Bundesliga · resolved market
FC St. Pauli 1910 vs. VfL Wolfsburg: Both Teams to Score
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe21aaefb3cb25a46f86a89d5e1b0a5aac47e0eff98b97177e8cb96d9bb96d8d7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,923
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,724
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,923 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 70 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 44c | 4,921$2,177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,176.68 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7c7…44b7backed Yes | 55c | 2,000$1,100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$900 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc686…5a55backed Yes | 61c | 1,033$630 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$402.79 | 241 | 32%77 W · 164 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 50c | 943.31$471 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$472.13 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked No | 39c | 623.88$241 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240.85 | 386 | 46.9%181 W · 205 L | -7.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec56…1816backed No | 51c | 613.32$312 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$311.66 | 92 | 48.9%45 W · 47 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked No | 28c | 416.91$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.84 | 95 | 32.6%31 W · 64 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3ac2…f949backed Yes | 61c | 409.84$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.84 | 49 | 65.3%32 W · 17 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc905…850bbacked Yes | 62c | 406.45$252 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.45 | 26 | 69.2%18 W · 8 L | +2.1wins | +0.08per pick | 61cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x160b…4296backed No | 39c | 385.03$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.16 | 387 | 48.3%187 W · 200 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked Yes | 49c | 372.98$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.22 | 91 | 50.5%46 W · 45 L | +7.2wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +27%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7da4…f0a4backed No | 13c | 356$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.1 | 38 | 7.9%3 W · 35 L | -4.5wins | -0.12per pick | 20cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfd2f…37ddbacked No | 41c | 300$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123 | 65 | 43.1%28 W · 37 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a23…fd22backed Yes | 61c | 242$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.38 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -3.3wins | -0.33per pick | 53cpaid | -64.7%equal weight | 39-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4ebb…061abacked Yes | 62c | 241.94$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.94 | 83 | 63.9%53 W · 30 L | +4.5wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x14e3…810cbacked Yes | 46c | 217.39$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.39 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +2.5wins | +0.36per pick | 50cpaid | +70.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc0f8…ae2ebacked Yes | 54c | 208.48$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.05 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.17per pick | 57cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked No | 46c | 201.83$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.15 | 1,305 | 40.8%532 W · 773 L | -42.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc02a…b43fbacked Yes | 57c | 200$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86 | 36 | 58.3%21 W · 15 L | +3.3wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7bbb…ad2ebacked No | 51c | 194$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.79 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb58…86a4backed No | 51c | 193.98$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.93 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -2.3wins | -0.10per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f11…4529backed Yes | 52c | 192.31$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.31 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.9wins | +0.17per pick | 47cpaid | +19%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8b76…c036backed No | 19c | 168$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 20 | 5%1 W · 19 L | -2.4wins | -0.12per pick | 17cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x28e8…6080backed Yes | 60c | 137.5$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd2ab…2da7backed No | 40c | 125$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd8b…63b2backed Yes | 62c | 122.58$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.58 | 37 | 70.3%26 W · 11 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Yes | 59c | 119.8$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.94 | 287 | 55.1%158 W · 129 L | +12.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x81a8…9c69backed No | 60c | 116.23$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.54 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3696…69cebacked Yes | 61c | 100$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 57 | 71.9%41 W · 16 L | +7.7wins | +0.14per pick | 58cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ef…20ebbacked Yes | 59c | 100$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41 | 45 | 46.7%21 W · 24 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5258…534ebacked Yes | 45c | 100$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 51cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed Yes | 46c | 97.88$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.65 | 446 | 55.4%247 W · 199 L | +22.4wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3cd6…b378backed Yes | 40c | 96.23$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.74 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +88.