Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 98-99°F on August 22?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4cc0d7a86ff60468c03322c67524c30033ecc9dd40a5499039d0aa104c63239a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,942
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,478
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,942 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 67 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked No | 72c | 1,578$1,132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$445.99 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd22…2013backed Yes | 31c | 1,037$324 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$324.11 | 314 | 54.1%170 W · 144 L | +31.3wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfd36…a832backed Yes | 47c | 633.65$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.98 | 650 | 43.4%282 W · 368 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 25c | 599.64$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.04 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e9c…f3a8backed Yes | 49c | 591.64$291 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290.95 | 602 | 36.5%220 W · 382 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 24c | 539.78$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.15 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0da…3ff6backed No | 50c | 480$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240.48 | 176 | 58%102 W · 74 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 58c | 311.8$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.62 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 31c | 288.5$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.4 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 56c | 279.87$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.58 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 9c | 278.33$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.05 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2165…f598backed Yes | 8c | 200$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 141 | 13.5%19 W · 122 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeec7…2fa1backed No | 49c | 198.79$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.04 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +2.0wins | +0.29per pick | 57cpaid | +53.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fe…cafebacked Yes | 52c | 198$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.96 | 204 | 52%106 W · 98 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58b9…e12fbacked Yes | 44c | 188.58$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.48 | 132 | 54.5%72 W · 60 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x08ce…f301backed No | 51c | 182.78$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.18 | 353 | 23.2%82 W · 271 L | -16.4wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -54.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 74c | 141.99$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.36 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 56c | 139.2$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.92 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 53c | 115.64$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.14 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 72c | 115.04$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.08 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73e7…8b59backed Yes | 27c | 108.98$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.45 | 434 | 41.5%180 W · 254 L | +29.3wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf73b…10bfbacked No | 48c | 101$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.06 | 283 | 44.5%126 W · 157 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61f9…8055backed Yes | 38c | 100$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 905 | 55.6%503 W · 402 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7eb5…9400backed No | 48c | 100$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 527 | 58.8%310 W · 217 L | +13.2wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61dd…cbd8backed No | 51c | 95.92$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.05 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed No | 65c | 91.52$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.45 | 1,010 | 58.1%587 W · 423 L | -34.0wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 51c | 75.98$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.46 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf8c…f1f5backed Yes | 41c | 74.4$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.77 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | -1.7wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1822…022fbacked Yes | 28c | 71.38$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.18 | 155 | 20.6%32 W · 123 L | -7.3wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9c95…52dbbacked No | 47c | 70$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.1 | 50 | 24%12 W · 38 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 36c | 62.58$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 1,102 | 40.7%448 W · 654 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6120…f1febacked Yes | 48c | 62.5$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 827 | 42.8%354 W · 473 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x56b3…3fa2backed No | 71c | 59.35$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.02 | 895 | 44.7%400 W · 495 L | +30.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x831a…ad82backed No | 49c | 56$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.56 | 196 | 48.5%95 W · 101 L | +9.9wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…b586backed Yes | 28c | 55$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 907 | 34.5%313 W · 594 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1db5…ef2fbacked No | 74c | 48.29$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.47 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked Yes | 53c | 47.33$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.93 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 60c | 47.22$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.05 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc4f9…8d24backed Yes | 39c | 43$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.77 | 477 | 38.8%185 W · 292 L | +18.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x65f7…86ddbacked No | 51c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.6 | 257 | 58%149 W · 108 L | +7.5wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe828…ae41backed Yes | 51c | 37.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.38 | 90 | 27.8%25 W · 65 L | -10.0wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x53fb…e92abacked No | 46c | 35.67$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.11 | 48 | 72.9%35 W · 13 L | +3.2wins | +0.07per pick | 66cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 57c | 34.42$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.93 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b7…f43cbacked No | 59c | 33.94$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.92 | 308 | 34.4%106 W · 202 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8373…f0bcbacked No | 64c | 32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.52 | 178 | 59%105 W · 73 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5bd…eaa7backed No | 53c | 31.13$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.63 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 58c | 30.99$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.99 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 57c | 30.62$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.18 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe188…c1d0backed No | 50c | 30.49$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.14 | 78 | 56.4%44 W · 34 L | +7.9wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +22%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf361…08f6backed No | 48c | 29.98$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.59 | 47 | 63.8%30 W · 17 L | +4.4wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3e20…dddcbacked Yes | 48c | 29.19$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.01 | 285 | 46.3%132 W · 153 L | -17.3wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa397…7817backed Yes | 53c | 28.85$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.39 | 140 | 53.6%75 W · 65 L | +5.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 50c | 26.98$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.43 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x95d3…6effbacked Yes | 51c | 25.33$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.92 | 317 | 48.6%154 W · 163 L | +16.0wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb699…4e20backed Yes | 53c | 25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.25 | 213 | 52.1%111 W · 102 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecd9…5565backed Yes | 51c | 24.02$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.25 | 133 | 50.4%67 W · 66 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked No | 52c | 24$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.52 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x234c…90dbbacked Yes | 52c | 23.08$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 581 | 38.9%226 W · 355 L | +10.9wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 62c | 21.79$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.37 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 58c | 21$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.73 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe8f0…1731backed No | 65c | 20.76$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.28 | 22 | 68.2%15 W · 7 L | +1.5wins | +0.07per pick | 61cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7210…f1f9backed Yes | 54c | 20.37$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46f8…68ccbacked No | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 63cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfca6…6595backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 18 | 77.8%14 W · 4 L | +2.5wins | +0.14per pick | 64cpaid | +19%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6f7c…34e7backed No | 72c | 17$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.76 | 185 | 67.6%125 W · 60 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46f7…ded2backed No | 73c | 16.89$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.49 | 38 | 52.6%20 W · 18 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda61…2b5fbacked No | 80c | 15.45$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.09 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.7wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +55.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 98-99°F on August 22?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 100-101°F on August 22?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 102-103°F on August 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 96-97°F on August 22?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.