MLB · resolved market
Spread: San Francisco Giants (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2da9b9bb267376f9e226a487264a4e7f0e0fd6e7b4b7747b7f5ad4bf75b1c220
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Arizona Diamondbacksof San Francisco Giants, Arizona Diamondbacks
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,775
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,088
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,775 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 38c | 2,586$992 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,594.31 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7634…600dbacked San Francisco Giants | 52c | 2,000$1,040 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,039.74 | 603 | 50.1%302 W · 301 L | -10.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed San Francisco Giants | 68c | 1,794$1,217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,216.88 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa66d…6daabacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 66c | 1,205$800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$405.06 | 211 | 47.9%101 W · 110 L | -5.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed San Francisco Giants | 42c | 917.22$387 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$387.14 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 48c | 499.75$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$259.37 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x949e…20afbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 37c | 270.27$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.27 | 228 | 31.6%72 W · 156 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | +9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd52c…6c59backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 39c | 256.41$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.41 | 293 | 31.7%93 W · 200 L | -11.7wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed San Francisco Giants | 33c | 203$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.99 | 2,296 | 49.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L | +37.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed San Francisco Giants | 68c | 162.8$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.72 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x948b…a188backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 48c | 150.48$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.25 | 946 | 48.9%463 W · 483 L | +4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f17…b55dbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 70c | 112.31$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.6 | 29 | 86.2%25 W · 4 L | +8.3wins | +0.29per pick | 58cpaid | +78.5%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xf213…a627backed San Francisco Giants | 36c | 99.99$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 689 | 42.2%291 W · 398 L | +18.7wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked San Francisco Giants | 36c | 83$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.88 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 64c | 59.28$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.34 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 48c | 56.46$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.46 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb25…eb12backed San Francisco Giants | 66c | 54.74$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.13 | 575 | 48%276 W · 299 L | -17.0wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x70fc…ab12backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 43c | 54.48$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.04 | 1,367 | 54.3%742 W · 625 L | +16.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x976a…e8ecbacked San Francisco Giants | 23c | 53.22$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.24 | 1,014 | 50.4%511 W · 503 L | +52.0wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x96c1…2c59backed San Francisco Giants | 35c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 1,498 | 45.3%678 W · 820 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0905…e5c0backed San Francisco Giants | 35c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 1,661 | 43.5%722 W · 939 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc263…1e83backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 27c | 49.89$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.42 | 446 | 48.7%217 W · 229 L | -10.4wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9dfd…aadebacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 44c | 46.25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.9 | 74 | 52.7%39 W · 35 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 45c | 40.87$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.48 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3563…a0a2backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 55c | 36.01$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.21 | 2,223 | 55.4%1,231 W · 992 L | +73.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9da…7bb5backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 37c | 35.33$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.42 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1831…6c99backed San Francisco Giants | 80c | 35$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.9 | 475 | 89.1%423 W · 52 L | +84.9wins | +0.18per pick | 71cpaid | +25%equal weight | 69+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 64c | 30.96$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.15 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed San Francisco Giants | 49c | 25.68$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.53 | 2,293 | 48.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L | -24.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: San Francisco Giants (-1.5)this page
- San Francisco Giants vs. Arizona DiamondbacksArizona Diamondbacks won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 10.5Under won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 11.5Under won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 5.5Over won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 6.5Over won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 7.5Over won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 8.5Under won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-1.5)Arizona Diamondbacks won
- Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-2.5)San Francisco Giants won
- Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-3.5)San Francisco Giants won
- Spread: San Francisco Giants (-2.5)Arizona Diamondbacks won
- Spread: San Francisco Giants (-3.5)Arizona Diamondbacks won
- Spread: San Francisco Giants (-4.5)Arizona Diamondbacks won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: San Francisco Giants vs. Arizona DiamondbacksYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.