TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Movies · resolved market

Will "From the World of John Wick: Ballerina" Rotten Tomatoes score be between 70-79?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$35,190
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$40,105

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $35,190 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Movies
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x4fad…1480backed No0c4,041$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.614212%17 W · 125 L-2.4wins-0.02per pick14cpaid-75.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9178…a2b2backed No2c1,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$208422.6%19 W · 65 L+2.0wins+0.02per pick20cpaid-30.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x08e2…71b1backed No53c758.99$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$399.610037%37 W · 63 L+3.4wins+0.03per pick34cpaid-1.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x490f…17e5backed No2c666.99$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.69673%2 W · 65 L-4.0wins-0.06per pick9cpaid-75.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0e9c…0f95backed No8c646.46$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x524c…64c8backed No15c450.35$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.65254%1 W · 24 L-2.3wins-0.09per pick13cpaid-93.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xfead…b304backed Yes31c429.1$131 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$298.21315.4%2 W · 11 L-0.7wins-0.06per pick21cpaid-36.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xee04…c22bbacked Yes48c412.13$197 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$215.622931%9 W · 20 L+1.6wins+0.06per pick26cpaid-23.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x04dc…2387backed Yes44c410$180 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$230.3512539.2%49 W · 76 L+2.9wins+0.02per pick37cpaid+10.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8085…ea17backed Yes44c376.65$165 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$211.214938.8%19 W · 30 L+3.8wins+0.08per pick31cpaid-8.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x53c4…6582backed No21c329.86$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$703713.5%5 W · 32 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick15cpaid-47.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4a49…7447backed No21c305.68$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.54520%1 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.09per pick29cpaid-71.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed No51c229.77$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$117.650633.4%169 W · 337 L-30.0wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-31.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xb877…a13fbacked Yes77c205.17$158 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.861816.7%3 W · 15 L-0.9wins-0.05per pick21cpaid-76.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x116f…9210backed No56c167.3$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.1310123.8%24 W · 77 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick25cpaid-35.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc105…1e30backed Yes60c165.47$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.47250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.10per pick40cpaid-17.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcced…9ffebacked No35c163.85$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.982360.9%14 W · 9 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick60cpaid+3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6dee…f4e6backed No17c131.73$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.92965.5%19 W · 10 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-7.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No43c112.61$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.4487033.3%290 W · 580 L-77.0wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-37.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xa620…0b8fbacked Yes46c112$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.6633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.07per pick26cpaid-21.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd240…562cbacked Yes56c110$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.13429.4%10 W · 24 L+1.8wins+0.05per pick24cpaid+0.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x935d…08ffbacked No12c103.22$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.19250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.12per pick38cpaid-23%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0484…a23ebacked No53c101$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.532321.7%5 W · 18 L-1.8wins-0.08per pick30cpaid-62.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7853…36d8backed No37c100$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.56622.7%15 W · 51 L-3.6wins-0.05per pick28cpaid-50.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x88b0…b118backed No73c88.86$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.449231.5%29 W · 63 L-4.1wins-0.04per pick36cpaid-37.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8fff…c9dabacked No73c65.37$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.72922.2%2 W · 7 L-1.2wins-0.14per pick36cpaid-39.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Yes67c61.37$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.0536538.1%139 W · 226 L-19.8wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-23.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xb167…f6e8backed Yes27c50$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.51100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.73per pick27cpaid+270.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd113…7c96backed Yes71c30.2$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.8250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.12per pick38cpaid-29.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe576…5e02backed No60c18.56$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.2240%0 W · 4 L-1.9wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.