Tennis · resolved market
Set Handicap: Fritz (-2.5) vs Bublik (+2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4d9a263c025d0c0b8b455a9d7e698a416fb2f2bdb1092c9a4617fe7c57e98f92
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Fritzof Fritz, Bublik
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,876
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,910
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,876 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7a5d…54dbbacked Bublik | 51c | 1,492$767 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$767.45 | 2,417 | 50.7%1,226 W · 1,191 L | +78.7wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a80…11c5backed Fritz | 46c | 768.24$352 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$416.33 | 739 | 51.7%382 W · 357 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6770…c3bdbacked Fritz | 48c | 715.1$342 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$372.64 | 923 | 52.5%485 W · 438 L | +10.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked Bublik | 72c | 678.68$489 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$489.47 | 4,241 | 52.6%2,232 W · 2,009 L | +65.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x629d…756cbacked Fritz | 46c | 566.42$259 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$307.67 | 2,082 | 52.3%1,088 W · 994 L | +19.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42a1…a8e9backed Fritz | 45c | 549.98$248 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$301.55 | 394 | 51.3%202 W · 192 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99f0…9495backed Fritz | 27c | 503.48$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$365.05 | 2,174 | 36.9%802 W · 1,372 L | +39.5wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Bublik | 57c | 367.27$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.01 | 9,286 | 44.3%4,110 W · 5,176 L | -245.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x077c…98abbacked Bublik | 61c | 315.25$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.3 | 94 | 50%47 W · 47 L | -5.6wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Bublik | 57c | 308.67$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.44 | 4,765 | 47%2,238 W · 2,527 L | -82.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7cb6…96d1backed Bublik | 64c | 300$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192 | 465 | 65.6%305 W · 160 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e0…7eecbacked Fritz | 52c | 150$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.31 | 1,175 | 52.9%622 W · 553 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x14e7…a32cbacked Fritz | 56c | 107.94$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.3 | 1,349 | 49.8%672 W · 677 L | -6.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x48de…95babacked Fritz | 43c | 94.07$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.62 | 625 | 45.4%284 W · 341 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Fritz | 26c | 89.41$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.33 | 3,874 | 45.4%1,758 W · 2,116 L | -39.6wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Bublik | 69c | 85.47$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.08 | 7,724 | 47.8%3,691 W · 4,033 L | +41.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5284…3b0bbacked Bublik | 59c | 84.75$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc6d…31cebacked Bublik | 18c | 79.73$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.35 | 58 | 34.5%20 W · 38 L | -3.5wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x167a…d542backed Bublik | 59c | 51.1$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.15 | 1,837 | 59.2%1,088 W · 749 L | +8.4wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee5a…9f70backed Fritz | 28c | 49.99$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.99 | 356 | 41.3%147 W · 209 L | +9.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe368…e9edbacked Fritz | 31c | 48.39$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.39 | 374 | 36.4%136 W · 238 L | -16.2wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x82b0…7c38backed Bublik | 39c | 47.92$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.69 | 359 | 55.7%200 W · 159 L | +20.3wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf71a…f366backed Fritz | 40c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Set Handicap: Fritz (-2.5) vs Bublik (+2.5)this page
- Fritz vs. Bublik: Match O/U 36.5Under won
- Fritz vs. Bublik: Match O/U 40.5Under won
- Set 1 Winner: Fritz vs BublikFritz won
- Set 2 Winner: Fritz vs BublikFritz won
- Set 3 Winner: Fritz vs BublikFritz won
- Set Handicap: Bublik (-1.5) vs Fritz (+1.5)Fritz won
- Set Handicap: Bublik (-2.5) vs Fritz (+2.5)Fritz won
- Set Handicap: Fritz (-1.5) vs Bublik (+1.5)Fritz won
- Taylor Fritz vs. Alexander Bublik: Total Sets O/U 3.5Under 3.5 won
- Taylor Fritz vs. Alexander Bublik: Total Sets O/U 4.5Under 4.5 won
- Wimbledon ATP: Taylor Fritz vs Alexander BublikTaylor Fritz won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.