WNBA · resolved market
Liberty vs. Mercury
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4da2eda604f54290ed2fec795904e5acaa285aadc15df98908c31516e235d2dd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Mercuryof Liberty, Mercury
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- WNBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $55,110
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $57,872
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $55,110 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 58 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in WNBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in WNBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x799c…bcefbacked Liberty | 54c | 8,010$4,300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,300.28 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -3.3wins | -0.33per pick | 63cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Mercury | 62c | 7,149$4,436 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,713.03 | 1,611 | 50.2%809 W · 802 L | +37.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90ba…63f3backed Liberty | 49c | 5,179$2,551 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,550.86 | 239 | 31.8%76 W · 163 L | +11.4wins | +0.05per pick | 27cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…6e98backed Liberty | 35c | 4,078$1,418 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,418 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -3.3wins | -0.30per pick | 48cpaid | -65.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xaf19…ca28backed Mercury | 53c | 2,842$1,504 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,337.63 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.35per pick | 40cpaid | +77.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8351…9bebbacked Mercury | 53c | 1,796$960 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$835.97 | 120 | 45%54 W · 66 L | -9.4wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -15%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x56fc…733ebacked Mercury | 78c | 1,720$1,342 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$378.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Mercury | 52c | 1,697$880 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$816.79 | 144 | 50.7%73 W · 71 L | +4.2wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ebb…061abacked Liberty | 59c | 1,695$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Mercury | 52c | 1,573$821 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$751.76 | 85 | 48.2%41 W · 44 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd2bd…dce0backed Mercury | 50c | 1,560$784 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$775.84 | 78 | 55.1%43 W · 35 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Mercury | 47c | 1,417$659 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$757.66 | 124 | 63.7%79 W · 45 L | +5.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e94…6243backed Mercury | 48c | 1,139$545 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$594.91 | 74 | 40.5%30 W · 44 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x197f…dc8dbacked Liberty | 44c | 1,125$496 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$496.49 | 51 | 54.9%28 W · 23 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cd2…f9a6backed Liberty | 1c | 1,100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb7…e33dbacked Liberty | 48c | 1,049$502 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$502.07 | 71 | 62%44 W · 27 L | +9.8wins | +0.14per pick | 48cpaid | +35.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc2f8…56b6backed Mercury | 54c | 1,036$556 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$479.37 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | +3.6wins | +0.10per pick | 43cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6239…c24fbacked Mercury | 52c | 1,014$527 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$486.69 | 77 | 53.2%41 W · 36 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8849…9a83backed Mercury | 65c | 650$423 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$227.5 | 113 | 53.1%60 W · 53 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb852…bfaebacked Mercury | 47c | 600$282 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$318 | 66 | 31.8%21 W · 45 L | +3.1wins | +0.05per pick | 27cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7db7…d372backed Mercury | 42c | 577.93$243 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$335.2 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf267…0a4cbacked Mercury | 45c | 550$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300.5 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2934…0b51backed Mercury | 50c | 500$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250 | 103 | 37.9%39 W · 64 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe5ef…9e7abacked Mercury | 53c | 443.92$235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.64 | 115 | 45.2%52 W · 63 L | +5.7wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Mercury | 50c | 419.53$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.54 | 90 | 55.6%50 W · 40 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb033…bedbbacked Liberty | 54c | 400$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Liberty | 47c | 397.58$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.86 | 386 | 50.3%194 W · 192 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaeb5…58e2backed Mercury | 50c | 313$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.5 | 128 | 40.6%52 W · 76 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xefe7…0cdfbacked Mercury | 68c | 266.47$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.54 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -50.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Mercury | 60c | 263.75$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.48 | 318 | 47.8%152 W · 166 L | +4.2wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f19…aec2backed Mercury | 78c | 244.4$191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.73 | 130 | 44.6%58 W · 72 L | -4.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2174…85f4backed Mercury | 51c | 236.02$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.02 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +2.9wins | +0.33per pick | 56cpaid | +59%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Liberty | 49c | 203.63$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 175 | 41.1%72 W · 103 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb5e7…3c1abacked Mercury | 53c | 200.99$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.47 | 48 | 58.3%28 W · 20 L | -3.0wins | -0.06per pick | 65cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…4c9abacked Liberty | 47c | 200$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94 | 213 | 37.6%80 W · 133 L | +11.5wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +18%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Mercury | 51c | 196.5$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.5 | 272 | 32.7%89 W · 183 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Mercury | 46c | 184.4$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.58 | 78 | 51.3%40 W · 38 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a90…8218backed Mercury | 54c | 166.67$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.67 | 43 | 46.5%20 W · 23 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7d9…b00bbacked Mercury | 44c | 166.66$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.39 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.19per pick | 48cpaid | +55.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa270…42c9backed Liberty | 48c | 161.55$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.54 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | -5.2wins | -0.20per pick | 47cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xfd3f…a8bdbacked Mercury | 50c | 127.4$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.7 | 43 | 58.1%25 W · 18 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd727…eccebacked Liberty | 47c | 100$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 40 | 52.5%21 W · 19 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Liberty | 45c | 100$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 128 | 33.6%43 W · 85 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3df4…57dfbacked Mercury | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd5c…1d65backed Liberty | 54c | 83.83$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.07 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x97e1…017bbacked Liberty | 24c | 80.41$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.44 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | +3.1wins | +0.08per pick | 40cpaid | -5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Mercury | 59c | 60$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.53 | 152 | 46.7%71 W · 81 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1208…0160backed Mercury | 42c | 58.55$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.7 | 232 | 34.5%80 W · 152 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5a7…5c6bbacked Mercury | 54c | 57.61$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.5 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0cee…1832backed Liberty | 47c | 42.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 40 | 50%20 W · 20 L | +2.3wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8ee5…ca6bbacked Mercury | 46c | 32.61$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.61 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2272…2e9cbacked Mercury | 52c | 31.24$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 50 | 48%24 W · 26 L | +4.0wins | +0.08per pick | 40cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xded7…1ef1backed Liberty | 38c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Mercury | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.12 | 98 | 39.8%39 W · 59 L | +8.8wins | +0.09per pick | 31cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd4…1b50backed Liberty | 46c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 65 | 60%39 W · 26 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85cc…4895backed Mercury | 49c | 27.42$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.92 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +32%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Liberty | 47c | 22.83$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.73 | 214 | 40.7%87 W · 127 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c87…70d5backed Mercury | 53c | 22.83$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.73 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -3.0wins | -0.16per pick | 50cpaid | -41%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in WNBA and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.