Tennis · resolved market

Set Handicap: Fritz (-1.5) vs Bublik (+1.5)

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb67243f4e66e1efcf04b895b7615f6bd32383be38c4b83e6f80eac6bc835067e

Rebuilt 2 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Fritzof Fritz, Bublik
Resolved: Jul 6, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $23,284
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $23,643

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,284 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 62 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tennis
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x8a26…937ebacked Fritz	52c	16,049$8,298 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7,751.32	459	57.5%264 W · 195 L	+1.2wins	0.00per pick	57cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9c76…c926backed Bublik	47c	5,142$2,424 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,424.39	4,082	39.7%1,622 W · 2,460 L	+93.1wins	+0.02per pick	37cpaid	+7.2%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9217…ce22backed Fritz	52c	2,876$1,500 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,376.32	50	50%25 W · 25 L	+0.4wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+4.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7942…b60bbacked Fritz	52c	1,923$1,000 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$923.08	22	68.2%15 W · 7 L	+3.2wins	+0.14per pick	54cpaid	+29.4%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0xc34b…9296backed Bublik	49c	1,875$910 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$909.77	428	41.6%178 W · 250 L	+9.7wins	+0.02per pick	39cpaid	+4.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7069…325bbacked Bublik	49c	1,800$882 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$882	132	37.9%50 W · 82 L	-4.3wins	-0.03per pick	41cpaid	-16.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0e50…2609backed Bublik	48c	1,569$756 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$755.66	499	42.3%211 W · 288 L	+11.7wins	+0.02per pick	40cpaid	+4.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb1cb…2345backed Bublik	49c	1,300$637 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$637	124	44.4%55 W · 69 L	-2.5wins	-0.02per pick	46cpaid	-2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7055…9717backed Bublik	49c	1,223$594 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$594.33	223	52.5%117 W · 106 L	+6.1wins	+0.03per pick	50cpaid	+4%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x19b1…83a0backed Bublik	48c	1,042$500 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$500	39	64.1%25 W · 14 L	+3.8wins	+0.10per pick	54cpaid	+23.2%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x4a3f…4333backed Bublik	48c	833.33$400 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$400	439	43.7%192 W · 247 L	+15.9wins	+0.04per pick	40cpaid	+7.6%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe8c4…395dbacked Bublik	49c	814$399 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$398.86	1,047	50%524 W · 523 L	+37.4wins	+0.04per pick	46cpaid	+8.2%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8ce7…3150backed Bublik	49c	693$340 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$339.57	391	49.1%192 W · 199 L	+14.0wins	+0.04per pick	46cpaid	+9.7%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7547…d158backed Bublik	49c	600$294 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$294	7,107	39.7%2,820 W · 4,287 L	-17.5wins	0.00per pick	40cpaid	+0.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xce99…637ebacked Bublik	49c	545$267 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$267.05	5	60%3 W · 2 L	+0.5wins	+0.10per pick	50cpaid	-0.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5e30…acbfbacked Bublik	48c	513$246 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$246.24	7,753	47.8%3,703 W · 4,050 L	+39.5wins	+0.01per pick	47cpaid	+1.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8f1d…2fb6backed Bublik	47c	480$226 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$225.6	1,580	42.3%668 W · 912 L	+18.6wins	+0.01per pick	41cpaid	+2.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb4d0…a1c5backed Bublik	49c	376.12$185 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$185	1,579	39.8%629 W · 950 L	-34.0wins	-0.02per pick	42cpaid	-9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1ba7…67a1backed Bublik	49c	303.06$148 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$148.5	659	42.2%278 W · 381 L	-25.3wins	-0.04per pick	46cpaid	-7.8%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x35e7…8331backed Bublik	48c	300$144 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$144	2,275	42.7%972 W · 1,303 L	+33.5wins	+0.01per pick	41cpaid	+6.1%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa614…0bafbacked Fritz	51c	299.96$153 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$146.98	17	41.2%7 W · 10 L	+0.5wins	+0.03per pick	38cpaid	+5.