MLB · resolved market
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 7.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf2e208cbf8f1b512ab840b4a76811b97a7b6dbb54781b668cfb5fda91923ea07
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $59,913
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $59,041
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $59,913 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 60 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa8e0…ad50backed Under | 49c | 27,386$13,414 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13,972.09 | 311 | 49.2%153 W · 158 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16bb…8492backed Over | 54c | 19,037$10,280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,280.08 | 865 | 48.7%421 W · 444 L | -8.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Under | 46c | 11,081$5,105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,976.93 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1117…3532backed Over | 51c | 10,000$5,100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,100 | 604 | 51%308 W · 296 L | -2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 50c | 4,254$2,121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,120.52 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Over | 51c | 2,463$1,256 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,255.91 | 2,291 | 52.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x459e…7dd1backed Over | 51c | 2,110$1,076 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,075.94 | 70 | 47.1%33 W · 37 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf438…9559backed Over | 53c | 2,000$1,060 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,060 | 49 | 49%24 W · 25 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Under | 48c | 1,263$603 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$660.43 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Under | 46c | 1,175$540 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$634.4 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57b1…4b99backed Over | 54c | 1,111$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$599.99 | 175 | 46.9%82 W · 93 L | -9.2wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x815f…1eefbacked Over | 62c | 1,022$633 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$633.42 | 912 | 52.4%478 W · 434 L | +12.5wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Under | 46c | 1,000$460 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$540 | 1,836 | 50.8%932 W · 904 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 46c | 1,000$460 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$540 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 47c | 1,000$471 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$528.89 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Over | 52c | 875$451 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450.73 | 1,769 | 51.6%912 W · 857 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Under | 46c | 811.95$373 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$438.45 | 1,572 | 48.3%759 W · 813 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 33c | 728.94$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$489 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8884…3457backed Over | 53c | 672.85$357 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$356.61 | 281 | 54.4%153 W · 128 L | +9.9wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5966…af5dbacked Over | 54c | 659.84$354 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$353.71 | 272 | 49.3%134 W · 138 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Over | 47c | 643.22$303 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$303.06 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 40c | 528.47$212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$316.86 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x068c…582ebacked Over | 53c | 471.7$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 384 | 55.2%212 W · 172 L | +9.9wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed Over | 72c | 451.82$324 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$324.35 | 2,243 | 57.6%1,293 W · 950 L | +37.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb1b…69f2backed Under | 46c | 450.15$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$243.08 | 1,056 | 48.3%510 W · 546 L | -16.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7760…21f0backed Over | 51c | 428$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218.28 | 2,369 | 47.4%1,122 W · 1,247 L | -11.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x135d…56c0backed Over | 59c | 333.39$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.62 | 61 | 54.1%33 W · 28 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 31c | 304.33$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.31 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc235…99f8backed Under | 46c | 260$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.4 | 890 | 53.1%473 W · 417 L | +5.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35e7…8331backed Over | 53c | 200$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106 | 1,001 | 48.3%483 W · 518 L | -15.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8351…9bebbacked Over | 54c | 185.19$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 652 | 48.3%315 W · 337 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b6…0163backed Under | 47c | 179.36$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.06 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +112.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa057…d092backed Over | 23c | 178.4$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.03 | 2,144 | 39.6%849 W · 1,295 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 62c | 168$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.55 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09ee…90a4backed Under | 50c | 166$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83 | 1,569 | 51.1%801 W · 768 L | +15.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Under | 47c | 154$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.62 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Over | 51c | 150$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 46c | 145.5$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.57 | 2,296 | 49.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L | +37.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe88…67a8backed Over | 74c | 128.63$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.19 | 970 | 50.7%492 W · 478 L | +13.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6210…4fb1backed Under | 48c | 104$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.08 | 147 | 59.9%88 W · 59 L | +14.5wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5b8d…bb92backed Over | 53c | 100$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 586 | 52.7%309 W · 277 L | +14.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Under | 32c | 96$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.28 | 1,843 | 43.6%804 W · 1,039 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc718…64a8backed Under | 27c | 75.49$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.12 | 1,083 | 56.3%610 W · 473 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9c…3648backed Over | 74c | 67.07$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.63 | 1,733 | 49%849 W · 884 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Under | 53c | 64.12$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.06 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d9e…e0e3backed Under | 75c | 57$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.25 | 1,075 | 58.3%627 W · 448 L | -21.3wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe722…57c5backed Over | 53c | 56.6$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 945 | 49%463 W · 482 L | -38.2wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x36f4…0eb2backed Under | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 859 | 49.1%422 W · 437 L | -3.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x718d…2b46backed Over | 53c | 40$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.2 | 465 | 57.2%266 W · 199 L | +11.3wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x523c…2c05backed Under | 65c | 40$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.9 | 130 | 53.1%69 W · 61 L | -11.0wins | -0.08per pick | 62cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe581…d77abacked Over | 51c | 38.63$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.74 | 76 | 50%38 W · 38 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb46…56e7backed Over | 54c | 35.76$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.31 | 597 | 49.9%298 W · 299 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8263…e0f1backed Over | 39c | 27.15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 347 | 54.8%190 W · 157 L | +12.5wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e2f…f9babacked Over | 39c | 27.08$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.44 | 726 | 55.4%402 W · 324 L | +40.2wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0e…4f01backed Over | 53c | 25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.25 | 556 | 43.9%244 W · 312 L | -38.6wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x58c6…eeb6backed Over | 74c | 22.55$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.76 | 159 | 42.8%68 W · 91 L | -6.6wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9555…889abacked Over | 54c | 20.3$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.96 | 1,001 | 57.3%574 W · 427 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 67c | 20.15$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.43 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc56b…772abacked Over | 54c | 18.69$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.09 | 107 | 59.8%64 W · 43 L | +4.0wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Under | 71c | 15.52$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.5 | 439 | 54.7%240 W · 199 L | +30.6wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 7.5this page
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-3.5)Tampa Bay Rays won
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5)Tampa Bay Rays won
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-2.5)Tampa Bay Rays won
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-3.5)Tampa Bay Rays won
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-4.5)Tampa Bay Rays won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Miami MarlinsTampa Bay Rays won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 10.5Under won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 4.5Over won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 5.5Over won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 6.5Under won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 8.5Under won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 9.5Under won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Tampa Bay Rays vs. Miami MarlinsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.