Mls · resolved market
Will Austin FC vs. Los Angeles FC end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4cb63adec61e96184a75186c0c59668dfef15f848bc8eee37891d6d99c146dc3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,924
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,924 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4133…5e70backed No | 66c | 13,283$8,738 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,738.42 | 477 | 48.2%230 W · 247 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 33c | 6,950$2,263 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,686.27 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Yes | 48c | 3,570$1,716 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,854.04 | 777 | 51.7%402 W · 375 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Yes | 24c | 1,445$347 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,097.78 | 971 | 46.1%448 W · 523 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed No | 52c | 1,073$558 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$558.26 | 263 | 46.8%123 W · 140 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Yes | 74c | 655.29$486 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.74 | 215 | 45.1%97 W · 118 L | -20.4wins | -0.09per pick | 55cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8a2f…c5d0backed No | 76c | 526.32$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 76cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x88b1…3678backed Yes | 28c | 521$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$374.58 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.24per pick | 26cpaid | +89.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Yes | 24c | 491$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$371.31 | 371 | 38.8%144 W · 227 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Yes | 25c | 477.8$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$358.35 | 1,270 | 48%610 W · 660 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed No | 67c | 416$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$279.56 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | +1.9wins | +0.08per pick | 36cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed Yes | 24c | 318.99$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$241.12 | 702 | 49.7%349 W · 353 L | -7.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6be…b977backed Yes | 22c | 219.5$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.21 | 61 | 42.6%26 W · 35 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed No | 10c | 211$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.1 | 270 | 58.9%159 W · 111 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x27f3…8382backed Yes | 25c | 200$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +1.6wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb6a6…7971backed Yes | 63c | 158.73$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.73 | 38 | 31.6%12 W · 26 L | -6.4wins | -0.17per pick | 48cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked No | 50c | 151.63$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.43 | 1,009 | 46.2%466 W · 543 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked Yes | 25c | 125$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.75 | 728 | 50.7%369 W · 359 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x315d…b420backed Yes | 78c | 120.51$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.51 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Yes | 26c | 113.36$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.19 | 1,880 | 36.6%688 W · 1,192 L | -7.3wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Yes | 67c | 113.1$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.85 | 193 | 47.2%91 W · 102 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfccd…02d6backed No | 72c | 100$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 30 | 63.3%19 W · 11 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x865f…e88ebacked Yes | 26c | 92$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.08 | 150 | 51.3%77 W · 73 L | +6.1wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5eeb…01b2backed Yes | 27c | 85$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.35 | 205 | 35.1%72 W · 133 L | +7.7wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41ad…8dddbacked No | 26c | 84.35$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.75 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +1.7wins | +0.11per pick | 29cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed No | 74c | 83.85$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.05 | 372 | 49.2%183 W · 189 L | -12.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8790…010bbacked Yes | 46c | 83.63$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.16 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x67d2…a008backed Yes | 36c | 83.33$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.33 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Yes | 25c | 80$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 1,301 | 51.2%666 W · 635 L | -19.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e72…54f0backed Yes | 34c | 73.53$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.53 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c65…6b11backed Yes | 74c | 67.57$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.57 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Yes | 33c | 60.11$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.07 | 139 | 50.4%70 W · 69 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed No | 41c | 58.09$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.62 | 249 | 20.9%52 W · 197 L | -19.4wins | -0.08per pick | 29cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1465…9f10backed No | 70c | 56.99$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.9 | 25 | 68%17 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed No | 74c | 53$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.22 | 685 | 50.5%346 W · 339 L | +10.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 67c | 52.86$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.42 | 483 | 44.9%217 W · 266 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50e0…776ebacked Yes | 26c | 46.38$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.32 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Yes | 26c | 41.98$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.07 | 429 | 47.1%202 W · 227 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd074…5a54backed No | 50c | 41.4$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.7 | 19 | 78.9%15 W · 4 L | +2.1wins | +0.11per pick | 68cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1b44…d8debacked Yes | 50c | 41.4$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.7 | 82 | 41.5%34 W · 48 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc33d…0d40backed No | 57c | 34.24$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.61 | 102 | 49%50 W · 52 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed No | 59c | 31.14$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.29 | 288 | 51.4%148 W · 140 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e88…261cbacked Yes | 62c | 30.65$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.65 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84cb…4b77backed No | 63c | 30$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.99 | 26 | 61.5%16 W · 10 L | +3.6wins | +0.14per pick | 48cpaid | +38.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed No | 69c | 30$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.7 | 967 | 56.8%549 W · 418 L | +73.1wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xced7…b7b5backed No | 70c | 30$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.1 | 85 | 68.2%58 W · 27 L | +10.0wins | +0.12per pick | 56cpaid | +25%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked No | 69c | 27.48$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.96 | 53 | 49.1%26 W · 27 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 73c | 27.2$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.13per pick | 60cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd187…6e50backed No | 76c | 16$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.16 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Austin FC vs. Los Angeles FC end in a draw?this page
- Will Austin FC win on 2026-03-21?No won
- Will Los Angeles FC win on 2026-03-21?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.