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x99f0…9495backed Bublik	48c	299.04$143 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$142.86	2,204	36.9%813 W · 1,391 L	+39.0wins	+0.02per pick	35cpaid	+6.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xffe9…a70ebacked Fritz	53c	282.49$150 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$132.39	34	47.1%16 W · 18 L	-0.4wins	-0.01per pick	48cpaid	-2.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9726…fb3fbacked Fritz	51c	278.84$142 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$136.63	13	53.8%7 W · 6 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	55cpaid	+3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb6a8…b1f7backed Bublik	49c	204.08$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	287	38.3%110 W · 177 L	-3.2wins	-0.01per pick	39cpaid	-5.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x068c…582ebacked Bublik	47c	182.98$86 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$86	176	55.1%97 W · 79 L	-4.7wins	-0.03per pick	58cpaid	-7.6%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xcfbf…39e1backed Fritz	58c	170.69$99 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$71.69	25	44%11 W · 14 L	-1.9wins	-0.08per pick	52cpaid	-21.9%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x80d8…b703backed Bublik	42c	161.76$68 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$67.94	4,765	47%2,238 W · 2,527 L	-82.2wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-9.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa917…4e8dbacked Bublik	49c	134$66 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$65.66	120	48.3%58 W · 62 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	+3.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x222b…d3fdbacked Bublik	49c	130$64 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$63.64	36	50%18 W · 18 L	-0.5wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	+3.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9f15…bdb3backed Bublik	48c	111.66$54 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$53.59	1,158	41.4%479 W · 679 L	+24.7wins	+0.02per pick	39cpaid	+6.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7179…7d79backed Bublik	49c	102.04$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	2,639	46.4%1,224 W · 1,415 L	+19.7wins	+0.01per pick	46cpaid	+0.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9455…7defbacked Bublik	49c	102.04$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	1,000	49.8%498 W · 502 L	+19.7wins	+0.02per pick	48cpaid	+3.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2b35…0bfebacked Bublik	47c	100$47 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$47	1,542	49.2%759 W · 783 L	+16.8wins	+0.01per pick	48cpaid	+3.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xeee6…cbfebacked Fritz	50c	100$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$50	79	55.7%44 W · 35 L	+1.9wins	+0.02per pick	53cpaid	+1.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9696…2bc3backed Bublik	49c	100$49 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49	362	61.6%223 W · 139 L	+40.9wins	+0.11per pick	50cpaid	+24.6%equal weight	62+0.11 edge/pick
0x7d59…7c7dbacked Fritz	51c	97.06$49 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$47.56	42	57.1%24 W · 18 L	+3.2wins	+0.08per pick	50cpaid	+22.5%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xbcd6…f3c8backed Bublik	49c	92.5$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45.33	472	51.3%242 W · 230 L	+4.7wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	+4.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8499…950dbacked Bublik	49c	91.84$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45	131	43.5%57 W · 74 L	-6.7wins	-0.05per pick	49cpaid	-9.3%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x133a…504abacked Bublik	49c	91.84$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45	3,457	38.9%1,345 W · 2,112 L	-15.1wins	0.00per pick	39cpaid	-1.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa578…6702backed Fritz	49c	68.86$34 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$35.12	1,588	47%746 W · 842 L	-24.2wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-3.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x167a…d542backed Fritz	57c	63$36 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$27.09	1,877	59.4%1,115 W · 762 L	+8.5wins	0.00per pick	59cpaid	-1.