | 34c | 57.2$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.58 | 321 | 41.1%132 W · 189 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb37…a7cbbacked Andreeva | 65c | 46.15$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97e1…017bbacked Andreeva | 60c | 35.06$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.91 | 132 | 45.5%60 W · 72 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.