MLB · resolved market
San Francisco Giants vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x08208c43b53ac27fa20bd51caff57bf84ab5e8ebd6c96a1419160865958228fd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,767
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,137
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,767 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 67c | 1,431$960 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$470.08 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Under | 51c | 1,041$531 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$510.3 | 1,909 | 53.5%1,021 W · 888 L | +29.1wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 26c | 947.12$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.22 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 50c | 785$392 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$392.2 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Over | 49c | 735$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$360.15 | 1,284 | 49.5%635 W · 649 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x914a…920fbacked Over | 50c | 500$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 49 | 59.2%29 W · 20 L | +4.3wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0dad…4855backed Under | 50c | 500$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250 | 210 | 52.9%111 W · 99 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96d9…18a0backed Over | 49c | 500$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245 | 224 | 48.7%109 W · 115 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 49c | 432.16$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.76 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x068c…582ebacked Under | 51c | 392.16$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.16 | 384 | 55.2%212 W · 172 L | +9.9wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb2e…cc6bbacked Under | 51c | 392.16$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.16 | 63 | 60.3%38 W · 25 L | +5.5wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdc0d…8bcabacked Under | 52c | 251.51$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.51 | 193 | 48.7%94 W · 99 L | +15.6wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +16%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Over | 59c | 238$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.42 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb0b…62cdbacked Under | 51c | 235.29$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.29 | 795 | 43%342 W · 453 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 66c | 202$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.32 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Over | 49c | 192.93$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.54 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Under | 34c | 190.88$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.98 | 996 | 24.6%245 W · 751 L | -70.1wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 41c | 177.56$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.26 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed Over | 69c | 147.94$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.08 | 2,243 | 57.6%1,293 W · 950 L | +37.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 49c | 125$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.25 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 41c | 100.2$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.27 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3d…316cbacked Over | 49c | 72$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.28 | 722 | 47.6%344 W · 378 L | -12.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x602d…3534backed Over | 52c | 67.5$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.1 | 88 | 48.9%43 W · 45 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb25…eb12backed Under | 57c | 63.39$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.26 | 575 | 48%276 W · 299 L | -17.0wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 63c | 61.35$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.65 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Under | 31c | 58.65$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.47 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Under | 50c | 56.37$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.19 | 1,769 | 51.6%912 W · 857 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x976a…e8ecbacked Under | 31c | 54.84$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.84 | 1,014 | 50.4%511 W · 503 L | +52.0wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x96c1…2c59backed Over | 49c | 49.99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 1,498 | 45.3%678 W · 820 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Over | 50c | 49.37$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.69 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbaf9…3a59backed Under | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 165 | 44.8%74 W · 91 L | -6.7wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 35c | 38.98$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.26 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Under | 50c | 32.52$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.3 | 2,293 | 48.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L | -24.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2528…b77dbacked Over | 76c | 31$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.56 | 1,630 | 55.2%899 W · 731 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3563…a0a2backed Over | 67c | 29.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.86 | 2,223 | 55.4%1,231 W · 992 L | +73.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb551…a2f3backed Under | 51c | 28.24$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.84 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +2.7wins | +0.17per pick | 52cpaid | +40.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Under | 47c | 23.47$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.53 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51eb…6bfabacked Under | 51c | 20.43$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.01 | 704 | 55%387 W · 317 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b8d…bb92backed Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 586 | 52.7%309 W · 277 L | +14.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x89ab…89acbacked Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 78 | 56.4%44 W · 34 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- San Francisco Giants vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 8.5this page
- San Francisco Giants vs. Arizona DiamondbacksArizona Diamondbacks won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 10.5Under won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 11.5Under won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 5.5Over won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 6.5Over won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 7.5Over won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-1.5)Arizona Diamondbacks won
- Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-2.5)San Francisco Giants won
- Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-3.5)San Francisco Giants won
- Spread: San Francisco Giants (-1.5)Arizona Diamondbacks won
- Spread: San Francisco Giants (-2.5)Arizona Diamondbacks won
- Spread: San Francisco Giants (-3.5)Arizona Diamondbacks won
- Spread: San Francisco Giants (-4.5)Arizona Diamondbacks won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: San Francisco Giants vs. Arizona DiamondbacksYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.