Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 11°C on March 26?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3da94fab4900ed6b0e149d2c45a9fdbac4e805bd49cfde764d23e3bb8fae1ccf
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $31,843
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $31,477
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $31,843 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 67 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6580…6fa8backed Yes | 15c | 1,399$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.93 | 76 | 28.9%22 W · 54 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c0f…99d0backed Yes | 15c | 1,345$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.97 | 864 | 20.1%174 W · 690 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 29c | 1,110$325 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$325.22 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e6e…cfe9backed Yes | 3c | 972.99$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.92 | 36 | 38.9%14 W · 22 L | -3.2wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xba3a…e041backed Yes | 31c | 599.99$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.92 | 99 | 27.3%27 W · 72 L | -8.9wins | -0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x09a8…47c1backed Yes | 9c | 538.28$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.42 | 418 | 45.2%189 W · 229 L | +14.7wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 12c | 451.82$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.55 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabfb…12e5backed Yes | 14c | 405.26$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.88 | 328 | 18.3%60 W · 268 L | +15.8wins | +0.05per pick | 13cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 75c | 385.77$290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.1 | 583 | 49.4%288 W · 295 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe472…4360backed Yes | 9c | 382.43$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.16 | 53 | 28.3%15 W · 38 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6850…d921backed Yes | 8c | 358.19$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.66 | 81 | 11.1%9 W · 72 L | -4.5wins | -0.06per pick | 17cpaid | -56.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 76c | 347.38$263 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.63 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed Yes | 11c | 322.2$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.27 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe752…2200backed Yes | 27c | 300$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82 | 1,204 | 25.3%305 W · 899 L | +18.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 10c | 296.11$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.54 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 9c | 279.53$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.12 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc33…9636backed Yes | 9c | 277.94$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.01 | 125 | 40%50 W · 75 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed Yes | 5c | 275$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.75 | 621 | 9.8%61 W · 560 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x574c…8a65backed Yes | 8c | 260.96$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 29 | 24.1%7 W · 22 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 11c | 225.32$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.36 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 65c | 224.07$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.15 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf641…2b4abacked Yes | 7c | 220$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.4 | 149 | 15.4%23 W · 126 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x92f4…63d9backed Yes | 7c | 186.78$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.75 | 81 | 30.9%25 W · 56 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x306e…3a7cbacked Yes | 58c | 183.5$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.23 | 40 | 37.5%15 W · 25 L | -3.0wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9d07…6bf3backed Yes | 8c | 180$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.72 | 196 | 17.9%35 W · 161 L | +10.6wins | +0.05per pick | 12cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa895…faacbacked Yes | 11c | 177.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.25 | 203 | 38.4%78 W · 125 L | +30.4wins | +0.15per pick | 23cpaid | +177%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x879d…b501backed Yes | 9c | 177.39$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.67 | 605 | 19.7%119 W · 486 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed Yes | 7c | 175$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.83 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x87d9…5f20backed Yes | 9c | 173.17$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.59 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x354d…eb8fbacked Yes | 14c | 140.27$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.75 | 701 | 33.5%235 W · 466 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcaca…a0b6backed Yes | 54c | 138.88$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 296 | 53.4%158 W · 138 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff74…5de4backed Yes | 8c | 133.71$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.12 | 659 | 34.1%225 W · 434 L | +36.6wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 12c | 130.19$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.97 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xf2e5…f172backed Yes | 26c | 123.64$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.26 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -2.7wins | -0.17per pick | 54cpaid | -47.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8713…bfd5backed Yes | 23c | 114.73$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.84 | 50 | 58%29 W · 21 L | +3.5wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6372…4a25backed No | 74c | 101.42$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.42 | 410 | 70.5%289 W · 121 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7233…ff3ebacked Yes | 48c | 100$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 53 | 26.4%14 W · 39 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc393…66f9backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.34 | 129 | 32.6%42 W · 87 L | -8.9wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb199…36e6backed No | 57c | 94.69$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.85 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…4e57backed Yes | 45c | 78.1$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.41 | 45 | 51.1%23 W · 22 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed No | 52c | 78.09$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.79 | 981 | 60.6%594 W · 387 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde9c…e014backed Yes | 17c | 75.38$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.69 | 258 | 39.9%103 W · 155 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked Yes | 37c | 68.8$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.32 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbbc2…e280backed No | 74c | 67.86$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.86 | 20 | 70%14 W · 6 L | +1.8wins | +0.09per pick | 61cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 74c | 65.13$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.92 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes | 21c | 62.38$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.93 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac16…4f44backed No | 54c | 57.18$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.3 | 230 | 35.7%82 W · 148 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x505e…affcbacked Yes | 51c | 55$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.05 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed Yes | 21c | 54.58$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.48 | 1,026 | 64%657 W · 369 L | +49.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb1f8…2734backed Yes | 41c | 54.17$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.02 | 313 | 41.5%130 W · 183 L | +18.3wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8267…f7b7backed No | 57c | 53.01$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.01 | 116 | 56.9%66 W · 50 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe058…cf72backed Yes | 55c | 50$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2cb6…2ff6backed No | 56c | 43.66$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.16 | 99 | 43.4%43 W · 56 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7943…27a1backed Yes | 52c | 43.03$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.57 | 320 | 44.7%143 W · 177 L | +9.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe48b…fdc2backed No | 63c | 41.65$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.35 | 619 | 29.1%180 W · 439 L | +21.8wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc921…d6f3backed No | 39c | 37$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.57 | 153 | 39.9%61 W · 92 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 40c | 31$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.49 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46d3…2c20backed Yes | 41c | 26$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.59 | 166 | 27.7%46 W · 120 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9d5…9f2abacked Yes | 50c | 25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 86 | 50%43 W · 43 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc498…8ba5backed Yes | 54c | 24.18$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 424 | 38.9%165 W · 259 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfff1…12e4backed No | 48c | 21.05$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.95 | 45 | 35.6%16 W · 29 L | -5.2wins | -0.12per pick | 47cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe744…67a8backed No | 79c | 20.25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.25 | 154 | 77.9%120 W · 34 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 75cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7638…b72dbacked Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3f…f038backed No | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 661 | 41.8%276 W · 385 L | -12.8wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc0da…4162backed No | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 149 | 53.7%80 W · 69 L | +9.2wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3d7e…ad97backed No | 56c | 19.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 119 | 56.3%67 W · 52 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x920d…af4bbacked No | 70c | 16.05$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.81 | 199 | 70.4%140 W · 59 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 70cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 11°C on March 26?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 10°C on March 26?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 12°C on March 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 13°C on March 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 14°C on March 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 15°C on March 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 16°C on March 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 8°C or below on March 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 9°C on March 26?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.