MLB · resolved market
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 6.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4cd5057f495ec8e68933da43658c92dde8fd686ae82a832780044bca2baf2ab0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,659
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,644
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,659 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 29c | 7,179$2,093 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,092.72 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x584f…54b9backed Under | 36c | 4,166$1,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,666.28 | 187 | 41.2%77 W · 110 L | -11.2wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 72c | 2,174$1,571 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$603.01 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 72c | 1,469$1,058 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$411.29 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Over | 64c | 1,091$698 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$698.47 | 1,572 | 48.3%759 W · 813 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x815f…1eefbacked Under | 57c | 600.23$339 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$261.09 | 912 | 52.4%478 W · 434 L | +12.5wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed Under | 58c | 517.24$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$217.24 | 2,243 | 57.6%1,293 W · 950 L | +37.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 44c | 500$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 66c | 486.08$322 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.71 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 35c | 324.64$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.45 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7268…78abbacked Over | 18c | 275.33$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.56 | 200 | 40%80 W · 120 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Over | 53c | 267.9$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.91 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b95…5733backed Over | 42c | 257.12$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.8 | 210 | 55.2%116 W · 94 L | +8.4wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Under | 60c | 248.38$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.35 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Over | 64c | 240$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.4 | 2,290 | 51%1,167 W · 1,123 L | +23.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Over | 36c | 218$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.6 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 41c | 190.06$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.53 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Under | 36c | 165.02$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.04 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9034…f7dfbacked Under | 37c | 130.01$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.91 | 211 | 49.3%104 W · 107 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3cad…92f0backed Under | 36c | 111.11$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.11 | 475 | 49.7%236 W · 239 L | +17.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb77…1c78backed Under | 36c | 100$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64 | 276 | 46.7%129 W · 147 L | +10.8wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x133a…504abacked Under | 36c | 94.44$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.44 | 546 | 51.3%280 W · 266 L | +29.8wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3894…decfbacked Over | 28c | 76.45$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.41 | 375 | 51.2%192 W · 183 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Over | 51c | 63.9$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.8 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 30c | 44.14$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.06 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24a1…32f2backed Over | 70c | 40.57$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.4 | 207 | 45.9%95 W · 112 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff97…7350backed Over | 64c | 37.5$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc85…aa54backed Over | 28c | 37.36$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.46 | 242 | 43%104 W · 138 L | -12.2wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x58c6…eeb6backed Over | 34c | 33.13$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.43 | 159 | 42.8%68 W · 91 L | -6.6wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Under | 59c | 33.03$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.61 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8f14…ca5abacked Over | 51c | 27.92$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.27 | 1,042 | 49.4%515 W · 527 L | +13.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1631…072dbacked Over | 61c | 27.27$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.54 | 773 | 53.9%417 W · 356 L | +35.9wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3563…a0a2backed Over | 62c | 22.17$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.77 | 2,223 | 55.4%1,231 W · 992 L | +73.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe581…d77abacked Over | 68c | 19.56$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.23 | 76 | 50%38 W · 38 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd3f…829abacked Under | 59c | 19.5$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.98 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 6.5this page
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-3.5)Tampa Bay Rays won
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5)Tampa Bay Rays won
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-2.5)Tampa Bay Rays won
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-3.5)Tampa Bay Rays won
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-4.5)Tampa Bay Rays won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Miami MarlinsTampa Bay Rays won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 10.5Under won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 4.5Over won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 5.5Over won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 7.5Under won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 8.5Under won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 9.5Under won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Tampa Bay Rays vs. Miami MarlinsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.