Bundesliga · resolved market
Spread: VfL Wolfsburg (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4ec666f4d8c640fe56fd525b56f35487129316f634070aab14821b7f80b78814
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- VfL Wolfsburgof VfL Wolfsburg, FC St. Pauli 1910
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,446
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,497
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,446 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed FC St. Pauli 1910 | 73c | 1,250$911 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$910.92 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x48ec…8f36backed FC St. Pauli 1910 | 26c | 1,152$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.51 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -48.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed VfL Wolfsburg | 74c | 968.4$715 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$253.07 | 435 | 32.2%140 W · 295 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd2f…37ddbacked VfL Wolfsburg | 23c | 953$218 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$735.04 | 65 | 43.1%28 W · 37 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc398…f446backed VfL Wolfsburg | 33c | 577.81$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$389.88 | 64 | 28.1%18 W · 46 L | -3.7wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed VfL Wolfsburg | 73c | 409.84$301 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.2 | 531 | 40.7%216 W · 315 L | -13.3wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked FC St. Pauli 1910 | 77c | 283.69$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217.31 | 1,305 | 40.8%532 W · 773 L | -42.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked FC St. Pauli 1910 | 27c | 243.84$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.84 | 95 | 32.6%31 W · 64 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed VfL Wolfsburg | 16c | 240$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201.6 | 185 | 45.9%85 W · 100 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa38e…8917backed VfL Wolfsburg | 18c | 169$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.15 | 47 | 59.6%28 W · 19 L | +3.2wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc61d…3933backed VfL Wolfsburg | 18c | 166.67$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.67 | 64 | 28.1%18 W · 46 L | -3.9wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5362…d242backed VfL Wolfsburg | 18c | 166.67$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.67 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +57.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbecc…f560backed FC St. Pauli 1910 | 28c | 136.05$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.09 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca97…f3cebacked VfL Wolfsburg | 73c | 106.85$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.85 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +68.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7577…8fb9backed VfL Wolfsburg | 18c | 71.89$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.95 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +2.6wins | +0.26per pick | 24cpaid | +164.3%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2546…5155backed VfL Wolfsburg | 32c | 50$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +2.9wins | +0.17per pick | 54cpaid | +41.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x31c8…9487backed FC St. Pauli 1910 | 63c | 37.64$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.53 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 60cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ab4…5c9cbacked FC St. Pauli 1910 | 70c | 29$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.3 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -29%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed VfL Wolfsburg | 72c | 23$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.44 | 88 | 44.3%39 W · 49 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2378…9a65backed VfL Wolfsburg | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: VfL Wolfsburg (-1.5)this page
- FC St. Pauli 1910 vs. VfL Wolfsburg: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- FC St. Pauli 1910 vs. VfL Wolfsburg: O/U 0.5Over won
- FC St. Pauli 1910 vs. VfL Wolfsburg: O/U 1.5Over won
- FC St. Pauli 1910 vs. VfL Wolfsburg: O/U 2.5Over won
- FC St. Pauli 1910 vs. VfL Wolfsburg: O/U 3.5Over won
- FC St. Pauli 1910 vs. VfL Wolfsburg: O/U 4.5Under won
- FC St. Pauli 1910 vs. VfL Wolfsburg: O/U 5.5Under won
- Spread: FC St. Pauli 1910 (-1.5)VfL Wolfsburg won
- Spread: FC St. Pauli 1910 (-2.5)VfL Wolfsburg won
- Spread: VfL Wolfsburg (-2.5)FC St. Pauli 1910 won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.