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Yes | 61c | 87$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.93 | 496 | 47.4%235 W · 261 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2573…2726backed Yes | 61c | 85.25$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Yes | 59c | 82.29$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.74 | 1,083 | 50.8%550 W · 533 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x014c…38ccbacked Yes | 62c | 80.24$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.49 | 49 | 69.4%34 W · 15 L | +8.6wins | +0.18per pick | 52cpaid | +48.6%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xa23f…a64ebacked Yes | 48c | 79.99$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.6 | 86 | 64%55 W · 31 L | +5.8wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Yes | 59c | 74.46$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.53 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Yes | 61c | 73.07$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.43 | 531 | 40.7%216 W · 315 L | -13.3wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed No | 39c | 60.29$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.51 | 264 | 45.5%120 W · 144 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Yes | 51c | 55.08$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.03 | 1,013 | 44.5%451 W · 562 L | -8.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5696…b3aabacked Yes | 60c | 55$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbaca…49e6backed Yes | 62c | 54.84$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.84 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed Yes | 59c | 54.25$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 109 | 56%61 W · 48 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbcc4…a77fbacked Yes | 60c | 53.34$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.34 | 15 | 86.7%13 W · 2 L | +3.8wins | +0.25per pick | 61cpaid | +43.8%equal weight | 61+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x157a…e4a3backed Yes | 57c | 52.79$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.79 | 79 | 58.2%46 W · 33 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x90a7…5ac0backed Yes | 60c | 49.99$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.99 | 17 | 82.4%14 W · 3 L | +4.2wins | +0.25per pick | 58cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0954…012abacked Yes | 61c | 49.18$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.18 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | +2.3wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc080…f9a0backed Yes | 62c | 48.39$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.39 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 67cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7175…5a88backed Yes | 61c | 45.82$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.82 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b5…c8f8backed No | 50c | 44.75$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.17 | 54 | 29.6%16 W · 38 L | -6.9wins | -0.13per pick | 42cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdb25…eb12backed Yes | 61c | 41.98$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.37 | 49 | 38.8%19 W · 30 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa5b…9b61backed Yes | 61c | 41.98$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.37 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +2.9wins | +0.18per pick | 38cpaid | +52.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2e75…0143backed No | 47c | 41.51$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.51 | 48 | 29.2%14 W · 34 L | -4.8wins | -0.10per pick | 39cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb66c…a0f5backed No | 41c | 39.86$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.17 | 67 | 43.3%29 W · 38 L | -3.7wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed No | 39c | 34.43$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.43 | 330 | 47.3%156 W · 174 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9fb…c51bbacked Yes | 59c | 33.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.67 | 39 | 61.5%24 W · 15 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6134…c8ccbacked Yes | 61c | 32.79$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.79 | 52 | 67.3%35 W · 17 L | +4.6wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +17%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2df0…6b78backed Yes | 62c | 32.47$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.47 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +106.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0633…efaabacked Yes | 62c | 32.26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.26 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde25…c0a5backed No | 41c | 31.16$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.7 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x133b…5856backed Yes | 58c | 30.27$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.71 | 45 | 57.8%26 W · 19 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +14%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd750…ce9cbacked No | 41c | 29.24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.99 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64a7…2133backed Yes | 53c | 28.3$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.3 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde56…c2f9backed No | 40c | 26.95$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.78 | 50 | 40%20 W · 30 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +34.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa053…da3bbacked Yes | 62c | 24.19$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.19 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Yes | 59c | 22.63$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.28 | 84 | 58.3%49 W · 35 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x170c…7fe3backed Yes | 61c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 55 | 43.6%24 W · 31 L | -7.2wins | -0.13per pick | 57cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2119…9303backed Yes | 61c | 19.67$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.67 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- FC St. Pauli 1910 vs. VfL Wolfsburg: Both Teams to Scorethis page
- FC St. Pauli 1910 vs. VfL Wolfsburg: O/U 0.5Over won
- FC St. Pauli 1910 vs. VfL Wolfsburg: O/U 1.5Over won
- FC St. Pauli 1910 vs. VfL Wolfsburg: O/U 2.5Over won
- FC St. Pauli 1910 vs. VfL Wolfsburg: O/U 3.5Over won
- FC St. Pauli 1910 vs. VfL Wolfsburg: O/U 4.5Under won
- FC St. Pauli 1910 vs. VfL Wolfsburg: O/U 5.5Under won
- Spread: FC St. Pauli 1910 (-1.5)VfL Wolfsburg won
- Spread: FC St. Pauli 1910 (-2.5)VfL Wolfsburg won
- Spread: VfL Wolfsburg (-1.5)VfL Wolfsburg won
- Spread: VfL Wolfsburg (-2.5)FC St. Pauli 1910 won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.