TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 12°C on March 26?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$20,777
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$18,005

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,777 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 93 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x6580…6fa8backed Yes28c1,447$408 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$407.897628.9%22 W · 54 L-2.5wins-0.03per pick32cpaid-4.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes8c1,075$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.986,78739.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L+256.4wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-20.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4ce3…4291backed Yes3c870.83$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.322,16523.8%516 W · 1,649 L+83.8wins+0.04per pick20cpaid+14.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1c0f…99d0backed Yes9c601.59$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.9686420.1%174 W · 690 L+14.2wins+0.02per pick18cpaid-25.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x09a8…47c1backed Yes30c482.15$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$145.0541845.2%189 W · 229 L+14.7wins+0.04per pick42cpaid-1.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xfbb7…6f27backed Yes3c399.99$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$126004.2%25 W · 575 L+0.4wins0.00per pick4cpaid-2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa895…faacbacked Yes4c335$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.420338.4%78 W · 125 L+30.4wins+0.15per pick23cpaid+177%equal weight65+0.13 edge/pick
0x579a…9908backed No60c282.92$170 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$112.7112154.5%66 W · 55 L+1.8wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed Yes12c241.5$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.298,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x906f…371abacked No72c223.68$161 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.822,49569.9%1,744 W · 751 L+80.3wins+0.03per pick67cpaid+5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes8c214.13$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.691,54416.3%252 W · 1,292 L+21.9wins+0.01per pick15cpaid+10.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe59d…0822backed Yes33c210.24$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.61546.7%7 W · 8 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-6.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdcd2…87c9backed No68c210.2$142 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.2411344.2%50 W · 63 L-4.2wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-10.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No69c193.24$133 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.95,89749.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L-103.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1e6e…cfe9backed Yes36c191.2$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.53638.9%14 W · 22 L-3.2wins-0.09per pick48cpaid-35.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes24c187.47$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.4417,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x306e…3a7cbacked Yes31c183.43$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.134037.5%15 W · 25 L-3.0wins-0.07per pick45cpaid-26.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xc73d…565abacked Yes32c161.55$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.55139.2%20 W · 31 L-2.0wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-11.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x354d…eb8fbacked Yes34c150.12$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.6570133.5%235 W · 466 L+13.4wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+7.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6316…e220backed Yes33c133.09$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.9210%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc7d0…4e57backed No70c133$94 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.54551.1%23 W · 22 L-2.1wins-0.05per pick56cpaid-17.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8713…bfd5backed Yes37c120.74$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$455058%29 W · 21 L+3.5wins+0.07per pick51cpaid+11.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3334…b05ebacked Yes26c119.01$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$311030%3 W · 7 L-1.2wins-0.12per pick42cpaid-24.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes19c115.35$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.057,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7b83…0a52backed Yes41c115.29$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.15540%2 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-26.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xebb1…e7afbacked Yes11c114.61$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.3457545%259 W · 316 L+26.6wins+0.05per pick40cpaid+13%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xbdf6…c61bbacked Yes47c106.03$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5060851.2%311 W · 297 L-24.0wins-0.04per pick55cpaid-7.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8208…a737backed No74c103.39$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.0222675.7%171 W · 55 L+9.0wins+0.04per pick72cpaid+6.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6ef3…f1c5backed Yes33c102$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.0632444.4%144 W · 180 L-10.1wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7233…ff3ebacked Yes15c100$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$155326.4%14 W · 39 L-2.8wins-0.05per pick32cpaid-13.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7e80…631bbacked No66c100$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$341,99152.3%1,042 W · 949 L-76.1wins-0.04per pick56cpaid-12.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd8f4…c82cbacked No75c100$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$257860.3%47 W · 31 L+2.3wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+2.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc393…66f9backed Yes28c100$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.1812932.6%42 W · 87 L-8.9wins-0.07per pick39cpaid-19.8%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xe48b…fdc2backed Yes27c99.99$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2761929.1%180 W · 439 L+21.8wins+0.04per pick26cpaid+0.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xae47…638dbacked No74c90.73$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.9752571.2%374 W · 151 L+4.7wins+0.01per pick70cpaid+0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8f34…2f50backed No65c89.17$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.594,12060.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbc0f…18b4backed Yes43c83.05$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.712832.1%9 W · 19 L-4.7wins-0.17per pick49cpaid-41.3%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x0c36…e462backed Yes25c82.92$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.731338.5%5 W · 8 L0.0wins0.00per pick39cpaid-14.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5368…2d62backed Yes16c76.81$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.561,80427.4%494 W · 1,310 L+27.6wins+0.02per pick26cpaid+14.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x65c4…7ea4backed Yes32c75.82$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2455942.6%238 W · 321 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick42cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes25c73.31$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.339,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe752…2200backed Yes31c72.03$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.331,20425.3%305 W · 899 L+18.2wins+0.02per pick24cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe0eb…a7d8backed No76c65.79$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.795874.1%43 W · 15 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick72cpaid+2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x77f0…2b1fbacked Yes24c63.67$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.273,02849.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L+16.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+10.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xac16…4f44backed Yes17c60$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.223035.7%82 W · 148 L+4.3wins+0.02per pick34cpaid+4.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb432…2bbfbacked Yes34c58$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.72850%4 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-19.