MLB · resolved market
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6f21b5182f010ab5394e67a9c27a964985a29a1ccecf7af8154a8b16d209e8c8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $110,896
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $110,880
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $110,896 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 56 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb91a…3987backed Over | 44c | 87,043$38,299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38,298.74 | 135 | 61.5%83 W · 52 L | +15.2wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 61+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd696…8a49backed Under | 56c | 44,817$25,097 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19,719.29 | 321 | 52%167 W · 154 L | +7.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x72d8…5213backed Under | 56c | 35,000$19,600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15,399.99 | 66 | 62.1%41 W · 25 L | +9.2wins | +0.14per pick | 48cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 56c | 22,696$12,639 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,057.03 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58c6…eeb6backed Over | 45c | 6,839$3,060 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,060.35 | 159 | 42.8%68 W · 91 L | -6.6wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xba67…4727backed Over | 44c | 4,179$1,839 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,838.76 | 750 | 49.7%373 W · 377 L | +7.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b1e…65c1backed Over | 45c | 1,850$833 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$832.5 | 299 | 48.8%146 W · 153 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 51c | 1,199$616 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$583.11 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 44c | 1,000$440 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$440.01 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x815f…1eefbacked Under | 55c | 855.28$470 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$384.88 | 912 | 52.4%478 W · 434 L | +12.5wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Under | 55c | 853.92$473 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$381.38 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe4a0…3accbacked Over | 45c | 644.08$288 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$288.43 | 59 | 54.2%32 W · 27 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39e9…e2dfbacked Over | 45c | 500$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225 | 72 | 59.7%43 W · 29 L | +6.3wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x43f3…293cbacked Over | 44c | 475.76$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 195 | 50.8%99 W · 96 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93a0…6623backed Over | 45c | 444.44$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 398 | 46.5%185 W · 213 L | -16.9wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Under | 55c | 418.91$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.51 | 1,769 | 51.6%912 W · 857 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1f6…0981backed Over | 45c | 408.51$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.83 | 158 | 57.6%91 W · 67 L | +7.3wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c91…b4d2backed Over | 45c | 320.99$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.45 | 127 | 52.8%67 W · 60 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf3f…1365backed Over | 45c | 222.22$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 151 | 59.6%90 W · 61 L | +10.0wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3afb…0004backed Over | 45c | 219.79$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.46 | 106 | 50%53 W · 53 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa180…dd7abacked Over | 34c | 205.56$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8508…c22fbacked Under | 56c | 191.07$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.07 | 1,000 | 52.4%524 W · 476 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3599…5338backed Over | 45c | 177.78$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 128 | 48.4%62 W · 66 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x13ec…6452backed Over | 63c | 158.73$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 50 | 64%32 W · 18 L | +5.1wins | +0.10per pick | 54cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdcf5…829cbacked Over | 40c | 153.73$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.41 | 37 | 64.9%24 W · 13 L | +6.3wins | +0.17per pick | 48cpaid | +36.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x584f…54b9backed Under | 56c | 143.45$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.12 | 187 | 41.2%77 W · 110 L | -11.2wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc235…99f8backed Over | 44c | 140.8$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.95 | 890 | 53.1%473 W · 417 L | +5.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4dd…23ffbacked Over | 41c | 120$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.2 | 394 | 40.9%161 W · 233 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6474…bd11backed Over | 45c | 113.58$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.11 | 42 | 59.5%25 W · 17 L | +3.6wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x09ee…90a4backed Under | 56c | 113$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.72 | 1,569 | 51.1%801 W · 768 L | +15.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Under | 59c | 111.18$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.93 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf768…7831backed Over | 45c | 110.17$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.35 | 42 | 59.5%25 W · 17 L | +3.3wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc23a…cb30backed Over | 45c | 101.67$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.75 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.28per pick | 48cpaid | -60%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Over | 44c | 100.02$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.01 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd325…8c5fbacked Over | 40c | 100$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 252 | 60.3%152 W · 100 L | +16.6wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x87f8…7de3backed Over | 42c | 90$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.8 | 381 | 42%160 W · 221 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34c1…8454backed Under | 61c | 89.44$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.88 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.19per pick | 53cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked Over | 39c | 89.44$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.88 | 295 | 47.1%139 W · 156 L | +9.3wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x290f…0c10backed Over | 45c | 88.89$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -3.0wins | -0.38per pick | 50cpaid | -71.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xcfc9…da4cbacked Over | 45c | 68.73$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.78 | 30 | 63.3%19 W · 11 L | +3.5wins | +0.12per pick | 52cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4b78…c0eebacked Over | 44c | 68.18$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -2.9wins | -0.24per pick | 49cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6600…d5fdbacked Over | 45c | 60$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 81 | 45.7%37 W · 44 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Over | 41c | 57.29$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.48 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcfbc…1fb5backed Under | 56c | 49.05$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.58 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f14…ca5abacked Over | 43c | 46.81$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.33 | 1,042 | 49.4%515 W · 527 L | +13.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9bba…e4a7backed Over | 45c | 44.44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 68 | 50%34 W · 34 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Over | 44c | 43.43$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.11 | 2,945 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1631…072dbacked Under | 64c | 43.34$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.6 | 773 | 53.9%417 W · 356 L | +35.9wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 42c | 41.16$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.45 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xada8…2a67backed Over | 45c | 33.33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +28.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3306…50dabacked Over | 45c | 32.82$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.77 | 31 | 61.3%19 W · 12 L | +2.9wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc718…64a8backed Under | 39c | 26.84$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.37 | 1,083 | 56.3%610 W · 473 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Under | 65c | 26.78$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.41 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 43c | 23.54$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.12 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd533…d6a1backed Over | 45c | 23$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.35 | 46 | 52.2%24 W · 22 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Under | 57c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 1,804 | 53.8%970 W · 834 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 8.5this page
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-3.5)Tampa Bay Rays won
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5)Tampa Bay Rays won
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-2.5)Tampa Bay Rays won
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-3.5)Tampa Bay Rays won
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-4.5)Tampa Bay Rays won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Miami MarlinsTampa Bay Rays won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 10.5Under won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 4.5Over won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 5.5Over won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 6.5Under won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 7.5Under won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 9.5Under won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Tampa Bay Rays vs. Miami MarlinsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.