Tennis · resolved market
Lincoln: Mark Lajal vs Rio Noguchi
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4e9db9483ed709c03afd3fa1785a55acfd90f84cfb0eb760d897951b6503287d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Mark Lajalof Mark Lajal, Rio Noguchi
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $67,120
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $73,823
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $67,120 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 63 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Rio Noguchi | 7c | 23,257$1,538 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,538.08 | 8,828 | 36.1%3,190 W · 5,638 L | -193.3wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32b4…8b21backed Rio Noguchi | 37c | 5,007$1,852 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,852.14 | 3,605 | 42.4%1,530 W · 2,075 L | -43.2wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Mark Lajal | 66c | 1,500$990 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$510 | 9,286 | 44.3%4,110 W · 5,176 L | -245.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Mark Lajal | 78c | 1,444$1,127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$316.27 | 4,533 | 67.7%3,071 W · 1,462 L | +306.6wins | +0.07per pick | 61cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc2be…af12backed Rio Noguchi | 4c | 1,171$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.72 | 2,032 | 46.9%952 W · 1,080 L | -12.4wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked Rio Noguchi | 34c | 736.83$247 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$247.02 | 389 | 31.4%122 W · 267 L | -14.0wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xecdb…c4c7backed Rio Noguchi | 30c | 609.33$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.8 | 559 | 41.3%231 W · 328 L | -5.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Rio Noguchi | 6c | 584.61$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.03 | 4,934 | 41.5%2,048 W · 2,886 L | -77.0wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd034…eecebacked Rio Noguchi | 30c | 543.45$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.74 | 2,735 | 34%931 W · 1,804 L | -13.2wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba2…d212backed Rio Noguchi | 18c | 515.5$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.29 | 1,959 | 43.7%857 W · 1,102 L | -20.9wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeea3…a6a2backed Mark Lajal | 68c | 454.54$308 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.39 | 3,068 | 57.3%1,757 W · 1,311 L | +173.3wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed Rio Noguchi | 29c | 454.45$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.79 | 1,679 | 48.1%808 W · 871 L | +36.2wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a80…d472backed Rio Noguchi | 32c | 334.3$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.51 | 1,186 | 52.4%622 W · 564 L | +28.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3171…b991backed Rio Noguchi | 32c | 316.83$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 335 | 51.9%174 W · 161 L | -15.3wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa594…fe78backed Mark Lajal | 71c | 281.69$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.69 | 38 | 71.1%27 W · 11 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 66cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Rio Noguchi | 20c | 228$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.6 | 4,921 | 38.7%1,905 W · 3,016 L | -20.0wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9888…e6febacked Rio Noguchi | 7c | 218.57$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.15 | 2,447 | 45.9%1,123 W · 1,324 L | -12.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98db…dd17backed Rio Noguchi | 8c | 218$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.77 | 5,350 | 56.4%3,016 W · 2,334 L | +228.4wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f2…8c8dbacked Rio Noguchi | 13c | 214.73$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.12 | 1,708 | 44.8%766 W · 942 L | -18.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Rio Noguchi | 30c | 200$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 4,765 | 47%2,238 W · 2,527 L | -82.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3776…e17abacked Mark Lajal | 72c | 193$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.04 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | -2.0wins | -0.08per pick | 61cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9c26…d474backed Rio Noguchi | 16c | 188.44$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 889 | 35.2%313 W · 576 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b3…145dbacked Mark Lajal | 71c | 176.06$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.06 | 917 | 54%495 W · 422 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed Rio Noguchi | 12c | 169$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.77 | 6,786 | 48.8%3,310 W · 3,476 L | +56.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7179…7d79backed Rio Noguchi | 36c | 158.33$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 2,601 | 46.5%1,209 W · 1,392 L | +18.8wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93d7…c7a6backed Mark Lajal | 67c | 149.25$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.25 | 167 | 55.7%93 W · 74 L | +8.8wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x588b…ed16backed Rio Noguchi | 14c | 141.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.75 | 56 | 57.1%32 W · 24 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e73…ac97backed Mark Lajal | 71c | 140.85$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.85 | 204 | 52.5%107 W · 97 L | -6.5wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8100…1d33backed Mark Lajal | 72c | 138.89$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.89 | 117 | 65%76 W · 41 L | +4.8wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb421…8856backed Mark Lajal | 74c | 133.78$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.78 | 1,776 | 48.6%863 W · 913 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0009…5497backed Mark Lajal | 70c | 133.77$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.77 | 1,880 | 48.5%912 W · 968 L | +8.