Asian League · resolved market
Will Yokohama F·Marinos win on 2026-05-16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4e15004703149483dee37d9948fb4b3b01aae45b81c85fdc98624cb8343bc7bb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Asian Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,409
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,449
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,409 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Asian League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Asian League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbe7e…6d00backed Yes | 12c | 8,655$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 78 | 34.6%27 W · 51 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c4…7385backed Yes | 29c | 1,227$356 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$355.83 | 196 | 33.2%65 W · 131 L | -11.2wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Yes | 23c | 1,076$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$248.8 | 2,491 | 40%997 W · 1,494 L | -18.8wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbffb…a60ebacked No | 71c | 999.99$710 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$290 | 66 | 43.9%29 W · 37 L | -7.9wins | -0.12per pick | 56cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 71c | 615.32$437 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.23 | 1,764 | 50.2%886 W · 878 L | +31.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked No | 71c | 400$284 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116 | 396 | 49.7%197 W · 199 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x399f…e8d8backed Yes | 28c | 357.14$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -32%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a05…754abacked Yes | 11c | 327.27$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 49 | 53.1%26 W · 23 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb7a7…55bebacked No | 73c | 273.97$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.97 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Yes | 11c | 263$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.93 | 1,028 | 41.7%429 W · 599 L | -31.8wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7210…521fbacked No | 72c | 211.11$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.11 | 38 | 57.9%22 W · 16 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefdd…1e8abacked No | 72c | 200$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.23per pick | 52cpaid | +42.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0d0a…0809backed Yes | 29c | 150$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.5 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d60…453dbacked No | 72c | 138.89$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.89 | 246 | 54.1%133 W · 113 L | -7.5wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7053…25e4backed Yes | 29c | 137.93$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 33 | 33.3%11 W · 22 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -12%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8de6…8b3cbacked No | 73c | 137.44$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.44 | 126 | 60.3%76 W · 50 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Yes | 16c | 124.93$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.77 | 1,522 | 54.9%835 W · 687 L | +5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba67…4727backed No | 71c | 116.04$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.65 | 183 | 53.6%98 W · 85 L | +7.3wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x04ed…5694backed Yes | 29c | 109.77$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.89 | 65 | 38.5%25 W · 40 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed No | 72c | 100.5$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.14 | 899 | 55.1%495 W · 404 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa299…ac77backed Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 69 | 44.9%31 W · 38 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d7f…86d2backed Yes | 11c | 99.33$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.93 | 276 | 39.1%108 W · 168 L | -14.4wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Yes | 27c | 82.29$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.22 | 1,110 | 49.5%549 W · 561 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed No | 71c | 79.05$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.75 | 388 | 49.5%192 W · 196 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc599…f725backed No | 72c | 69$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.32 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e4a…5ba6backed Yes | 29c | 68.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x587b…2622backed No | 80c | 62.34$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.47 | 487 | 68%331 W · 156 L | +69.2wins | +0.14per pick | 54cpaid | +37.1%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x033a…586dbacked Yes | 28c | 53.57$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 58cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d27…c38cbacked No | 72c | 43.15$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.08 | 116 | 50%58 W · 58 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35d1…1f70backed No | 72c | 27.54$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.71 | 208 | 60.1%125 W · 83 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeda9…f624backed No | 71c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.25 | 89 | 58.4%52 W · 37 L | -3.3wins | -0.04per pick | 62cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa233…dfe8backed No | 72c | 17.89$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.01 | 40 | 85%34 W · 6 L | +6.7wins | +0.17per pick | 68cpaid | +29.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3a15…52d6backed No | 73c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.05 | 52 | 71.2%37 W · 15 L | +4.5wins | +0.09per pick | 63cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Asian League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Yokohama F·Marinos win on 2026-05-16?this page
- Will Kashiwa Reysol win on 2026-05-16?Yes won
- Will Yokohama F·Marinos vs. Kashiwa Reysol end in a draw?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.