Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 35°C on April 3?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4fcd814c967ad00a80f4d0d706eedd7467c409006ed6361c447dc1c66bdb5292
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,715
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,726
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,715 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 71 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xacd4…888cbacked Yes | 2c | 1,028$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.11 | 25 | 20%5 W · 20 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -44.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed Yes | 6c | 625$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.5 | 621 | 9.8%61 W · 560 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8640…faedbacked Yes | 3c | 606.31$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.32 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.20per pick | 20cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 28c | 579.86$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.65 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe2fb…1c67backed Yes | 70c | 278.54$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.92 | 98 | 77.6%76 W · 22 L | +16.3wins | +0.17per pick | 61cpaid | +38.3%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked Yes | 16c | 254.11$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.55 | 591 | 21.5%127 W · 464 L | -30.1wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed Yes | 25c | 230.83$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.02 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb99…b393backed No | 46c | 200.61$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.77 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 21c | 189.78$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.88 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 71c | 183.13$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.19 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 30c | 166.67$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.67 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x354d…eb8fbacked Yes | 34c | 165.59$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.56 | 701 | 33.5%235 W · 466 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 68c | 164.94$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.07 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0645…c08ebacked Yes | 8c | 163.61$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.52 | 63 | 38.1%24 W · 39 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 21c | 160.37$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.07 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe8c…e526backed Yes | 25c | 142.95$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.33 | 87 | 27.6%24 W · 63 L | -4.6wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -27%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd87…5eb3backed No | 58c | 124.23$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.8 | 60 | 65%39 W · 21 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2b5…47bfbacked No | 65c | 123.08$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.08 | 176 | 33.5%59 W · 117 L | -5.8wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc13…5eb6backed No | 80c | 121.74$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.35 | 517 | 62.3%322 W · 195 L | -15.5wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0198…133bbacked No | 31c | 121.39$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.04 | 184 | 52.2%96 W · 88 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58a4…7456backed Yes | 19c | 117.42$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.98 | 230 | 22.6%52 W · 178 L | -10.1wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x775c…4151backed Yes | 66c | 115.92$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.51 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5b11…2976backed Yes | 22c | 110.61$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.01 | 499 | 41.7%208 W · 291 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed Yes | 18c | 110.01$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.26 | 1,804 | 27.4%494 W · 1,310 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed No | 75c | 104.38$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.61 | 1,285 | 19.5%250 W · 1,035 L | +44.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 25c | 99.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbc0…1843backed No | 80c | 98.98$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.04 | 143 | 72%103 W · 40 L | +6.5wins | +0.05per pick | 67cpaid | +1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd138…aac0backed Yes | 17c | 97.92$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.26 | 92 | 21.7%20 W · 72 L | -8.1wins | -0.09per pick | 31cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2102…f516backed Yes | 21c | 95.56$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64c0…b4b9backed Yes | 18c | 94$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.46 | 241 | 9.5%23 W · 218 L | -5.5wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe3a6…9e63backed Yes | 18c | 90.6$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.12 | 332 | 32.8%109 W · 223 L | +18.8wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 24c | 89.48$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.55 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae07…8059backed Yes | 18c | 89.33$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.28 | 435 | 25.3%110 W · 325 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked No | 57c | 86.43$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.93 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 59c | 83.13$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.8 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 47c | 80.36$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.37 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13d3…415ebacked Yes | 19c | 80$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 422 | 53.1%224 W · 198 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce2…dd34backed Yes | 31c | 78.54$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.34 | 107 | 32.7%35 W · 72 L | -8.9wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x070f…e902backed No | 49c | 75.99$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.88 | 114 | 59.6%68 W · 46 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +10%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2347…5adfbacked Yes | 50c | 75.63$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.01 | 119 | 38.7%46 W · 73 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 77c | 70.22$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.25 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa26f…1071backed Yes | 69c | 69.13$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.42 | 376 | 44.9%169 W · 207 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb077…74d3backed No | 33c | 68.2$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.69 | 669 | 44.7%299 W · 370 L | +3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2002…996bbacked Yes | 70c | 66.12$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.56 | 65 | 78.5%51 W · 14 L | +6.9wins | +0.11per pick | 68cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2dcf…c0f2backed Yes | 17c | 64.5$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.13 | 167 | 9%15 W · 152 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0461…fcbcbacked No | 48c | 63.11$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.71 | 724 | 66.2%479 W · 245 L | +33.6wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd7ba…1349backed No | 64c | 62.1$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.45 | 271 | 67.2%182 W · 89 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xedc0…ef70backed No | 52c | 57.05$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.52 | 36 | 58.3%21 W · 15 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8db2…d0f5backed Yes | 23c | 55.39$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.83 | 721 | 25.5%184 W · 537 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabfb…12e5backed Yes | 31c | 53.12$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.29 | 328 | 18.3%60 W · 268 L | +15.8wins | +0.05per pick | 13cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb5b0…64f3backed Yes | 28c | 50.04$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.92 | 176 | 43.2%76 W · 100 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef0d…ef1cbacked Yes | 45c | 44.44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 218 | 48.6%106 W · 112 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c41…6275backed No | 24c | 44$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.27 | 263 | 27.8%73 W · 190 L | +14.9wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbe45…f717backed Yes | 26c | 42.6$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.07 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -50%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38a7…d69dbacked Yes | 67c | 38.68$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.92 | 235 | 49.4%116 W · 119 L | -12.8wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6e41…5e0cbacked No | 68c | 38.24$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.08 | 1,061 | 47.9%508 W · 553 L | +32.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked No | 56c | 38.12$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.89 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcdfb…f641backed No | 79c | 37.73$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.97 | 91 | 64.8%59 W · 32 L | -5.2wins | -0.06per pick | 71cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x594e…1c11backed Yes | 52c | 37.26$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.48 | 661 | 44.5%294 W · 367 L | +57.8wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcafd…b861backed No | 65c | 30.87$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.92 | 72 | 72.2%52 W · 20 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 71cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb81…7b82backed No | 69c | 28.15$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.78 | 130 | 53.1%69 W · 61 L | -7.2wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc67f…5115backed No | 78c | 27.09$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.07 | 108 | 50%54 W · 54 L | -6.0wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0b90…08e7backed Yes | 68c | 26.78$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.21 | 135 | 54.8%74 W · 61 L | -6.9wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b2…21f4backed No | 75c | 23.2$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.87 | 297 | 70.4%209 W · 88 L | +15.2wins | +0.05per pick | 65cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 72c | 22$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.16 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x407d…87b0backed No | 77c | 21.86$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.03 | 36 | 69.4%25 W · 11 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa912…297fbacked No | 79c | 21.45$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.5 | 636 | 56.1%357 W · 279 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0cab…7489backed No | 80c | 19.6$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.92 | 103 | 71.8%74 W · 29 L | +4.3wins | +0.04per pick | 68cpaid | +3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3e…d953backed Yes | 70c | 18.92$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.24 | 63 | 69.8%44 W · 19 L | +4.0wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x77bd…e48fbacked No | 75c | 14.87$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.65 | 209 | 28.7%60 W · 149 L | -45.3wins | -0.22per pick | 50cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 28-0.19 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 35°C on April 3?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 34°C or below on April 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 36°C on April 3?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 37°C on April 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 38°C on April 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 39°C on April 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 41°C on April 3?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.