Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 36°C on April 3?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6faa656fe8b32761a793200718b37f986244ee1bab611d836b584d01fd4828fa
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,202
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,852
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,202 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 68 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfbb7…6f27backed Yes | 55c | 910.22$496 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$414.04 | 600 | 4.2%25 W · 575 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed No | 6c | 813.1$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.79 | 621 | 9.8%61 W · 560 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bfc…98e0backed No | 1c | 799.96$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 34 | 8.8%3 W · 31 L | -4.2wins | -0.12per pick | 21cpaid | -76.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3b3d…1e5abacked Yes | 2c | 600$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$589 | 52 | 3.8%2 W · 50 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 2cpaid | +93.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 23c | 561.38$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$434.06 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb077…74d3backed No | 4c | 538.25$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.53 | 669 | 44.7%299 W · 370 L | +3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xedd1…45a9backed Yes | 2c | 518.21$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$508.03 | 73 | 5.5%4 W · 69 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 2cpaid | +161.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4e2…fb46backed Yes | 27c | 371.73$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$271.75 | 167 | 38.9%65 W · 102 L | +7.9wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x64c0…b4b9backed Yes | 4c | 270$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$259.2 | 241 | 9.5%23 W · 218 L | -5.5wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb70d…43f4backed Yes | 63c | 246.83$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.4 | 173 | 58.4%101 W · 72 L | +14.3wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +56.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2347…5adfbacked Yes | 40c | 241.96$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.01 | 119 | 38.7%46 W · 73 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 27c | 224.13$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.75 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 51c | 213.7$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.52 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 28c | 206.28$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.82 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe3a6…9e63backed Yes | 13c | 204.82$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.58 | 332 | 32.8%109 W · 223 L | +18.8wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 20c | 202.9$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.42 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 30c | 166.67$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a5e…81ffbacked Yes | 30c | 164.2$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.94 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 73c | 162.33$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.6 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 14c | 160.11$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.05 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 31c | 157.18$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.57 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 69c | 153.23$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.85 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked No | 11c | 152.94$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.16 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 63c | 152.16$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.55 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x354d…eb8fbacked Yes | 15c | 151.62$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.55 | 701 | 33.5%235 W · 466 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 45c | 147.36$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.89 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38a7…d69dbacked No | 48c | 146.39$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.57 | 235 | 49.4%116 W · 119 L | -12.8wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbe8c…e526backed Yes | 32c | 144.83$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99 | 87 | 27.6%24 W · 63 L | -4.6wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -27%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf4cc…a95dbacked No | 70c | 136.31$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.08 | 70 | 81.4%57 W · 13 L | +10.1wins | +0.14per pick | 67cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xafb1…0329backed No | 70c | 133.27$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.98 | 81 | 60.5%49 W · 32 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e2b…3d17backed Yes | 39c | 130.58$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.77 | 87 | 62.1%54 W · 33 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a19…3c95backed No | 78c | 122.21$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.96 | 428 | 57%244 W · 184 L | +8.9wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe07e…0e7ebacked Yes | 41c | 119.74$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.64 | 334 | 50.6%169 W · 165 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x027c…b158backed Yes | 10c | 110$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 12cpaid | +32.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 25c | 103.99$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.03 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 30c | 100.36$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.43 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 41c | 100$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc393…66f9backed Yes | 32c | 94.13$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.39 | 129 | 32.6%42 W · 87 L | -8.9wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x95d4…839abacked Yes | 29c | 83.1$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.14 | 281 | 19.9%56 W · 225 L | -12.9wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 65c | 71.73$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.86 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadb0…1c8cbacked Yes | 45c | 62.43$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.07 | 541 | 43.1%233 W · 308 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +42.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46dc…92c3backed No | 71c | 61.39$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.54 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -48.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x356b…1c3fbacked Yes | 24c | 58.95$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.84 | 591 | 25.9%153 W · 438 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x875e…e6b5backed No | 71c | 58.24$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.16 | 81 | 76.5%62 W · 19 L | +14.7wins | +0.18per pick | 58cpaid | +39%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x2df9…effbbacked No | 74c | 56.43$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.54 | 116 | 59.5%69 W · 47 L | -6.0wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 68c | 51.7$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.39 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 23c | 50.97$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.2 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0b1…6754backed Yes | 43c | 49.32$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.11 | 354 | 65%230 W · 124 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e24…7379backed Yes | 31c | 47.59$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.69 | 456 | 19.1%87 W · 369 L | -11.8wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -24%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd5d…1726backed Yes | 43c | 47.13$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.05 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef0d…ef1cbacked No | 46c | 43.01$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.78 | 218 | 48.6%106 W · 112 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d4a…0b6abacked Yes | 51c | 40.06$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.73 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed No | 68c | 40$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.2 | 1,285 | 19.5%250 W · 1,035 L | +44.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 37c | 37.21$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.54 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd271…37e0backed Yes | 29c | 36.42$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.89 | 310 | 29.7%92 W · 218 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc6fa…51e5backed Yes | 42c | 35.48$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.58 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa8ae…7f3ebacked Yes | 29c | 35$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.85 | 191 | 23%44 W · 147 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2b5…47bfbacked No | 65c | 30.77$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 176 | 33.5%59 W · 117 L | -5.8wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb81…7b82backed No | 66c | 30.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.34 | 130 | 53.1%69 W · 61 L | -7.2wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb4a3…fc4abacked No | 72c | 26.55$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.02 | 130 | 59.2%77 W · 53 L | -11.4wins | -0.09per pick | 68cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb55c…04eabacked No | 75c | 26.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.66 | 201 | 72.6%146 W · 55 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 76cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x070f…e902backed No | 72c | 26.19$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.86 | 114 | 59.6%68 W · 46 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +10%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa912…297fbacked No | 61c | 25.76$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.67 | 636 | 56.1%357 W · 279 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 64c | 25.47$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.33 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfff1…12e4backed No | 46c | 21.97$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.11 | 45 | 35.6%16 W · 29 L | -5.2wins | -0.12per pick | 47cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x107e…8367backed No | 73c | 14.89$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.92 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -1.8wins | -0.12per pick | 39cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9bf2…442bbacked No | 70c | 14.31$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | -1.6wins | -0.08per pick | 70cpaid | -10%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 36°C on April 3?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 34°C or below on April 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 35°C on April 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 37°C on April 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 38°C on April 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 39°C on April 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 41°C on April 3?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.