Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 100-101°F on August 22?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf2106647dc1a4a914158f48819fdc322037d134932bd044f91b3f839e5065a05
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,479
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,605
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,479 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 66 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd251…4d37backed No | 63c | 901.13$565 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$564.99 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0da…3ff6backed No | 62c | 708.36$440 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$439.51 | 176 | 58%102 W · 74 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd22…2013backed No | 45c | 607.65$275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$275 | 314 | 54.1%170 W · 144 L | +31.3wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 34c | 521.56$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$342.06 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x56b3…3fa2backed Yes | 51c | 509$259 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250.22 | 895 | 44.7%400 W · 495 L | +30.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 36c | 297.5$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.35 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 14c | 254.34$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.45 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 49c | 219.18$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.84 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked Yes | 44c | 215$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.13 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 37c | 202.38$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.73 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 70c | 190.02$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.36 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 55c | 169.27$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.42 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf73b…10bfbacked Yes | 42c | 163.05$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.82 | 283 | 44.5%126 W · 157 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked No | 55c | 160.4$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.82 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 60c | 152.13$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.62 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa5cf…39d5backed Yes | 34c | 145$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.7 | 231 | 29.4%68 W · 163 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed Yes | 37c | 134$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.42 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x95d3…6effbacked No | 67c | 133.66$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.43 | 317 | 48.6%154 W · 163 L | +16.0wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b7…f43cbacked Yes | 34c | 120.78$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.25 | 308 | 34.4%106 W · 202 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x58b9…e12fbacked Yes | 48c | 104.92$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.4 | 132 | 54.5%72 W · 60 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x08ce…f301backed Yes | 37c | 104.06$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.85 | 353 | 23.2%82 W · 271 L | -16.4wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -54.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 40c | 102.81$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.57 | 1,102 | 40.7%448 W · 654 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 67c | 100.7$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.5 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xebdb…5ac4backed No | 51c | 100$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 850 | 49.8%423 W · 427 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4708…9580backed Yes | 32c | 83$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.64 | 104 | 32.7%34 W · 70 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -35%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 50c | 80$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.4 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 55c | 79.97$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.98 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc1dc…48fabacked No | 56c | 77.21$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.24 | 122 | 38.5%47 W · 75 L | -10.6wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe58b…d6f5backed Yes | 35c | 75.48$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.77 | 36 | 30.6%11 W · 25 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6e2…06f4backed Yes | 37c | 75$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.25 | 184 | 49.5%91 W · 93 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4fb…32c8backed Yes | 47c | 74.96$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.09 | 91 | 46.2%42 W · 49 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed Yes | 37c | 74.61$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 30c | 70$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 982 | 36.7%360 W · 622 L | +37.9wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd8e…fb01backed No | 66c | 60.24$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 38 | 71.1%27 W · 11 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 74cpaid | -3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e61…f87bbacked No | 68c | 59.1$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 23 | 69.6%16 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 75cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46f7…ded2backed Yes | 44c | 56.71$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.91 | 38 | 52.6%20 W · 18 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 38c | 52.81$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.96 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked Yes | 59c | 52.43$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.73 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 31c | 50.49$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.65 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe99…9ca7backed Yes | 39c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.35 | 669 | 26.2%175 W · 494 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…c19ebacked Yes | 60c | 49.9$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.9 | 612 | 49.5%303 W · 309 L | +30.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7eb5…9400backed No | 61c | 49$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.89 | 527 | 58.8%310 W · 217 L | +13.2wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 54c | 47.23$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.45 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed Yes | 32c | 46.87$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89e1…c6f3backed No | 65c | 46.15$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.16per pick | 68cpaid | +23%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe188…c1d0backed Yes | 35c | 45.14$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.34 | 78 | 56.4%44 W · 34 L | +7.9wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +22%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6046…3f9dbacked Yes | 36c | 41.66$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.72 | 155 | 34.8%54 W · 101 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed Yes | 45c | 41$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.55 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65f7…86ddbacked No | 67c | 40$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.8 | 257 | 58%149 W · 108 L | +7.5wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 48c | 35.69$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.73 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x094a…a9d2backed No | 36c | 35.15$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.54 | 292 | 19.5%57 W · 235 L | +12.3wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8373…f0bcbacked No | 55c | 32$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 178 | 59%105 W · 73 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef61…2ee6backed No | 65c | 30.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 335 | 50.4%169 W · 166 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed Yes | 37c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.9 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 63c | 29.56$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.62 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdae8…4736backed Yes | 39c | 29.18$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.67 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46d0…b129backed No | 55c | 27.8$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.29 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 62c | 26.98$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.79 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x142a…a44abacked No | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 179 | 45.3%81 W · 98 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcef6…2adebacked No | 69c | 24$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.52 | 259 | 47.1%122 W · 137 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa703…6a73backed Yes | 56c | 23.7$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.53 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 38cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e28…4983backed No | 64c | 23.44$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 336 | 54.2%182 W · 154 L | -9.6wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed Yes | 48c | 22.02$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.55 | 1,010 | 58.1%587 W · 423 L | -34.0wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 62c | 21.57$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.32 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xecd9…5565backed No | 55c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 133 | 50.4%67 W · 66 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda61…2b5fbacked Yes | 59c | 18.25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.48 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.7wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +55.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 100-101°F on August 22?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 102-103°F on August 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 96-97°F on August 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 98-99°F on August 22?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.