Tennis · resolved market
ITF Porto: Francisco Rocha vs Mert Alkaya
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4cc08711116b90cd3bd51a06a2bf6da0dcae97141112c80997e669ac9ed04904
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Mert Alkayaof Francisco Rocha, Mert Alkaya
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,231
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,409
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,231 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 74 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1f5d…80a3backed Francisco Rocha | 55c | 1,818$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 249 | 61.4%153 W · 96 L | -10.3wins | -0.04per pick | 66cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7462…3ac3backed Mert Alkaya | 32c | 1,081$342 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$739.76 | 1,681 | 50%841 W · 840 L | +30.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +13%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Mert Alkaya | 33c | 950$313 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$636.55 | 2,761 | 53.9%1,487 W · 1,274 L | +73.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Francisco Rocha | 48c | 715.76$345 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$344.59 | 6,720 | 36.9%2,479 W · 4,241 L | -95.8wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6770…5bdfbacked Mert Alkaya | 29c | 521.21$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$370.94 | 969 | 45.9%445 W · 524 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4be6…b010backed Francisco Rocha | 50c | 480.2$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 1,428 | 48.2%689 W · 739 L | +4.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7edb…7993backed Francisco Rocha | 47c | 450.91$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.17 | 1,459 | 50.1%731 W · 728 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef3a…1eb3backed Mert Alkaya | 34c | 442.21$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$292.21 | 179 | 41.3%74 W · 105 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Francisco Rocha | 33c | 408.7$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.96 | 5,416 | 48.6%2,633 W · 2,783 L | +14.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5803…3f3fbacked Francisco Rocha | 46c | 391.3$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 853 | 48.9%417 W · 436 L | +38.1wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd050…c915backed Mert Alkaya | 56c | 363.55$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.65 | 208 | 46.2%96 W · 112 L | +10.4wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb421…8856backed Mert Alkaya | 34c | 362.51$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$239.61 | 1,776 | 48.6%863 W · 913 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9086…4d46backed Mert Alkaya | 58c | 344.32$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.32 | 1,841 | 48.5%892 W · 949 L | -32.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x222b…1a8dbacked Francisco Rocha | 54c | 336.6$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.41 | 992 | 44.7%443 W · 549 L | -29.0wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3054…055bbacked Mert Alkaya | 34c | 294.12$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.12 | 137 | 52.6%72 W · 65 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Francisco Rocha | 50c | 256.94$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.59 | 8,505 | 42.6%3,619 W · 4,886 L | -166.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x23d4…b10ebacked Francisco Rocha | 27c | 247.48$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -2.8wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc07d…b1dfbacked Francisco Rocha | 65c | 243.36$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.06 | 2,383 | 55.6%1,326 W · 1,057 L | +49.3wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x26d6…caccbacked Francisco Rocha | 56c | 225.7$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.54 | 1,487 | 47.5%706 W · 781 L | -19.1wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -21%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf43f…3b20backed Francisco Rocha | 48c | 208.96$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 113 | 38.9%44 W · 69 L | -6.5wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Francisco Rocha | 41c | 201.2$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.84 | 6,449 | 46.3%2,987 W · 3,462 L | -42.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x999a…9a25backed Francisco Rocha | 51c | 183.96$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.39 | 604 | 52.5%317 W · 287 L | +7.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -12%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5404…5e58backed Mert Alkaya | 23c | 180$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.8 | 684 | 30%205 W · 479 L | +7.2wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba4…6de0backed Mert Alkaya | 68c | 177.61$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.51 | 280 | 48.9%137 W · 143 L | -14.9wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x14e7…a32cbacked Francisco Rocha | 34c | 165.63$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.55 | 1,349 | 49.8%672 W · 677 L | -6.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf6be…f6a3backed Francisco Rocha | 33c | 151.51$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 72 | 31.9%23 W · 49 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -14%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb8e…08c1backed Mert Alkaya | 34c | 126$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.27 | 2,118 | 55.9%1,185 W · 933 L | +40.1wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd2c8…d506backed Mert Alkaya | 34c | 122.01$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.01 | 159 | 37.7%60 W · 99 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9455…7defbacked Mert Alkaya | 34c | 118.49$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.2 | 960 | 49.5%475 W · 485 L | +16.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb91c…ed66backed Francisco Rocha | 39c | 111.09$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.08 | 578 | 45.7%264 W · 314 L | +10.5wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84bc…4aadbacked Mert Alkaya | 43c | 110.05$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.98 | 242 | 45%109 W · 133 L | -6.9wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb2f9…eb15backed Francisco Rocha | 44c | 100$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 157 | 51.6%81 W · 76 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad2b…2a8ebacked Francisco Rocha | 72c | 100$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 78 | 47.4%37 W · 41 L | +5.1wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +12%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3a4f…c4f2backed Francisco Rocha | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 331 | 34.7%115 W · 216 L | -17.2wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4432…1a32backed Francisco Rocha | 41c | 100$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 150 | 79.3%119 W · 31 L | +17.1wins | +0.11per pick | 68cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8546…35b8backed Francisco Rocha | 45c | 88.88$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 208 | 60.6%126 W · 82 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c97…5c66backed Mert Alkaya | 34c | 88.24$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.24 | 483 | 55.1%266 W · 217 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9aaf…8298backed Francisco Rocha | 72c | 85$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.6 | 487 | 38.4%187 W · 300 L | +14.1wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa657…31a1backed Francisco Rocha | 23c | 80$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.05 | 82 | 65.9%54 W · 28 L | +12.4wins | +0.15per pick | 51cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x9d5a…d0f0backed Mert Alkaya | 55c | 78.88$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.5 | 461 | 55.3%255 W · 206 L | +19.9wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb155…ca84backed Mert Alkaya | 62c | 70$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.31 | 920 | 46.6%429 W · 491 L | -14.2wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe99…506bbacked Mert Alkaya | 74c | 67.57$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.57 | 678 | 52.1%353 W · 325 L | -2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6318…46b1backed Francisco Rocha | 26c | 67.57$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.57 | 5,261 | 28.8%1,514 W · 3,747 L | -19.4wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b49…9bdcbacked Francisco Rocha | 34c | 66.67$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.57 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca85…7453backed Francisco Rocha | 35c | 65.54$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.94 | 154 | 40.9%63 W · 91 L | -4.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8649…ba57backed Francisco Rocha | 39c | 64.97$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.34 | 796 | 46%366 W · 430 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a80…11c5backed Mert Alkaya | 42c | 54$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.09 | 739 | 51.7%382 W · 357 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82b0…7c38backed Mert Alkaya | 23c | 49$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.75 | 359 | 55.7%200 W · 159 L | +20.3wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5d0d…9d1abacked Francisco Rocha | 35c | 47.22$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.75 | 63 | 55.6%35 W · 28 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x316f…795abacked Mert Alkaya | 33c | 46$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.82 | 300 | 40%120 W · 180 L | +12.6wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1fe8…72bcbacked Francisco Rocha | 53c | 45$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 536 | 57.8%310 W · 226 L | +35.2wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f3…d6dcbacked Francisco Rocha | 46c | 45$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.74 | 870 | 60.2%524 W · 346 L | +28.4wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e0…7eecbacked Mert Alkaya | 45c | 43.49$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.71 | 1,175 | 52.9%622 W · 553 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd8bb…7cefbacked Mert Alkaya | 41c | 41.29$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.52 | 367 | 43.6%160 W · 207 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x775d…6bebbacked Francisco Rocha | 61c | 41$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.91 | 1,767 | 52.1%920 W · 847 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Mert Alkaya | 57c | 36.95$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.72 | 7,816 | 50.6%3,958 W · 3,858 L | +95.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xddb6…b9b3backed Mert Alkaya | 34c | 36$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.92 | 1,725 | 52.2%901 W · 824 L | -8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3bce…db46backed Mert Alkaya | 32c | 35.63$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.4 | 158 | 54.4%86 W · 72 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc593…ea8cbacked Mert Alkaya | 78c | 35$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.7 | 295 | 51.5%152 W · 143 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c18…2f76backed Francisco Rocha | 31c | 32$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.02 | 1,822 | 41%747 W · 1,075 L | -30.2wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x349e…867bbacked Mert Alkaya | 77c | 31.97$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.36 | 753 | 50.5%380 W · 373 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x189e…5aaebacked Mert Alkaya | 78c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.68 | 273 | 53.1%145 W · 128 L | +12.8wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Mert Alkaya | 77c | 29.04$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.79 | 6,439 | 54.4%3,502 W · 2,937 L | +285.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Francisco Rocha | 56c | 28$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.62 | 4,602 | 48.3%2,223 W · 2,379 L | +34.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x092a…8577backed Mert Alkaya | 51c | 27.28$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.37 | 99 | 43.4%43 W · 56 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd5a3…5b70backed Mert Alkaya | 77c | 27.09$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.25 | 64 | 32.8%21 W · 43 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf66e…14b7backed Mert Alkaya | 78c | 26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.65 | 727 | 55.6%404 W · 323 L | +27.9wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Francisco Rocha | 61c | 25.92$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.83 | 156 | 5.8%9 W · 147 L | -32.4wins | -0.21per pick | 27cpaid | -64.6%equal weight | 30-0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x4c9a…0cd4backed Francisco Rocha | 50c | 25.26$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.71 | 55 | 43.6%24 W · 31 L | -5.0wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7179…7d79backed Mert Alkaya | 52c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 2,601 | 46.5%1,209 W · 1,392 L | +18.8wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14f3…0796backed Mert Alkaya | 77c | 19.64$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.56 | 1,234 | 46.3%571 W · 663 L | +8.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6770…c3bdbacked Francisco Rocha | 64c | 19$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.16 | 923 | 52.5%485 W · 438 L | +10.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5968…3fc4backed Mert Alkaya | 70c | 15.06$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.46 | 423 | 59.1%250 W · 173 L | +24.7wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe83a…8355backed Mert Alkaya | 74c | 13.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.6 | 652 | 59.4%387 W · 265 L | +31.5wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.