TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 13°C on March 26?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$19,011
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$19,970

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,011 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 80 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x1203…3947backed Yes1c1,729$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.8915639.7%62 W · 94 L-4.2wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-18%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes3c1,109$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.986,78739.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L+256.4wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-20.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6580…6fa8backed Yes43c996.5$427 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$426.797628.9%22 W · 54 L-2.5wins-0.03per pick32cpaid-4.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed Yes20c411.36$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.248,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes19c365.25$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.7517,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes7c268.74$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.181,54416.3%252 W · 1,292 L+21.9wins+0.01per pick15cpaid+10.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x993f…35cbbacked No73c265.38$195 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.851,84263.5%1,170 W · 672 L-42.5wins-0.02per pick66cpaid-6.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2099…3024backed Yes5c249.08$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.0133620.2%68 W · 268 L+24.9wins+0.07per pick13cpaid+8.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x9c23…56ecbacked Yes45c223.76$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10030141.2%124 W · 177 L-2.9wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8929…733ebacked Yes16c221.82$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.7556424.5%138 W · 426 L-18.3wins-0.03per pick28cpaid-31.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1600…9236backed Yes35c213.6$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.7335432.5%115 W · 239 L+9.2wins+0.03per pick30cpaid-3.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3f5c…1151backed Yes43c179.02$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.34728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.4wins-0.20per pick49cpaid-51.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x579a…9908backed No61c169.27$102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.7912154.5%66 W · 55 L+1.8wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xca35…2440backed No54c162.65$89 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.022277.3%17 W · 5 L+2.4wins+0.11per pick66cpaid+20.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x8f34…2f50backed No74c161.66$119 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.74,12060.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd802…d766backed No61c139.98$85 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.7930664.1%196 W · 110 L-0.4wins0.00per pick64cpaid+2.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No77c137.47$105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3212,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x09c5…9e8abacked Yes46c124.16$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.221333.8%72 W · 141 L-4.4wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-12.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4a7f…fb81backed No64c123.15$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.851100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+55.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x8713…bfd5backed Yes37c114.09$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$425058%29 W · 21 L+3.5wins+0.07per pick51cpaid+11.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf10e…4308backed No62c112.55$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.5523673.3%173 W · 63 L+28.6wins+0.12per pick61cpaid+27.6%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xf767…f052backed No76c111.5$85 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.828461.9%52 W · 32 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick61cpaid-2.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc73d…565abacked Yes50c110.77$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$555139.2%20 W · 31 L-2.0wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-11.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes38c105$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.99,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6ef3…f1c5backed Yes46c101.78$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.0532444.4%144 W · 180 L-10.1wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes35c101.69$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.833,85923.4%903 W · 2,956 L+128.4wins+0.03per pick20cpaid+10%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe48b…fdc2backed Yes22c100$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2261929.1%180 W · 439 L+21.8wins+0.04per pick26cpaid+0.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x91d9…141dbacked No54c98$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.081,25638.2%480 W · 776 L+53.3wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+6.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7a30…37a6backed Yes34c87.77$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3040935%143 W · 266 L-3.9wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-7.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes26c86.62$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.591,86123.8%443 W · 1,418 L+47.9wins+0.03per pick21cpaid+13.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0c36…e462backed Yes39c83$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.371338.5%5 W · 8 L0.0wins0.00per pick39cpaid-14.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x43b1…aba6backed Yes38c80.64$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.7677428.6%221 W · 553 L-5.5wins-0.01per pick29cpaid-24.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x89b4…55bcbacked Yes26c80$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2193034%316 W · 614 L+53.0wins+0.06per pick28cpaid+13.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x2ac0…071ebacked No55c72.72$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.723271.9%23 W · 9 L+5.6wins+0.17per pick54cpaid+29.9%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x77f0…2b1fbacked No57c66.44$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.373,02849.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L+16.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+10.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb70d…43f4backed No79c62.4$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.8717358.4%101 W · 72 L+14.3wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+56.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Yes33c60.22$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.97,1489.3%666 W · 6,482 L-1,105.8wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.9%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0x27cd…c7adbacked Yes35c57.14$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$204235.7%15 W · 27 L-5.4wins-0.13per pick49cpaid-33.4%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xbbc2…e280backed Yes36c55.5$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202070%14 W · 6 L+1.8wins+0.09per pick61cpaid+14.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe59d…0822backed Yes43c55.47$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$241546.7%7 W · 8 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-6.