Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 10°C on March 26?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4d6a21e4adfaf57da58956ea8091bc736061f845d1956c6cabebdfcd1748b9dd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $38,437
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $39,105
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $38,437 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 59 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1c0f…99d0backed Yes | 19c | 1,501$285 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,215.34 | 864 | 20.1%174 W · 690 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 11c | 1,265$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.44 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 53c | 1,152$607 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$544.97 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x09a8…47c1backed Yes | 69c | 1,140$792 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$347.75 | 418 | 45.2%189 W · 229 L | +14.7wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe752…2200backed Yes | 9c | 1,064$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$972.56 | 1,204 | 25.3%305 W · 899 L | +18.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x094e…a709backed Yes | 77c | 927.24$717 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210.66 | 92 | 60.9%56 W · 36 L | +5.6wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 55c | 909.09$496 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$496.39 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba3a…e041backed Yes | 18c | 629.87$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$517.62 | 99 | 27.3%27 W · 72 L | -8.9wins | -0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0b25…56aabacked No | 14c | 481.43$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.09 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed Yes | 4c | 473.99$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$452.93 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf14…5d95backed No | 11c | 435.4$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.2 | 346 | 17.9%62 W · 284 L | +14.8wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 61c | 391.67$239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$238.93 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 4c | 387.06$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$371.55 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb70d…43f4backed Yes | 31c | 324.95$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224.26 | 173 | 58.4%101 W · 72 L | +14.3wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +56.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked No | 13c | 312.56$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.27 | 564 | 24.5%138 W · 426 L | -18.3wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc33…9636backed Yes | 8c | 311.97$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$287.01 | 125 | 40%50 W · 75 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd59e…75adbacked Yes | 8c | 226$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207.86 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.11per pick | 6cpaid | +107.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 30c | 214.6$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.01 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc0da…4162backed Yes | 74c | 204.1$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.71 | 149 | 53.7%80 W · 69 L | +9.2wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5644…ecbbbacked Yes | 33c | 180.81$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121 | 237 | 38%90 W · 147 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8781…88c0backed Yes | 23c | 170.56$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.87 | 325 | 48.6%158 W · 167 L | +11.8wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xafaf…572dbacked Yes | 25c | 169.53$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.53 | 39 | 46.2%18 W · 21 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6580…6fa8backed No | 63c | 164.71$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.43 | 76 | 28.9%22 W · 54 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1f8…2734backed Yes | 9c | 164.45$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.31 | 313 | 41.5%130 W · 183 L | +18.3wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 44c | 158.86$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.77 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xc921…d6f3backed No | 10c | 150$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.47 | 153 | 39.9%61 W · 92 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x129c…0085backed Yes | 34c | 146.32$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.32 | 52 | 51.9%27 W · 25 L | +3.3wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8713…bfd5backed Yes | 13c | 121.02$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.11 | 50 | 58%29 W · 21 L | +3.5wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0b90…08e7backed Yes | 59c | 112.67$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.75 | 135 | 54.8%74 W · 61 L | -6.9wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf4b1…ab63backed No | 73c | 105.71$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77 | 385 | 47.5%183 W · 202 L | +16.9wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe48b…fdc2backed Yes | 15c | 104.31$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.62 | 619 | 29.1%180 W · 439 L | +21.8wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 65c | 100.01$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.35 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7233…ff3ebacked Yes | 43c | 100$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57 | 53 | 26.4%14 W · 39 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x354d…eb8fbacked Yes | 17c | 100$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.9 | 701 | 33.5%235 W · 466 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe871…b19bbacked No | 72c | 88.36$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.72 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.35per pick | 60cpaid | -68.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x15ce…d5fabacked Yes | 73c | 58.85$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.76 | 483 | 31.3%151 W · 332 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +90.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8267…f7b7backed No | 52c | 56.73$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.73 | 116 | 56.9%66 W · 50 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed Yes | 57c | 55.78$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.15 | 1,011 | 61.2%619 W · 392 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebb1…e7afbacked No | 68c | 52.88$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.01 | 575 | 45%259 W · 316 L | +26.6wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +13%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6926…ce5dbacked No | 69c | 51.06$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.32 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -46.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x59fe…14fdbacked No | 38c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.19 | 572 | 32.9%188 W · 384 L | -104.6wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 31-0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x5aad…dc28backed Yes | 33c | 50$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.33 | 676 | 33.7%228 W · 448 L | +33.8wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe744…67a8backed No | 72c | 44.45$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.88 | 154 | 77.9%120 W · 34 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 75cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7943…27a1backed Yes | 30c | 42.96$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 320 | 44.7%143 W · 177 L | +9.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked No | 66c | 42.71$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.99 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x46f7…c856backed Yes | 71c | 42.26$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.26 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 63cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed Yes | 43c | 37.54$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.53 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xa1cd…aecdbacked No | 69c | 35.02$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.17 | 85 | 61.2%52 W · 33 L | +6.1wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +32.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2cb6…2ff6backed No | 69c | 31.58$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.64 | 99 | 43.4%43 W · 56 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed Yes | 35c | 31.27$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.45 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 40c | 30.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.51 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85d2…7479backed No | 73c | 30$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.93 | 532 | 58.6%312 W · 220 L | +45.1wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3f…f038backed No | 38c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.33 | 661 | 41.8%276 W · 385 L | -12.8wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x44c9…d3b7backed Yes | 43c | 25.36$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.41 | 35 | 60%21 W · 14 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x298e…107ebacked No | 73c | 21.67$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.74 | 261 | 69.3%181 W · 80 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1de8…0e79backed No | 71c | 20.62$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.66 | 99 | 80.8%80 W · 19 L | +4.6wins | +0.05per pick | 76cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfff1…12e4backed No | 54c | 18.6$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 45 | 35.6%16 W · 29 L | -5.2wins | -0.12per pick | 47cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbfe8…6d0abacked No | 54c | 18.6$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 37 | 51.4%19 W · 18 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 10°C on March 26?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 11°C on March 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 12°C on March 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 13°C on March 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 14°C on March 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 15°C on March 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 16°C on March 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 8°C or below on March 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 9°C on March 26?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.