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2ac0…071ebacked No69c57.97$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.973271.9%23 W · 9 L+5.6wins+0.17per pick54cpaid+29.9%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x43b1…aba6backed Yes26c56.23$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.7377428.6%221 W · 553 L-5.5wins-0.01per pick29cpaid-24.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No68c55.7$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.8812,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9770…d57dbacked No72c54.98$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.4448672%350 W · 136 L+9.4wins+0.02per pick70cpaid+1.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb20e…58cebacked No73c54.42$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.422286.4%19 W · 3 L+3.2wins+0.15per pick72cpaid+19.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x71af…6b3dbacked Yes48c52.16$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.043560%21 W · 14 L+2.8wins+0.08per pick52cpaid+9.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8444…1cf9backed Yes41c50$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.528737.6%108 W · 179 L-13.6wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-15.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb608…881ebacked Yes41c50$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.518842.6%80 W · 108 L+7.4wins+0.04per pick39cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xee5a…55fbbacked Yes38c50$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$191233.3%4 W · 8 L-0.8wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-23.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc309…513dbacked Yes37c50$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.510%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x1098…10a7backed Yes28c49.98$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.9941733.8%141 W · 276 L-17.0wins-0.04per pick38cpaid-9.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4add…6fe5backed Yes27c47.26$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.881,45236.8%534 W · 918 L+12.3wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5390…1649backed No75c46.59$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.591681.3%13 W · 3 L+1.6wins+0.10per pick71cpaid+13.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb55c…04eabacked No73c44.77$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.0920172.6%146 W · 55 L-6.3wins-0.03per pick76cpaid-4.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc96c…b868backed Yes40c44.49$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.629137.8%110 W · 181 L+3.3wins+0.01per pick37cpaid+3.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb1f8…2734backed No54c44.45$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.4531341.5%130 W · 183 L+18.3wins+0.06per pick36cpaid-1.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe573…ae05backed Yes45c44.44$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$204637%17 W · 29 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-5.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Yes26c43.52$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.317,1489.3%666 W · 6,482 L-1,105.8wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.9%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0xa9bd…e555backed Yes46c43.04$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.88035%28 W · 52 L-8.4wins-0.10per pick45cpaid-54.8%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x77b5…9170backed No76c42.94$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.493,17562.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L+12.6wins0.00per pick62cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf5dc…dec3backed No75c40.12$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.981,36069.3%943 W · 417 L+9.4wins+0.01per pick69cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe5a1…3840backed Yes45c39$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.51,15327.1%312 W · 841 L+16.9wins+0.01per pick26cpaid-0.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x3865…fcbebacked No65c38.68$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.681,00260.9%610 W · 392 L-26.2wins-0.03per pick63cpaid-7.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5944…a957backed No75c36$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.043976.9%30 W · 9 L+1.6wins+0.04per pick73cpaid+3.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9740…2eeebacked No55c35.99$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.192152.4%11 W · 10 L+2.0wins+0.10per pick43cpaid-19.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc24f…81d3backed No75c35$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.998571%699 W · 286 L+5.7wins+0.01per pick70cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xba3a…e041backed Yes36c34.54$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.569927.3%27 W · 72 L-8.9wins-0.09per pick36cpaid-36.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x4a5c…1d38backed No74c33.78$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.782576%19 W · 6 L+0.9wins+0.03per pick73cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdf40…38b8backed No71c32.75$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.558349.4%288 W · 295 L+13.4wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfd8e…aea4backed No79c31.87$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.842,26879.5%1,803 W · 465 L+98.4wins+0.04per pick75cpaid+5.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x91d9…141dbacked No61c31$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.191,25638.2%480 W · 776 L+53.3wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+6.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x36c2…2b8cbacked No71c30$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.770770.2%496 W · 211 L-4.2wins-0.01per pick71cpaid-2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3cb7…1a88backed No70c27$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.199949.5%495 W · 504 L+1.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid+2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc498…8ba5backed Yes48c22.92$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1142438.9%165 W · 259 L-4.6wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-2.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfa29…ec42backed No75c22.35$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.541154.5%6 W · 5 L-1.7wins-0.15per pick70cpaid-25.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xc6b2…8e12backed No72c21.93$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.1247442.4%201 W · 273 L-9.3wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-26.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x325e…5308backed No73c20.46$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.461741.2%7 W · 10 L-2.4wins-0.14per pick55cpaid-28.2%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x5339…4f99backed No74c20.27$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.273775.7%28 W · 9 L+1.5wins+0.04per pick72cpaid+5.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1639…f6dfbacked No75c20.09$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.093100%3 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+36.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbce0…f095backed No75c20.01$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.012889.3%25 W · 3 L+4.4wins+0.16per pick74cpaid+21.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xfaf1…c28cbacked No74c18.79$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.793565.7%23 W · 12 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick67cpaid-9.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1c52…c733backed No75c16.71$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.216100%6 W · 0 L+1.6wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+36.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe76d…337abacked No73c16.52$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.522475%18 W · 6 L+1.1wins+0.04per pick71cpaid+5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x039b…4477backed No67c16.32$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.321100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+48.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x39fa…0b7dbacked No74c16.22$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.2240777.1%314 W · 93 L+28.1wins+0.07per pick70cpaid+9.3%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x8abc…9e55backed No74c14.69$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.794872.9%35 W · 13 L0.0wins0.00per pick73cpaid-0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1b6c…d8cdbacked No75c13.95$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.57375.3%55 W · 18 L+1.9wins+0.03per pick73cpaid+2.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.