Olympics · resolved market
Men's Group B - Italy vs. Slovakia
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4d659194b9bc2d196c811cb5392100c37ab3e266172ce32106dcfb497911a82f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Slovakiaof Italy, Slovakia
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Olympicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $285,997
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $345,811
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $285,997 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 61 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Olympics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Olympics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Italy | 7c | 55,000$4,100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,099.98 | 36 | 16.7%6 W · 30 L | -3.2wins | -0.09per pick | 26cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6f3e…bcf8backed Italy | 7c | 35,000$2,450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,450 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa0b…9672backed Italy | 4c | 25,305$919 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$919.21 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -1.9wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x336b…1233backed Italy | 7c | 8,106$567 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$567.45 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +1.4wins | +0.12per pick | 22cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Italy | 1c | 5,583$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.19 | 244 | 8.2%20 W · 224 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -61.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ab3…12b2backed Italy | 8c | 4,851$388 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$388.12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Italy | 8c | 4,845$383 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$383.39 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -2.4wins | -0.20per pick | 28cpaid | -89.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5375…aeeabacked Italy | 9c | 4,679$404 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$403.57 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -2.2wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -55.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x632a…ac85backed Italy | 8c | 4,356$349 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$348.52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Italy | 9c | 3,919$349 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$348.53 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -2.0wins | -0.25per pick | 37cpaid | -82.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6bb3…758ebacked Italy | 7c | 3,766$264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$263.62 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3cc7…cdf9backed Italy | 8c | 3,000$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf4a4…3117backed Italy | 1c | 2,709$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -82.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d94…017dbacked Italy | 7c | 1,993$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.31 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefc9…b337backed Italy | 9c | 1,403$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.31 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 30cpaid | -56.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed Italy | 8c | 1,249$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.89 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked Italy | 7c | 1,000$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 70 | 35.7%25 W · 45 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x56c2…17bfbacked Italy | 7c | 999.99$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | +1.3wins | +0.08per pick | 16cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe201…6d5cbacked Italy | 10c | 800$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -50.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3613…79e1backed Italy | 5c | 800$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 38 | 18.4%7 W · 31 L | -6.1wins | -0.16per pick | 34cpaid | -68.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1968…2261backed Italy | 6c | 765$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.85 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -70.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7bc3…d183backed Italy | 7c | 720$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.4 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.18per pick | 32cpaid | -79.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe5cf…7b4cbacked Italy | 8c | 712.37$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8590…f9c6backed Italy | 8c | 643.99$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.08 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2f9a…7ef9backed Italy | 8c | 625$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +2.1wins | +0.24per pick | 32cpaid | +65.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbf14…5d95backed Italy | 3c | 598.04$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.44 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.17per pick | 16cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x86c8…c867backed Italy | 5c | 550$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 33cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb68…a240backed Italy | 9c | 534.01$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e7d…4a9bbacked Italy | 8c | 500$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | +1.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Italy | 9c | 496.43$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.71 | 63 | 0%0 W · 63 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ed…de73backed Italy | 7c | 470.28$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.37 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Italy | 8c | 460.86$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.87 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6e3…6dfebacked Italy | 8c | 405.88$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.47 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f60…5d1dbacked Italy | 5c | 380$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed Italy | 9c | 371.95$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.98 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8666…a368backed Italy | 7c | 360$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 24 | 20.8%5 W · 19 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7705…a442backed Italy | 4c | 300$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 28 | 25%7 W · 21 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9204…7bd5backed Italy | 7c | 299.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e70…4af9backed Italy | 5c | 294.12$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -1.4wins | -0.11per pick | 34cpaid | -56.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa224…8c93backed Italy | 7c | 285.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ca5…b91cbacked Italy | 8c | 250$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | -61.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ec…5a3dbacked Italy | 8c | 250$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Italy | 9c | 246$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.83 | 27 | 25.9%7 W · 20 L | -4.9wins | -0.18per pick | 44cpaid | -62.8%equal weight | 39-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5a50…ea80backed Italy | 8c | 242$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.36 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 20cpaid | -70%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Italy | 9c | 238.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.15 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | -1.8wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc23c…861cbacked Italy | 9c | 222.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a31…9d80backed Italy | 6c | 219.44$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Italy | 9c | 200$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 28 | 25%7 W · 21 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6671…373dbacked Italy | 9c | 200$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x70a8…7070backed Italy | 9c | 200$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…8ba0backed Italy | 11c | 200$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x78d2…7a2bbacked Italy | 6c | 185.78$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.34 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc371…1e28backed Italy | 9c | 176$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.97 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -1.5wins | -0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea9e…d3fbbacked Italy | 8c | 149.97$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.10per pick | 19cpaid | -64.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x06b0…afd6backed Italy | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x56f7…4de1backed Italy | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 26cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ba7…67f8backed Italy | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb48c…ab11backed Italy | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 22cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21c2…6749backed Italy | 12c | 119$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.33 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cee…41a8backed Italy | 12c | 92.33$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.08 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x617f…cde5backed Italy | 13c | 80$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Olympics and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.