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5efb…5e3bbacked Yes41c54.86$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.492846.4%13 W · 15 L+3.3wins+0.12per pick35cpaid+47%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x3681…4e48backed No56c53.53$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.61,37556%770 W · 605 L+25.7wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+6.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb432…2bbfbacked No58c53.21$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.35850%4 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-19.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa9bd…e555backed Yes31c51.25$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.748035%28 W · 52 L-8.4wins-0.10per pick45cpaid-54.8%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xb608…881ebacked Yes38c50$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.9318842.6%80 W · 108 L+7.4wins+0.04per pick39cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1098…10a7backed Yes35c50$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.541733.8%141 W · 276 L-17.0wins-0.04per pick38cpaid-9.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes37c50$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.43,93935.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L+35.4wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe175…4752backed No64c49.99$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18475%3 W · 1 L+1.2wins+0.29per pick46cpaid+102.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9c82…f315backed Yes35c49.18$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.3613930.2%42 W · 97 L+0.2wins0.00per pick30cpaid-8.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7ce1…c33abacked No57c46.71$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.9414961.1%91 W · 58 L+5.7wins+0.04per pick57cpaid+5.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xfbd4…008bbacked Yes43c46.68$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdf40…38b8backed No58c43.2$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.3158349.4%288 W · 295 L+13.4wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x63d4…c2d0backed Yes24c42.87$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.51520%3 W · 12 L-2.2wins-0.14per pick34cpaid-67.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x097e…4fe5backed No55c39.88$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.88366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.23per pick44cpaid+37%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xee5a…55fbbacked Yes38c39.1$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.831233.3%4 W · 8 L-0.8wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-23.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xce6e…e4bcbacked Yes48c38.72$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.54742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.7wins+0.10per pick33cpaid+31.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x12b2…74b8backed No67c37.19$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.198968.5%61 W · 28 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick67cpaid+2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdc5b…619abacked No67c37$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.2127464.6%177 W · 97 L-1.2wins0.00per pick65cpaid-1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes35c36.79$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.0412,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x4248…60abbacked No58c35.05$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.862,21958.7%1,303 W · 916 L-11.5wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x354d…eb8fbacked Yes40c34.01$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.670133.5%235 W · 466 L+13.4wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+7.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb9fd…5c4fbacked Yes44c32.46$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.4314745.6%67 W · 80 L-11.2wins-0.08per pick53cpaid-14.6%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x8444…1cf9backed Yes45c31.31$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.0428737.6%108 W · 179 L-13.6wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-15.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7943…27a1backed Yes45c30$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.3532044.7%143 W · 177 L+9.6wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+4.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x31c6…f2dcbacked Yes43c30$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.91118.2%2 W · 9 L-1.1wins-0.10per pick28cpaid-45.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa74f…25c0backed No54c27.78$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.782458.3%14 W · 10 L-1.6wins-0.07per pick65cpaid-6.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0c5a…2a29backed Yes42c26.18$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.072611.5%3 W · 23 L-6.1wins-0.23per pick35cpaid-71%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0x1d14…abaebacked No73c25.55$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.853060%18 W · 12 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-13.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4be0…c37dbacked No60c25$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1019058.9%112 W · 78 L-8.2wins-0.04per pick63cpaid-7.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5322…fa84backed Yes44c25$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.053831.6%12 W · 26 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-11.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc472…b96cbacked No58c25$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.55928.8%17 W · 42 L-12.2wins-0.21per pick49cpaid-54.6%equal weight34-0.14 edge/pick
0xe9da…ed70backed No65c24.82$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.6976371.4%545 W · 218 L+11.2wins+0.01per pick70cpaid+2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x88e2…d474backed No69c24.56$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.5116639.2%65 W · 101 L-6.7wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-31.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc6b2…8e12backed No62c24.18$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.1747442.4%201 W · 273 L-9.3wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-26.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdeb9…58bebacked No69c23.82$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.441464.3%9 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick66cpaid-5.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7515…0f90backed No58c21.48$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.0215954.7%87 W · 72 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick56cpaid-5.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x84b7…eeb5backed No63c20.79$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.64117.1%7 W · 34 L-1.1wins-0.03per pick20cpaid-21.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x151b…ef82backed No64c20.72$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.468955.1%49 W · 40 L+2.4wins+0.03per pick52cpaid-5.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdc3f…f038backed No50c20$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1066141.8%276 W · 385 L-12.8wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-15.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x77b5…9170backed No72c16.87$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.783,17562.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L+12.6wins0.00per pick62cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.