MLB · resolved market
Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xaaaa9e8e3bff4cefa68d5719d3578db0e868371cc231e3bbf6f150db6fd49543
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Tampa Bay Raysof Tampa Bay Rays, Miami Marlins
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,758
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,748
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,758 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Miami Marlins | 57c | 6,079$3,466 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,466.03 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b88…8f33backed Tampa Bay Rays | 43c | 6,000$2,580 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,420 | 448 | 51.6%231 W · 217 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Miami Marlins | 57c | 389$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$221.73 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7772…0e56backed Tampa Bay Rays | 43c | 377.34$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215.08 | 208 | 48.6%101 W · 107 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Miami Marlins | 57c | 240.49$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.08 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b1…e904backed Miami Marlins | 58c | 200$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116 | 693 | 51.9%360 W · 333 L | +26.3wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Miami Marlins | 38c | 162.95$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.73 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc235…99f8backed Miami Marlins | 57c | 146.15$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.31 | 890 | 53.1%473 W · 417 L | +5.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x256b…97bbbacked Tampa Bay Rays | 43c | 116.28$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.28 | 391 | 49.1%192 W · 199 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec14…7fafbacked Tampa Bay Rays | 44c | 113.64$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.64 | 478 | 49%234 W · 244 L | +14.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc23…a9f2backed Tampa Bay Rays | 42c | 90$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.2 | 468 | 54.5%255 W · 213 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1719…ec68backed Tampa Bay Rays | 42c | 90$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.2 | 721 | 54.2%391 W · 330 L | +20.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +144.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x09ee…90a4backed Miami Marlins | 59c | 90$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.1 | 1,569 | 51.1%801 W · 768 L | +15.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34c1…8454backed Miami Marlins | 62c | 89.42$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.44 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.19per pick | 53cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked Tampa Bay Rays | 38c | 89.42$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.44 | 295 | 47.1%139 W · 156 L | +9.3wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9a0c…14cebacked Tampa Bay Rays | 43c | 87.73$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.01 | 145 | 55.9%81 W · 64 L | +7.1wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa188…62eabacked Tampa Bay Rays | 45c | 67.07$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.07 | 242 | 48.8%118 W · 124 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7fee…3d67backed Tampa Bay Rays | 43c | 56.51$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.21 | 59 | 47.5%28 W · 31 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe67c…33f2backed Tampa Bay Rays | 43c | 53.49$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.49 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Miami Marlins | 55c | 49.07$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.99 | 2,290 | 51%1,167 W · 1,123 L | +23.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Tampa Bay Rays | 41c | 40$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.6 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0905…e5c0backed Miami Marlins | 59c | 40$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.6 | 1,661 | 43.5%722 W · 939 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x83ce…835cbacked Tampa Bay Rays | 71c | 37.86$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 507 | 48.7%247 W · 260 L | -17.2wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc94…a3b6backed Tampa Bay Rays | 42c | 35.71$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.71 | 44 | 45.5%20 W · 24 L | -3.0wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x718d…2b46backed Tampa Bay Rays | 42c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.4 | 465 | 57.2%266 W · 199 L | +11.3wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36aa…a683backed Miami Marlins | 58c | 25.21$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.62 | 443 | 47.9%212 W · 231 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5965…d26dbacked Tampa Bay Rays | 43c | 24$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.68 | 164 | 50.6%83 W · 81 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Miami Marlins | 58c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 1,804 | 53.8%970 W · 834 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf766…9251backed Miami Marlins | 58c | 17.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.15 | 1,464 | 63.5%929 W · 535 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5)this page
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-3.5)Tampa Bay Rays won
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-2.5)Tampa Bay Rays won
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-3.5)Tampa Bay Rays won
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-4.5)Tampa Bay Rays won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Miami MarlinsTampa Bay Rays won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 10.5Under won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 4.5Over won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 5.5Over won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 6.5Under won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 7.5Under won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 8.5Under won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 9.5Under won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Tampa Bay Rays vs. Miami MarlinsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.