Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 37°C on April 3?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4d34f8e013e02f58634209bb9b81bf0fef81f9f44447003a493ebd1d2f801d8d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,572
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,779
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,572 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0a19…3c95backed No | 77c | 607.47$467 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.17 | 428 | 57%244 W · 184 L | +8.9wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 12c | 590.77$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.76 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 30c | 497.81$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.3 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 24c | 434.35$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.08 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 24c | 432.04$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.44 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb7…6f27backed Yes | 3c | 399.51$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.58 | 600 | 4.2%25 W · 575 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed Yes | 14c | 387.72$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.65 | 1,285 | 19.5%250 W · 1,035 L | +44.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked Yes | 8c | 272.83$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.06 | 591 | 21.5%127 W · 464 L | -30.1wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 77c | 253.23$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.65 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb55c…04eabacked No | 75c | 247.39$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.43 | 201 | 72.6%146 W · 55 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 76cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 75c | 198.56$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.71 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 72c | 142.38$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.27 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe8c…e526backed Yes | 24c | 141.11$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.36 | 87 | 27.6%24 W · 63 L | -4.6wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -27%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 76c | 140.85$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.23 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0645…c08ebacked Yes | 27c | 140.18$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.96 | 63 | 38.1%24 W · 39 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e24…7379backed Yes | 25c | 138.95$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.99 | 456 | 19.1%87 W · 369 L | -11.8wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -24%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 23c | 135.27$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.51 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf4cc…a95dbacked No | 72c | 134.49$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.31 | 70 | 81.4%57 W · 13 L | +10.1wins | +0.14per pick | 67cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x2347…5adfbacked Yes | 30c | 129.28$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.13 | 119 | 38.7%46 W · 73 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 74c | 121.73$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.65 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa8ae…7f3ebacked Yes | 13c | 114.14$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.06 | 191 | 23%44 W · 147 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 22c | 99.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d5f…867dbacked Yes | 14c | 98.36$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.77 | 114 | 49.1%56 W · 58 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6372…4a25backed No | 76c | 96.42$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.75 | 410 | 70.5%289 W · 121 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1746…24a5backed Yes | 22c | 90.89$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 55 | 20%11 W · 44 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 76c | 78.06$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.48 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed No | 71c | 72.05$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.09 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 74c | 70$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.55 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9bda…439fbacked Yes | 15c | 66.67$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 594 | 40.6%241 W · 353 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa631…7651backed Yes | 21c | 61.4$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.89 | 102 | 25.5%26 W · 76 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x875e…e6b5backed No | 73c | 58.41$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.51 | 81 | 76.5%62 W · 19 L | +14.7wins | +0.18per pick | 58cpaid | +39%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x052e…ade1backed Yes | 23c | 46.35$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.67 | 283 | 29.3%83 W · 200 L | -13.6wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a1e…5349backed Yes | 26c | 46.32$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.27 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xebda…75a9backed Yes | 26c | 42.8$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.13 | 217 | 22.6%49 W · 168 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x13d3…415ebacked No | 75c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.9 | 422 | 53.1%224 W · 198 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcaca…a0b6backed No | 76c | 39.75$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.54 | 296 | 53.4%158 W · 138 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed No | 79c | 39.16$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.22 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4a3…fc4abacked No | 74c | 37.95$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.74 | 130 | 59.2%77 W · 53 L | -11.4wins | -0.09per pick | 68cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd0a1…9f22backed Yes | 27c | 37.6$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.26 | 30 | 23.3%7 W · 23 L | -3.6wins | -0.12per pick | 35cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2102…f516backed Yes | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 70c | 28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x131d…2a50backed No | 74c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.5 | 103 | 35.9%37 W · 66 L | -15.3wins | -0.15per pick | 51cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xe744…67a8backed No | 68c | 24.65$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.89 | 154 | 77.9%120 W · 34 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 75cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa912…297fbacked No | 70c | 21.28$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.43 | 636 | 56.1%357 W · 279 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa511…010bbacked No | 74c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.95 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | -2.1wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 37°C on April 3?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 34°C or below on April 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 35°C on April 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 36°C on April 3?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 38°C on April 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 39°C on April 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 41°C on April 3?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.