NHL · resolved market
Utah vs. Stars: O/U 7.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4e2704781eb20442add8829aae4c39bf763cdc74fbe388ca50f3fca2cc3ea207
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,185
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,185 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4488…579cbacked Under | 58c | 209$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.43 | 347 | 52.4%182 W · 165 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 42c | 186.93$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.05 | 2,754 | 47.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L | +11.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b44…d8debacked Over | 43c | 166$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.86 | 295 | 53.6%158 W · 137 L | +13.9wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0684…d1fabacked Over | 40c | 125.49$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.49 | 51 | 51%26 W · 25 L | +5.0wins | +0.10per pick | 41cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Under | 76c | 100$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.33 | 2,314 | 46.5%1,075 W · 1,239 L | -7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x42f8…f96fbacked Under | 55c | 100$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.7 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 45cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Under | 54c | 85.75$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.34 | 1,384 | 47.1%652 W · 732 L | +25.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c65…6b11backed Under | 79c | 72$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.88 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 54cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb3c…b4f5backed Over | 30c | 70$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 46 | 52.2%24 W · 22 L | +3.0wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc539…5ec2backed Over | 30c | 66.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.67 | 42 | 45.2%19 W · 23 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x782b…ff64backed Under | 77c | 65$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.1 | 326 | 53.1%173 W · 153 L | +18.1wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 29c | 62.55$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.4 | 3,704 | 50.5%1,871 W · 1,833 L | +105.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2d…fbf5backed Over | 48c | 61.7$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.34 | 272 | 50%136 W · 136 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fde…0258backed Under | 54c | 60.54$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.4 | 336 | 47.9%161 W · 175 L | -5.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x913b…0852backed Under | 70c | 36.7$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.69 | 303 | 48.8%148 W · 155 L | -12.7wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8afa…28f0backed Under | 53c | 36.68$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.44 | 332 | 51.5%171 W · 161 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2562…72a9backed Under | 79c | 31.65$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x551c…fe91backed Over | 57c | 25.82$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 333 | 63.7%212 W · 121 L | +44.3wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x387e…ca5dbacked Under | 78c | 25.64$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.31per pick | 64cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b5…7e80backed Under | 57c | 17.53$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.06 | 1,107 | 52%576 W · 531 L | +63.9wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8441…7925backed Under | 67c | 16$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.72 | 149 | 44.3%66 W · 83 L | -7.3wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Utah vs. Stars: O/U 7.5this page
- Spread: Stars (-1.5)Utah won
- Utah vs. StarsUtah won
- Utah vs. Stars: O/U 4.5Over won
- Utah vs. Stars: O/U 5.5Over won
- Utah vs. Stars: O/U 6.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.