Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 34°C or below on April 3?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa25e512629e9df0c71b195f83f1ada5a75a8cdabf3b9ce1423122e677bdb089c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $45,392
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $46,880
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $45,392 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 56 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc279…7023backed Yes | 0c | 13,610$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.61 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | +2.1wins | +0.11per pick | 26cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x672f…13ccbacked No | 66c | 872.54$577 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$295.92 | 330 | 58.8%194 W · 136 L | +10.8wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 21c | 715.75$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.52 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd138…aac0backed Yes | 3c | 645.16$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.3 | 92 | 21.7%20 W · 72 L | -8.1wins | -0.09per pick | 31cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed Yes | 9c | 596.45$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.84 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 23c | 486.84$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.43 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x58a4…7456backed Yes | 5c | 462.16$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.75 | 230 | 22.6%52 W · 178 L | -10.1wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe3a6…9e63backed Yes | 4c | 412.11$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.76 | 332 | 32.8%109 W · 223 L | +18.8wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9bda…439fbacked No | 62c | 393.07$245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.51 | 594 | 40.6%241 W · 353 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x594e…1c11backed Yes | 42c | 367.32$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153 | 661 | 44.5%294 W · 367 L | +57.8wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed No | 58c | 283.32$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.86 | 1,285 | 19.5%250 W · 1,035 L | +44.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b8…4bdfbacked Yes | 23c | 252.69$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.07 | 342 | 19.9%68 W · 274 L | +18.6wins | +0.05per pick | 14cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2102…f516backed Yes | 7c | 213.02$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.91 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed22…6450backed Yes | 10c | 206.15$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.83 | 431 | 39.2%169 W · 262 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 10c | 205.77$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.49 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x354d…eb8fbacked Yes | 26c | 199.99$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.55 | 701 | 33.5%235 W · 466 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 74c | 184.85$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.93 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x775c…4151backed Yes | 22c | 173.83$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.55 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed Yes | 17c | 173.42$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.35 | 1,804 | 27.4%494 W · 1,310 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc17e…906abacked Yes | 22c | 164.58$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.71 | 540 | 43.9%237 W · 303 L | +11.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2dcf…c0f2backed Yes | 8c | 161.91$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.48 | 167 | 9%15 W · 152 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x767c…5441backed Yes | 8c | 143.11$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.99 | 81 | 43.2%35 W · 46 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64c0…b4b9backed Yes | 12c | 139.06$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.36 | 241 | 9.5%23 W · 218 L | -5.5wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3da3…0fdcbacked Yes | 28c | 130.04$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.3 | 1,024 | 25%256 W · 768 L | +20.4wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe752…2200backed Yes | 20c | 129.09$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.86 | 1,204 | 25.3%305 W · 899 L | +18.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33e4…0618backed Yes | 35c | 112.06$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x105c…1011backed Yes | 19c | 105.28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 112 | 20.5%23 W · 89 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked No | 69c | 102.31$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.98 | 1,026 | 60.8%624 W · 402 L | +11.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa26f…1071backed Yes | 33c | 97.77$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.63 | 376 | 44.9%169 W · 207 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 15c | 94.23$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.11 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1685…97abbacked Yes | 37c | 85.5$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.62 | 167 | 40.1%67 W · 100 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13d3…415ebacked Yes | 14c | 80$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.96 | 422 | 53.1%224 W · 198 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ba…c5d8backed Yes | 13c | 77.35$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 251 | 30.7%77 W · 174 L | -9.8wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6209…e82fbacked Yes | 16c | 70.47$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.34 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -2.3wins | -0.13per pick | 40cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x216e…4e32backed No | 73c | 70.46$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.27 | 40 | 65%26 W · 14 L | +2.6wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x29ad…8d47backed Yes | 25c | 68.59$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.86 | 46 | 43.5%20 W · 26 L | +2.6wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b11…2976backed Yes | 50c | 57.54$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.49 | 499 | 41.7%208 W · 291 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a2f…a13cbacked No | 80c | 53.81$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.83 | 59 | 81.4%48 W · 11 L | +4.7wins | +0.08per pick | 73cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 22c | 47.6$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.65 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked No | 78c | 44.09$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.86 | 591 | 21.5%127 W · 464 L | -30.1wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xef0d…ef1cbacked No | 48c | 41.58$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.58 | 218 | 48.6%106 W · 112 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked Yes | 38c | 41.33$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.71 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x975a…f961backed Yes | 28c | 40.12$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda7b…3c9fbacked No | 77c | 38.96$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.96 | 125 | 67.2%84 W · 41 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb5b0…64f3backed Yes | 35c | 35.39$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.36 | 176 | 43.2%76 W · 100 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfab3…1f0abacked Yes | 50c | 34.38$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.03 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -58.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8d…038bbacked No | 76c | 29.28$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.03 | 294 | 69.7%205 W · 89 L | +26.7wins | +0.09per pick | 61cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 59c | 25.71$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.62 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x672e…5955backed No | 79c | 24.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50b1…0793backed No | 79c | 24.48$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.09 | 436 | 63.5%277 W · 159 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34ab…4e36backed No | 80c | 23.89$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.78 | 197 | 72.6%143 W · 54 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 70cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe744…67a8backed No | 73c | 23.16$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.25 | 154 | 77.9%120 W · 34 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 75cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfff1…12e4backed No | 49c | 20.59$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.58 | 45 | 35.6%16 W · 29 L | -5.2wins | -0.12per pick | 47cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfcdc…57b3backed No | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 105 | 77.1%81 W · 24 L | +11.1wins | +0.11per pick | 67cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x805a…ff74backed No | 77c | 19.53$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.56 | 52 | 55.8%29 W · 23 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 79c | 12.89$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.68 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 34°C or below on April 3?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 35°C on April 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 36°C on April 3?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 37°C on April 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 38°C on April 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 39°C on April 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 41°C on April 3?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.