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x392a…da0cbacked Bublik	51c	62.75$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32	80	47.5%38 W · 42 L	-2.9wins	-0.04per pick	51cpaid	-12.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2c60…01febacked Bublik	49c	62.5$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.44	206	55.3%114 W · 92 L	+9.9wins	+0.05per pick	51cpaid	+10.1%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9a51…bf4cbacked Bublik	47c	61.51$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.91	211	53.6%113 W · 98 L	+7.0wins	+0.03per pick	50cpaid	+8.2%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbe95…1a93backed Bublik	49c	52$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.48	116	42.2%49 W · 67 L	-4.9wins	-0.04per pick	46cpaid	-6.9%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf0ad…34cebacked Bublik	49c	51.02$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	440	51.6%227 W · 213 L	-5.5wins	-0.01per pick	53cpaid	+2.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfb77…1c78backed Bublik	49c	50.98$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.98	2,179	37%807 W · 1,372 L	-32.2wins	-0.01per pick	39cpaid	-5.5%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6ca6…4b74backed Bublik	50c	50$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	447	42.3%189 W · 258 L	+14.3wins	+0.03per pick	39cpaid	+12.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7d0e…4f01backed Bublik	49c	50$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.5	1,269	44.8%568 W · 701 L	-5.4wins	0.00per pick	45cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x715d…a4babacked Bublik	51c	48.65$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	340	47.6%162 W · 178 L	+5.7wins	+0.02per pick	46cpaid	+3.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4738…9cfbbacked Fritz	51c	41$21 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$20.09	363	48.2%175 W · 188 L	+17.8wins	+0.05per pick	43cpaid	+14%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1fff…a8e5backed Bublik	49c	40.82$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.5wins	-0.49per pick	49cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x341d…2995backed Bublik	50c	39.61$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	311	61.1%190 W · 121 L	-8.0wins	-0.03per pick	64cpaid	-6.7%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2c97…c20bbacked Bublik	51c	39.04$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	158	37.3%59 W · 99 L	-19.6wins	-0.12per pick	50cpaid	-26.3%equal weight	38-0.11 edge/pick
0x4b89…9183backed Bublik	49c	38.93$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.08	205	66.8%137 W · 68 L	-2.3wins	-0.01per pick	68cpaid	-2.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1f65…38bfbacked Bublik	46c	38$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.48	134	66.4%89 W · 45 L	+6.3wins	+0.05per pick	62cpaid	+3.9%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa8cf…6b0bbacked Bublik	50c	30$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	29	41.4%12 W · 17 L	-2.8wins	-0.10per pick	51cpaid	-21%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x3c32…7156backed Bublik	49c	29$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.21	820	55%451 W · 369 L	+2.2wins	0.00per pick	55cpaid	-0.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x93dc…3728backed Fritz	55c	27.27$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12.27	427	45.7%195 W · 232 L	-11.7wins	-0.03per pick	48cpaid	-5.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2892…e9d7backed Bublik	48c	25$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	410	45.1%185 W · 225 L	+2.5wins	+0.01per pick	45cpaid	+1.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbced…5808backed Bublik	49c	23$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.27	348	60.3%210 W · 138 L	+12.3wins	+0.04per pick	57cpaid	+7.7%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Set Handicap: Fritz (-1.5) vs Bublik (+1.5)this page
Fritz vs. Bublik: Match O/U 36.5Under won
Fritz vs. Bublik: Match O/U 40.5Under won
Set 1 Winner: Fritz vs BublikFritz won
Set 2 Winner: Fritz vs BublikFritz won
Set 3 Winner: Fritz vs BublikFritz won
Set Handicap: Bublik (-1.5) vs Fritz (+1.5)Fritz won
Set Handicap: Bublik (-2.5) vs Fritz (+2.5)Fritz won
Set Handicap: Fritz (-2.5) vs Bublik (+2.5)Fritz won
Taylor Fritz vs. Alexander Bublik: Total Sets O/U 3.5Under 3.5 won
Taylor Fritz vs. Alexander Bublik: Total Sets O/U 4.5Under 4.5 won
Wimbledon ATP: Taylor Fritz vs Alexander BublikTaylor Fritz won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Set Handicap: Fritz (-1.5) vs Bublik (+1.5)

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event