MLB · resolved market
Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4d50f0e50d6021d6850d1ca3afba51478cfa1781be190304016134140c92146f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- New York Metsof Cleveland Guardians, New York Mets
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,959
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,158
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,959 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked New York Mets | 79c | 2,175$1,723 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$451.69 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Cleveland Guardians | 19c | 1,875$353 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$352.77 | 2,969 | 48.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Cleveland Guardians | 12c | 1,631$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.16 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Cleveland Guardians | 9c | 428.93$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.9 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed Cleveland Guardians | 32c | 400$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128 | 1,206 | 53.7%648 W · 558 L | +29.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed New York Mets | 68c | 239$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.48 | 1,777 | 49.5%880 W · 897 L | +25.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Cleveland Guardians | 34c | 156$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.04 | 5,126 | 54.7%2,804 W · 2,322 L | +231.6wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1621…f040backed Cleveland Guardians | 10c | 145.44$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 61 | 4.9%3 W · 58 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -41.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe84f…b777backed Cleveland Guardians | 14c | 105.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 424 | 51.9%220 W · 204 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Cleveland Guardians | 10c | 102.37$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.58 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Cleveland Guardians | 32c | 100$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 2,296 | 49.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L | +37.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b0f…b7aebacked Cleveland Guardians | 27c | 100$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.48 | 526 | 38.4%202 W · 324 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8e4…3b32backed Cleveland Guardians | 22c | 92.41$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 292 | 51%149 W · 143 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9028…8608backed Cleveland Guardians | 15c | 84.73$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.98 | 470 | 56.6%266 W · 204 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked New York Mets | 67c | 82.13$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.1 | 452 | 52.4%237 W · 215 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed New York Mets | 70c | 78.16$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.81 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5d9e…e0e3backed Cleveland Guardians | 25c | 75.6$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.85 | 1,075 | 58.3%627 W · 448 L | -21.3wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed Cleveland Guardians | 15c | 75.27$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.53 | 733 | 55.3%405 W · 328 L | +22.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x23df…640abacked Cleveland Guardians | 26c | 68.97$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.71 | 400 | 48.5%194 W · 206 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d67…3667backed Cleveland Guardians | 15c | 68.74$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.18 | 556 | 45.3%252 W · 304 L | -17.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Cleveland Guardians | 19c | 68.6$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.85 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe2…6158backed New York Mets | 71c | 56.34$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.34 | 466 | 59.7%278 W · 188 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Cleveland Guardians | 34c | 36.59$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.44 | 3,456 | 51.2%1,771 W · 1,685 L | +107.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e4d…1cb0backed Cleveland Guardians | 31c | 36.51$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.32 | 639 | 54.5%348 W · 291 L | +14.8wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed New York Mets | 69c | 28.09$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.85 | 1,725 | 50.1%864 W · 861 L | -4.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7dae…7199backed New York Mets | 66c | 15.62$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.31 | 131 | 51.1%67 W · 64 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c6…7b39backed New York Mets | 77c | 14.37$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.31 | 232 | 40.9%95 W · 137 L | -9.6wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-1.5)this page
- New York Mets vs. Cleveland GuardiansNew York Mets won
- New York Mets vs. Cleveland Guardians: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Over won
- New York Mets vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 6.5Over won
- New York Mets vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 7.5Over won
- New York Mets vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 8.5Over won
- New York Mets vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: New York Mets (-1.5)Cleveland Guardians won
- Spread: New York Mets (-2.5)Cleveland Guardians won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: New York Mets vs. Cleveland GuardiansNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.