Champions League · resolved market
Exact Score: FC Bayern München 4 - 2 Paris Saint-Germain FC?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4cfa83c5081d9609e32fc273a43bd3c3bee7e4c5e542c2ed077eee290d4e41b3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Champions Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,508
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,581
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,508 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Champions League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Champions League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x72d7…1b97backed Yes | 6c | 1,667$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 106 | 28.3%30 W · 76 L | +5.3wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7253…8e0bbacked Yes | 6c | 1,625$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x88f7…60cfbacked Yes | 6c | 1,167$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd3f…caf9backed Yes | 6c | 833.33$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b2f…f3f6backed Yes | 6c | 833.33$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6df5…6430backed Yes | 6c | 500$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 32 | 18.8%6 W · 26 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -49.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85ac…80eebacked Yes | 6c | 372.5$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.35 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2a95backed Yes | 6c | 362.83$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.57 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe28a…c5b7backed Yes | 6c | 333.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…eb9cbacked Yes | 6c | 333.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.14per pick | 24cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f93…f75cbacked Yes | 6c | 333.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb92f…d78abacked Yes | 6c | 320.67$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.24 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed Yes | 5c | 260.97$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.93 | 93 | 32.3%30 W · 63 L | -4.8wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b39…bc0dbacked Yes | 6c | 250$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | +5.1wins | +0.17per pick | 22cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xbe8b…517cbacked Yes | 8c | 250$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 39 | 15.4%6 W · 33 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf79c…94eabacked Yes | 6c | 216.67$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3ea…0d2abacked Yes | 6c | 203.33$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc43c…1310backed Yes | 6c | 200$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x81f8…ead6backed Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4130…2fd6backed Yes | 51c | 49.02$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | -4.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Champions League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 24 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Exact Score: FC Bayern München 4 - 2 Paris Saint-Germain FC?this page
- Exact Score: Any Other Score?No won
- Exact Score: FC Bayern München 0 - 0 Paris Saint-Germain FC?No won
- Exact Score: FC Bayern München 1 - 0 Paris Saint-Germain FC?No won
- Exact Score: FC Bayern München 1 - 1 Paris Saint-Germain FC?Yes won
- Exact Score: FC Bayern München 2 - 0 Paris Saint-Germain FC?No won
- Exact Score: FC Bayern München 2 - 1 Paris Saint-Germain FC?No won
- Exact Score: FC Bayern München 2 - 2 Paris Saint-Germain FC?No won
- Exact Score: FC Bayern München 3 - 0 Paris Saint-Germain FC?No won
- Exact Score: FC Bayern München 3 - 1 Paris Saint-Germain FC?No won
- Exact Score: FC Bayern München 3 - 2 Paris Saint-Germain FC?No won
- Exact Score: FC Bayern München 3 - 3 Paris Saint-Germain FC?No won
- Exact Score: FC Bayern München 4 - 0 Paris Saint-Germain FC?No won
- Exact Score: FC Bayern München 4 - 1 Paris Saint-Germain FC?No won
- Exact Score: FC Bayern München 4 - 3 Paris Saint-Germain FC?No won
- Exact Score: FC Bayern München 4 - 4 Paris Saint-Germain FC?No won
- Exact Score: FC Bayern München 5 - 1 Paris Saint-Germain FC?No won
- Exact Score: FC Bayern München 5 - 2 Paris Saint-Germain FC?No won
- Exact Score: FC Bayern München 5 - 3 Paris Saint-Germain FC?No won
- Exact Score: FC Bayern München 5 - 4 Paris Saint-Germain FC?No won
- Exact Score: FC Bayern München 6 - 0 Paris Saint-Germain FC?No won
- Exact Score: FC Bayern München 6 - 2 Paris Saint-Germain FC?No won
- Exact Score: FC Bayern München 6 - 3 Paris Saint-Germain FC?No won
- Exact Score: FC Bayern München 6 - 4 Paris Saint-Germain FC?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.