MLB · resolved market
San Francisco Giants vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 7.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x60923b670712e62537383888886df08284dec56d33641e01f9c0da6915a253f3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,080
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,498
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,080 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1a82…30aebacked Under | 4c | 3,000$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.31per pick | 36cpaid | +31.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde3c…6ea6backed Under | 4c | 1,846$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.38 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.33per pick | 17cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 62c | 1,690$1,048 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,047.78 | 12,328 | 46.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L | -66.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f9f…a024backed Under | 5c | 1,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.15per pick | 10cpaid | +19%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a92…8586backed Under | 4c | 699.98$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +2.5wins | +0.36per pick | 7cpaid | +563.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x80aa…e8eabacked Under | 4c | 661.09$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.18per pick | 11cpaid | +93.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5005…23febacked Under | 2c | 533.33$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Over | 40c | 447.98$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$269.83 | 2,293 | 48.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L | -24.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Under | 42c | 383.74$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.17 | 6,128 | 55.4%3,394 W · 2,734 L | +347.5wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xde56…c2f9backed Under | 41c | 243.9$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 304 | 52%158 W · 146 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 38c | 157.81$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.8 | 8,451 | 47.9%4,048 W · 4,403 L | +81.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6383…6e28backed Over | 65c | 152.6$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.41 | 800 | 55.8%446 W · 354 L | +22.6wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Under | 42c | 152.43$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.02 | 494 | 50%247 W · 247 L | +9.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Over | 29c | 150.29$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.24 | 1,003 | 24.7%248 W · 755 L | -70.1wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6804…29e2backed Under | 43c | 145.83$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.71 | 1,379 | 50.6%698 W · 681 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 58c | 125$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.5 | 9,862 | 46.4%4,579 W · 5,283 L | +40.2wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Under | 43c | 123.29$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.01 | 2,593 | 61.5%1,595 W · 998 L | +73.8wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0828…d60abacked Over | 33c | 106.06$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.06 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.19per pick | 36cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xce9d…3c05backed Under | 57c | 105.26$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 191 | 53.9%103 W · 88 L | -6.6wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x948b…a188backed Under | 61c | 100.49$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.3 | 946 | 48.9%463 W · 483 L | +4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2528…b77dbacked Under | 48c | 60$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.8 | 1,630 | 55.2%899 W · 731 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa163…b6bebacked Over | 51c | 58.82$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.82 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.27per pick | 48cpaid | +59.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7268…78abbacked Over | 26c | 51.69$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.25 | 200 | 40%80 W · 120 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 33c | 51.27$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.1 | 5,172 | 54.6%2,824 W · 2,348 L | +227.9wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdb25…eb12backed Under | 42c | 42.25$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.88 | 575 | 48%276 W · 299 L | -17.0wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a7…e5d4backed Over | 68c | 35.65$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.48 | 328 | 57.9%190 W · 138 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0954…012abacked Over | 59c | 33.9$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.9 | 1,197 | 53.9%645 W · 552 L | +42.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Under | 41c | 33.9$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.9 | 1,849 | 50.7%937 W · 912 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed Over | 58c | 32.95$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.84 | 2,243 | 57.6%1,293 W · 950 L | +37.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 57c | 32.09$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.79 | 11,054 | 51.5%5,694 W · 5,360 L | +137.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec45…6c6dbacked Under | 64c | 25.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.64 | 170 | 58.2%99 W · 71 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3563…a0a2backed Over | 67c | 24.06$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.98 | 2,223 | 55.4%1,231 W · 992 L | +73.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Under | 46c | 23.02$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.59 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Under | 53c | 21$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.16 | 6,309 | 48.2%3,044 W · 3,265 L | +181.6wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6762…a9a5backed Under | 57c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 268 | 53.4%143 W · 125 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4def…06e6backed Over | 54c | 18.69$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- San Francisco Giants vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 7.5this page
- San Francisco Giants vs. Arizona DiamondbacksArizona Diamondbacks won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 10.5Under won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 11.5Under won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 5.5Over won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 6.5Over won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 8.5Under won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-1.5)Arizona Diamondbacks won
- Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-2.5)San Francisco Giants won
- Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-3.5)San Francisco Giants won
- Spread: San Francisco Giants (-1.5)Arizona Diamondbacks won
- Spread: San Francisco Giants (-2.5)Arizona Diamondbacks won
- Spread: San Francisco Giants (-3.5)Arizona Diamondbacks won
- Spread: San Francisco Giants (-4.5)Arizona Diamondbacks won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: San Francisco Giants vs. Arizona DiamondbacksYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.