MLB · resolved market
New York Mets vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 9.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x860c8efa37f543983ca6cb9b24c52c9efcb83c7e62fd28646c344f4dc6fc36d7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $37,059
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $37,833
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $37,059 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 57 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xad46…e6a6backed Under | 3c | 3,275$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.75 | 69 | 7.2%5 W · 64 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 4cpaid | +122.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Over | 51c | 2,830$1,443 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,387.07 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e6…4c4ebacked Under | 2c | 2,500$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 50 | 4%2 W · 48 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 3cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35e8…9490backed Under | 2c | 2,500$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 43 | 0%0 W · 43 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0160…c757backed Under | 2c | 2,499$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.99 | 53 | 3.8%2 W · 51 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 3cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 50c | 2,492$1,239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,238.99 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc2e7…91a2backed Under | 3c | 1,700$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 56 | 3.6%2 W · 54 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e50…0ea8backed Under | 2c | 1,509$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.38 | 57 | 7%4 W · 53 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 3cpaid | +83%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Under | 42c | 1,232$517 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$517.24 | 1,796 | 43.8%786 W · 1,010 L | -33.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 58c | 1,093$637 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$636.53 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Under | 50c | 952.38$476 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$476.19 | 2,021 | 39.5%798 W · 1,223 L | -25.7wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd48a…6e90backed Under | 60c | 833.33$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 1,660 | 50.1%832 W · 828 L | -22.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x768f…8a9bbacked Over | 62c | 777.23$482 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$295.35 | 122 | 53.3%65 W · 57 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 30c | 629.68$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$437.9 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 49c | 543.34$265 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$278.25 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 64c | 522.81$337 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$336.77 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f5b…d411backed Under | 61c | 522.54$319 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$318.75 | 40 | 57.5%23 W · 17 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36b3…e421backed Over | 35c | 501.91$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$326.24 | 403 | 41.4%167 W · 236 L | -20.0wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb361…7348backed Under | 61c | 492.99$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 109 | 53.2%58 W · 51 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Over | 36c | 489.75$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$311.72 | 1,777 | 49.5%880 W · 897 L | +25.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Under | 67c | 470.36$317 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$316.6 | 2,969 | 48.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a2f…647abacked Over | 59c | 369.3$219 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.13 | 826 | 36.6%302 W · 524 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Over | 35c | 359.43$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$232.61 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Under | 7c | 319.86$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.36 | 707 | 37.6%266 W · 441 L | +24.5wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Over | 36c | 305.57$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.56 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cd2…7f85backed Over | 36c | 277.78$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.78 | 32 | 81.3%26 W · 6 L | +5.7wins | +0.18per pick | 64cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca9…424abacked Over | 34c | 244.35$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.51 | 799 | 55.9%447 W · 352 L | +21.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Under | 76c | 236$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.36 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 58c | 201.6$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.08 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7d93…fdefbacked Under | 65c | 199.99$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.57 | 168 | 46.4%78 W · 90 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Over | 33c | 181.26$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.06 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x92f3…b21cbacked Under | 57c | 178.37$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.67 | 47 | 51.1%24 W · 23 L | -5.9wins | -0.13per pick | 64cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd9ea…b781backed Under | 65c | 177.69$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.5 | 568 | 51.4%292 W · 276 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a3d…4d49backed Under | 43c | 167$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.81 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +3.0wins | +0.15per pick | 50cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1b0f…b7aebacked Over | 58c | 164.79$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.21 | 526 | 38.4%202 W · 324 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x125a…df71backed Under | 42c | 124$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.08 | 309 | 34.3%106 W · 203 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8987…44d6backed Under | 57c | 105.3$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.02 | 55 | 54.5%30 W · 25 L | -5.0wins | -0.09per pick | 64cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb4bf…60f8backed Under | 54c | 101.56$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.53 | 487 | 51.5%251 W · 236 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc22e…eab8backed Under | 53c | 94.34$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 488 | 51.6%252 W · 236 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x453d…2dbabacked Over | 24c | 92.19$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.03 | 44 | 47.7%21 W · 23 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc064…6fa8backed Under | 56c | 89.29$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 181 | 51.9%94 W · 87 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f3d…95b1backed Over | 37c | 81.08$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.08 | 286 | 39.2%112 W · 174 L | +11.5wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed Under | 63c | 81.08$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.08 | 1,206 | 53.7%648 W · 558 L | +29.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Under | 50c | 76.92$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.46 | 1,725 | 50.1%864 W · 861 L | -4.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fc…b24ebacked Under | 40c | 70$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 473 | 45.7%216 W · 257 L | +2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 78c | 60$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.75 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2249…3005backed Under | 76c | 39.47$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.29per pick | 69cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x212b…0ba5backed Under | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 536 | 55.8%299 W · 237 L | +22.6wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc9db…6789backed Over | 75c | 33.19$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.46 | 267 | 62.2%166 W · 101 L | +43.9wins | +0.16per pick | 46cpaid | +58%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xcbcb…65fcbacked Under | 63c | 33.04$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.82 | 118 | 52.5%62 W · 56 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 60c | 30.8$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.49 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56b4…11adbacked Over | 60c | 29.98$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.99 | 171 | 48%82 W · 89 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6cdf…58e1backed Under | 53c | 28.3$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 462 | 55.8%258 W · 204 L | +21.3wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x23df…640abacked Over | 51c | 28.02$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.61 | 400 | 48.5%194 W · 206 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85c3…700cbacked Over | 52c | 25.6$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.29 | 904 | 46.9%424 W · 480 L | +13.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5974…5c32backed Under | 67c | 23.13$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 59 | 59.3%35 W · 24 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e4d…1cb0backed Over | 67c | 17.46$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.76 | 639 | 54.5%348 W · 291 L | +14.8wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- New York Mets vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 9.5this page
- New York Mets vs. Cleveland GuardiansNew York Mets won
- New York Mets vs. Cleveland Guardians: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Over won
- New York Mets vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 6.5Over won
- New York Mets vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 7.5Over won
- New York Mets vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 8.5Over won
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-1.5)New York Mets won
- Spread: New York Mets (-1.5)Cleveland Guardians won
- Spread: New York Mets (-2.5)Cleveland Guardians won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: New York Mets vs. Cleveland GuardiansNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.