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d9e…e0e3backed Mark Lajal | 76c | 121$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.04 | 1,923 | 55.4%1,066 W · 857 L | -44.9wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51eb…6bfabacked Mark Lajal | 70c | 118.64$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.59 | 2,561 | 63%1,613 W · 948 L | -10.2wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked Mark Lajal | 75c | 115.49$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.76 | 4,241 | 52.6%2,232 W · 2,009 L | +65.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Rio Noguchi | 28c | 98.89$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.69 | 11,435 | 43.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L | +17.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4738…9cfbbacked Rio Noguchi | 25c | 82$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 357 | 47.9%171 W · 186 L | +16.6wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Mark Lajal | 65c | 80.05$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.63 | 3,874 | 45.4%1,758 W · 2,116 L | -39.6wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe99…506bbacked Mark Lajal | 71c | 70.42$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.42 | 678 | 52.1%353 W · 325 L | -2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6318…46b1backed Rio Noguchi | 29c | 68.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5,261 | 28.8%1,514 W · 3,747 L | -19.4wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf970…f7f6backed Rio Noguchi | 31c | 65$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.15 | 2,485 | 35.9%893 W · 1,592 L | -28.5wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x237f…e76ebacked Rio Noguchi | 29c | 60.37$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.51 | 300 | 55%165 W · 135 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd96…11a3backed Mark Lajal | 71c | 56.34$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.34 | 2,274 | 58%1,318 W · 956 L | -10.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x89c5…4cbdbacked Mark Lajal | 71c | 54.45$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.79 | 18 | 72.2%13 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 71cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x747f…f2d7backed Mark Lajal | 71c | 50.66$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.69 | 901 | 52.3%471 W · 430 L | -2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd1…f311backed Mark Lajal | 71c | 42.25$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.25 | 255 | 51%130 W · 125 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2077…8161backed Mark Lajal | 70c | 41.66$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 1,021 | 57.8%590 W · 431 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6847…f1eabacked Mark Lajal | 71c | 35$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.15 | 137 | 70.1%96 W · 41 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 70cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4b89…9183backed Mark Lajal | 69c | 34$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.54 | 205 | 66.8%137 W · 68 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Mark Lajal | 80c | 25.01$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.05 | 1,629 | 49%798 W · 831 L | -51.6wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde8c…9433backed Mark Lajal | 64c | 23.35$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.35 | 43 | 53.5%23 W · 20 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6770…5bdfbacked Mark Lajal | 68c | 23.34$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.35 | 969 | 45.9%445 W · 524 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b1c…c26fbacked Mark Lajal | 70c | 21.43$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.43 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x00c5…b5e9backed Mark Lajal | 70c | 20.83$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.21 | 231 | 62.8%145 W · 86 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x39b2…157cbacked Mark Lajal | 74c | 20.2$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.25 | 215 | 54%116 W · 99 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x629d…756cbacked Mark Lajal | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.33 | 2,082 | 52.3%1,088 W · 994 L | +19.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45d5…a7a0backed Mark Lajal | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 547 | 46.8%256 W · 291 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff12…0e11backed Mark Lajal | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.31per pick | 64cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e0…7eecbacked Mark Lajal | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.5 | 1,175 | 52.9%622 W · 553 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xddb6…b9b3backed Mark Lajal | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.47 | 1,725 | 52.2%901 W · 824 L | -8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2dc8…47d0backed Mark Lajal | 67c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -21%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f50…1701backed Mark Lajal | 73c | 19.5$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 96 | 56.3%54 W · 42 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5bf8…5b60backed Mark Lajal | 71c | 15.49$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.49 | 115 | 59.1%68 W · 47 L | +4.2wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f56…50edbacked Mark Lajal | 74c | 14.95$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.89 | 277 | 48.7%135 W · 142 L | +13.9wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Lincoln: Mark Lajal vs Rio Noguchithis page
- Set 1 Winner: Lajal vs NoguchiLajal won
- Set Handicap: Lajal (-1.5) vs Noguchi (+1.5)Lajal won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.