Asian League · resolved market
Nagoya Grampus vs. Cerezo Ōsaka: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4df39c2a1ce730aa97ebbadc2e62cc784a4a351b43944abec32a05e38d5b7d71
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Asian Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,431
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,093
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,431 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Asian League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Asian League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3e3c…37e4backed Over | 55c | 1,360$752 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$608 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.23per pick | 48cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x65be…5546backed Under | 45c | 900$405 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$405 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.8wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x26eb…22d0backed Under | 45c | 748.78$337 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$336.95 | 43 | 41.9%18 W · 25 L | -2.6wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -12%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1df5…1e18backed Over | 77c | 611.49$468 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.49 | 73 | 50.7%37 W · 36 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +15%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 57c | 586.04$336 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$336.05 | 5,946 | 46.1%2,743 W · 3,203 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa35f…b58fbacked Over | 30c | 475.46$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$332.82 | 44 | 20.5%9 W · 35 L | -4.0wins | -0.09per pick | 30cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4924…3782backed Over | 52c | 438.09$228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210.28 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | +1.8wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce9d…3c05backed Under | 58c | 399.86$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230 | 50 | 44%22 W · 28 L | -5.5wins | -0.11per pick | 55cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Over | 70c | 251.43$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.71 | 693 | 52.2%362 W · 331 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked Under | 47c | 243.51$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.21 | 934 | 46.1%431 W · 503 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked Over | 55c | 203.93$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.07 | 82 | 29.3%24 W · 58 L | -3.5wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xabce…2f87backed Over | 45c | 172.23$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.08 | 260 | 52.7%137 W · 123 L | +10.8wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +13%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 58c | 162.2$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.48 | 1,356 | 45.5%617 W · 739 L | +15.0wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Under | 48c | 150.33$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.05 | 1,117 | 46.2%516 W · 601 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d9d…8961backed Over | 55c | 137.54$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.25 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 46c | 125.78$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.44 | 1,970 | 54.4%1,071 W · 899 L | +32.9wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Over | 25c | 120.77$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.57 | 1,651 | 50.9%840 W · 811 L | +5.8wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x47dc…298bbacked Under | 49c | 102.04$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -2.7wins | -0.27per pick | 57cpaid | -53.3%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Over | 37c | 96.02$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.25 | 363 | 52.9%192 W · 171 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef18…4d70backed Over | 55c | 84.3$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.89 | 375 | 62.7%235 W · 140 L | +61.4wins | +0.16per pick | 46cpaid | +36.3%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xb6d2…d67bbacked Over | 72c | 81.71$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.88 | 375 | 59.2%222 W · 153 L | +12.0wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd60c…2b06backed Over | 56c | 78.3$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.45 | 395 | 61.8%244 W · 151 L | +56.1wins | +0.14per pick | 48cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x7c15…9667backed Under | 56c | 65$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.4 | 219 | 41.6%91 W · 128 L | -17.3wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdbde…3dc9backed Over | 44c | 65$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.4 | 191 | 58.6%112 W · 79 L | +19.1wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +31.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc2d7…2b16backed Under | 45c | 59.44$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.75 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae31…7fa1backed Over | 57c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e4c…5c55backed Over | 52c | 44.77$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.49 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c44…5eefbacked Over | 53c | 43.26$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.33 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.48per pick | 53cpaid | +90.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa0c5…4291backed Over | 55c | 40$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 36 | 66.7%24 W · 12 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5514…bfa1backed Over | 35c | 32.06$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.92 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +44%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x20a6…0b06backed Over | 55c | 30.81$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.86 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.23per pick | 52cpaid | +43.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c9e…8e90backed Over | 52c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.4 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.23per pick | 52cpaid | +46.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1df2…1805backed Over | 55c | 28.57$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.86 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.7wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +72.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaacb…03b7backed Over | 53c | 28.48$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.48 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8e6…1001backed Over | 53c | 28.48$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.48 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +68.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x50aa…e9adbacked Over | 53c | 28.48$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.48 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99d5…9622backed Over | 53c | 25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.75 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd809…6542backed Under | 61c | 18.65$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.29 | 163 | 56.4%92 W · 71 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x82de…1337backed Under | 61c | 18.65$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.29 | 145 | 57.2%83 W · 62 L | +6.3wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd51e…ac0cbacked Under | 61c | 18.65$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.29 | 90 | 56.7%51 W · 39 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2373…a1f3backed Under | 61c | 18.65$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.29 | 116 | 54.3%63 W · 53 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40d…3c42backed Over | 56c | 18.34$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.07 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca1d…2e6abacked Under | 70c | 16.89$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.82 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x30db…44e1backed Under | 62c | 16.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.23 | 85 | 58.8%50 W · 35 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Asian League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Nagoya Grampus vs. Cerezo Ōsaka: O/U 2.5this page
- Nagoya Grampus vs. Cerezo Ōsaka: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Nagoya Grampus vs. Cerezo Ōsaka: O/U 1.5Over won
- Nagoya Grampus vs. Cerezo Ōsaka: O/U 3.5Under won
- Nagoya Grampus vs. Cerezo Ōsaka: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.