Tennis · resolved market
Taylor Fritz vs. Alexander Bublik: Total Sets O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfd725360a5515dce4d85cba979d8554df992c01cefd7c00597e3d168abb10d27
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Under 3.5of Over 3.5, Under 3.5
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,153
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,954
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,153 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe7a2…ae70backed Over 3.5 | 66c | 5,600$3,696 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,696 | 159 | 52.2%83 W · 76 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd4c3…60d9backed Over 3.5 | 67c | 3,624$2,410 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,410.47 | 142 | 52.8%75 W · 67 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked Under 3.5 | 34c | 2,500$850 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,650 | 3,871 | 35%1,353 W · 2,518 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd8e…f023backed Over 3.5 | 65c | 2,500$1,621 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,620.84 | 572 | 49.5%283 W · 289 L | -32.8wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9f15…bdb3backed Under 3.5 | 34c | 1,962$660 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,302.02 | 1,149 | 41.3%474 W · 675 L | +23.6wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Under 3.5 | 34c | 1,457$495 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$961.4 | 4,076 | 39.7%1,620 W · 2,456 L | +93.7wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Under 3.5 | 33c | 1,272$420 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$852.51 | 384 | 46.4%178 W · 206 L | +13.4wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Under 3.5 | 34c | 1,000$340 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$660 | 1,510 | 37.7%569 W · 941 L | +24.5wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Over 3.5 | 5c | 998.75$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.94 | 9,286 | 44.3%4,110 W · 5,176 L | -245.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Under 3.5 | 34c | 832.29$283 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$549.46 | 7,724 | 47.8%3,691 W · 4,033 L | +41.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc249…8a61backed Under 3.5 | 33c | 600$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$402 | 671 | 44.7%300 W · 371 L | +30.7wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7547…d158backed Under 3.5 | 34c | 600$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$396 | 7,049 | 39.7%2,795 W · 4,254 L | -20.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5108…29cbbacked Over 3.5 | 67c | 597.01$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 271 | 51.3%139 W · 132 L | -9.4wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99f0…9495backed Under 3.5 | 34c | 588.08$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$386.51 | 2,174 | 36.9%802 W · 1,372 L | +39.5wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc83…fdd4backed Under 3.5 | 35c | 527.87$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$343.12 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +4.6wins | +0.19per pick | 43cpaid | +58.1%equal weight | 61+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Over 3.5 | 5c | 474.98$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.75 | 6,439 | 54.4%3,502 W · 2,937 L | +285.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Under 3.5 | 36c | 400$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$256 | 4,765 | 47%2,238 W · 2,527 L | -82.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4be6…b010backed Over 3.5 | 66c | 378.79$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 1,428 | 48.2%689 W · 739 L | +4.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1fe4…d0f1backed Over 3.5 | 66c | 198.1$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.75 | 71 | 57.7%41 W · 30 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b3…145dbacked Over 3.5 | 65c | 184.62$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 917 | 54%495 W · 422 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x224f…514abacked Under 3.5 | 34c | 167.15$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.32 | 288 | 50.3%145 W · 143 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x682a…c87dbacked Over 3.5 | 66c | 152$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.32 | 42 | 45.2%19 W · 23 L | -5.9wins | -0.14per pick | 59cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x04a0…a986backed Over 3.5 | 66c | 149.98$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.99 | 109 | 65.1%71 W · 38 L | +7.0wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x01ee…6ab0backed Over 3.5 | 67c | 148.99$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 117 | 52.1%61 W · 56 L | -5.3wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x36b3…e421backed Under 3.5 | 34c | 144.1$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.11 | 852 | 50%426 W · 426 L | +22.4wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3cad…92f0backed Under 3.5 | 35c | 142.86$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.86 | 3,220 | 40.5%1,305 W · 1,915 L | +28.3wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2208…53eebacked Under 3.5 | 37c | 135.65$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.65 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +3.2wins | +0.11per pick | 46cpaid | +20%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x133a…504abacked Under 3.5 | 35c | 128.57$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.57 | 3,424 | 39.1%1,338 W · 2,086 L | -12.3wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85c3…700cbacked Under 3.5 | 35c | 125.26$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.42 | 1,688 | 45.4%766 W · 922 L | -10.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbcd6…f3c8backed Under 3.5 | 35c | 123.09$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.01 | 472 | 51.3%242 W · 230 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Over 3.5 | 27c | 103.45$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.47 | 1,379 | 16.4%226 W · 1,153 L | -108.5wins | -0.08per pick | 24cpaid | -49.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x31e7…fe2abacked Under 3.5 | 35c | 100$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65 | 1,356 | 38.3%520 W · 836 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9bc5…908abacked Over 3.5 | 66c | 100$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 587 | 53.7%315 W · 272 L | -10.8wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d38…6f08backed Under 3.5 | 52c | 99.99$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 112 | 53.6%60 W · 52 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2045…c77cbacked Over 3.5 | 66c | 99.96$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.81 | 223 | 59.6%133 W · 90 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3145…fcf5backed Over 3.5 | 67c | 86.27$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.8 | 61 | 55.7%34 W · 27 L | -4.7wins | -0.08per pick | 64cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb421…8856backed Over 3.5 | 48c | 83.54$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.1 | 1,776 | 48.6%863 W · 913 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb77…1c78backed Under 3.5 | 35c | 71.43$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.43 | 2,151 | 37.3%802 W · 1,349 L | -27.2wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2ae…f36bbacked Over 3.5 | 64c | 69.99$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.79 | 389 | 47.3%184 W · 205 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Under 3.5 | 35c | 68$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.2 | 3,874 | 45.4%1,758 W · 2,116 L | -39.6wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd59b…5c85backed Over 3.5 | 66c | 60.84$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -4.6wins | -0.20per pick | 68cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2095…8521backed Under 3.5 | 34c | 37.39$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.67 | 176 | 58.5%103 W · 73 L | +12.1wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +17%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfea6…b795backed Under 3.5 | 35c | 35$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.6 | 541 | 41.4%224 W · 317 L | -19.7wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…b969backed Over 3.5 | 67c | 28.36$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -2.0wins | -0.40per pick | 60cpaid | -70.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8e88…b235backed Under 3.5 | 67c | 20.12$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.64 | 87 | 57.5%50 W · 37 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Taylor Fritz vs. Alexander Bublik: Total Sets O/U 3.5this page
- Fritz vs. Bublik: Match O/U 36.5Under won
- Fritz vs. Bublik: Match O/U 40.5Under won
- Set 1 Winner: Fritz vs BublikFritz won
- Set 2 Winner: Fritz vs BublikFritz won
- Set 3 Winner: Fritz vs BublikFritz won
- Set Handicap: Bublik (-1.5) vs Fritz (+1.5)Fritz won
- Set Handicap: Bublik (-2.5) vs Fritz (+2.5)Fritz won
- Set Handicap: Fritz (-1.5) vs Bublik (+1.5)Fritz won
- Set Handicap: Fritz (-2.5) vs Bublik (+2.5)Fritz won
- Taylor Fritz vs. Alexander Bublik: Total Sets O/U 4.5Under 4.5 won
- Wimbledon ATP: Taylor Fritz vs Alexander BublikTaylor Fritz won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.