Tennis · resolved market
Madrid Open: Linda Noskova vs Emiliana Arango
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4d03739218eef7419ad4743d2489d90028f76fce210a1d7d09f4a1d04fa071c6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Linda Noskovaof Linda Noskova, Emiliana Arango
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $77,256
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $93,294
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $77,256 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6846…2893backed Emiliana Arango | 0c | 10,435$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.75 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5c…d8e6backed Emiliana Arango | 12c | 8,575$1,029 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,029 | 1,090 | 35.9%391 W · 699 L | +16.2wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe272…20b6backed Emiliana Arango | 0c | 5,397$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.74 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +17%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fa5…63afbacked Emiliana Arango | 3c | 3,410$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.4 | 78 | 10.3%8 W · 70 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked Emiliana Arango | 16c | 3,345$534 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$533.64 | 3,884 | 35%1,358 W · 2,526 L | +92.8wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Emiliana Arango | 9c | 1,849$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.32 | 1,444 | 38%548 W · 896 L | -46.0wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9fd4…3db3backed Emiliana Arango | 1c | 1,646$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.79 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Emiliana Arango | 9c | 1,090$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.54 | 8,241 | 45.5%3,746 W · 4,495 L | +166.2wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa01…f0a7backed Emiliana Arango | 12c | 1,063$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.13 | 910 | 50.2%457 W · 453 L | -20.8wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e1b…ecafbacked Emiliana Arango | 8c | 896.53$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.43 | 2,523 | 39.6%1,000 W · 1,523 L | -3.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x71d0…b8ddbacked Emiliana Arango | 2c | 781.49$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.36 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d29…f683backed Emiliana Arango | 14c | 379.98$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.2 | 336 | 47.3%159 W · 177 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3279…dc42backed Emiliana Arango | 4c | 316.29$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.35 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed Emiliana Arango | 13c | 299.33$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.91 | 360 | 32.5%117 W · 243 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc470…c792backed Emiliana Arango | 13c | 291.63$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.91 | 1,504 | 35.1%528 W · 976 L | +12.5wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe857…7b3bbacked Emiliana Arango | 7c | 269.77$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.88 | 838 | 23.2%194 W · 644 L | -58.0wins | -0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf96d…20bebacked Emiliana Arango | 9c | 254.34$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.62 | 482 | 14.1%68 W · 414 L | -14.8wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc82d…7199backed Emiliana Arango | 15c | 231.56$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.73 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f8d…8b2cbacked Emiliana Arango | 9c | 220$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.81 | 380 | 13.9%53 W · 327 L | -38.3wins | -0.10per pick | 24cpaid | -55.2%equal weight | 39-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…c7a2backed Emiliana Arango | 14c | 203.56$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.69 | 299 | 55.2%165 W · 134 L | +10.0wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9034…f7dfbacked Emiliana Arango | 6c | 199.97$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 51 | 17.6%9 W · 42 L | -6.9wins | -0.13per pick | 31cpaid | -71.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1b0f…b7aebacked Emiliana Arango | 14c | 192.75$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.99 | 414 | 36.7%152 W · 262 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x09b5…fd79backed Emiliana Arango | 10c | 178.74$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.21 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -3.8wins | -0.19per pick | 44cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2f57…3e7abacked Emiliana Arango | 14c | 145.38$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.35 | 850 | 57.5%489 W · 361 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x332e…df71backed Emiliana Arango | 14c | 135.49$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.97 | 429 | 34.7%149 W · 280 L | -13.3wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc84…3996backed Emiliana Arango | 14c | 135.49$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.97 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.11per pick | 43cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4b49…0397backed Emiliana Arango | 13c | 132.88$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.27 | 587 | 34.6%203 W · 384 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x087d…b872backed Emiliana Arango | 14c | 105.27$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.74 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3101…e57fbacked Emiliana Arango | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.15 | 112 | 43.8%49 W · 63 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ded…9025backed Emiliana Arango | 14c | 94.84$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.28 | 248 | 37.5%93 W · 155 L | -5.5wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x49ec…ac1cbacked Emiliana Arango | 14c | 83.46$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.68 | 113 | 31%35 W · 78 L | -11.2wins | -0.10per pick | 41cpaid | -38%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xab69…8968backed Emiliana Arango | 14c | 81.62$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.59 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +40.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Madrid Open: Linda Noskova vs Emiliana Arangothis page
- Set Handicap: Noskova (-1.5) vs Arango (+1.5)Noskova won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.