MLB · resolved market
Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4d542491118171e28b332029e49cff8a5369f1f148a925c7756e6e4052662138
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Arizona Diamondbacksof Arizona Diamondbacks, San Francisco Giants
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,239
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,243
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,239 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 29c | 6,353$1,835 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,518.51 | 12,328 | 46.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L | -66.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed San Francisco Giants | 75c | 5,321$3,979 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,978.56 | 10,979 | 51.6%5,660 W · 5,319 L | +139.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4379…2e16backed San Francisco Giants | 63c | 3,000$1,890 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,890 | 779 | 51.1%398 W · 381 L | +6.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 37c | 2,064$764 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,300.7 | 4,515 | 48.8%2,205 W · 2,310 L | -46.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed San Francisco Giants | 79c | 518.26$408 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$408.04 | 8,403 | 47.9%4,022 W · 4,381 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 35c | 373.68$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$242.89 | 6,999 | 50.6%3,538 W · 3,461 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked San Francisco Giants | 63c | 319.99$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.59 | 1,769 | 51.6%912 W · 857 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed San Francisco Giants | 59c | 213.71$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.09 | 8,594 | 52.6%4,521 W · 4,073 L | +508.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa623…a4febacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 23c | 209$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.93 | 1,119 | 45.5%509 W · 610 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d61…26e5backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 37c | 153.53$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.72 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +2.8wins | +0.22per pick | 48cpaid | +59.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1719…ec68backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 37c | 86$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.18 | 721 | 54.2%391 W · 330 L | +20.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +144.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d5f…1171backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 27c | 61.07$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.33 | 582 | 54.3%316 W · 266 L | +16.5wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc23…a9f2backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 37c | 50$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.5 | 468 | 54.5%255 W · 213 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0905…e5c0backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 36c | 49.99$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 1,661 | 43.5%722 W · 939 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x96c1…2c59backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 35c | 49.96$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.48 | 1,498 | 45.3%678 W · 820 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked San Francisco Giants | 63c | 45.54$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.69 | 1,845 | 50.7%936 W · 909 L | -4.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b85…b31bbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 46c | 43.81$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.81 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -1.5wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc718…64a8backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 37c | 39.96$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.19 | 1,083 | 56.3%610 W · 473 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e73…3f4ebacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 42c | 31.46$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.09 | 325 | 50.5%164 W · 161 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce5f…ab17backed San Francisco Giants | 48c | 28.81$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.81 | 353 | 41.1%145 W · 208 L | -16.7wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked San Francisco Giants | 76c | 22.93$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.43 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked San Francisco Giants | 52c | 22.09$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.59 | 5,812 | 43.7%2,541 W · 3,271 L | -188.1wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-1.5)this page
- San Francisco Giants vs. Arizona DiamondbacksArizona Diamondbacks won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 10.5Under won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 11.5Under won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 5.5Over won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 6.5Over won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 7.5Over won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 8.5Under won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-2.5)San Francisco Giants won
- Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-3.5)San Francisco Giants won
- Spread: San Francisco Giants (-1.5)Arizona Diamondbacks won
- Spread: San Francisco Giants (-2.5)Arizona Diamondbacks won
- Spread: San Francisco Giants (-3.5)Arizona Diamondbacks won
- Spread: San Francisco Giants (-4.5)Arizona Diamondbacks won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: San Francisco Giants vs. Arizona DiamondbacksYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.