TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Bundesliga · resolved market

FC St. Pauli 1910 vs. VfL Wolfsburg: O/U 3.5

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Overof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$61,579
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$66,937

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $61,579 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 116 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xe5f0…dc1dbacked Over36c15,708$5,655 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,053.3310041%41 W · 59 L+4.0wins+0.04per pick37cpaid-2.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Under64c5,626$3,619 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,618.562,53839.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L-8.1wins0.00per pick40cpaid-11.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf0f7…0c5abacked Under44c4,376$1,924 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,924.364040%16 W · 24 L-2.0wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-15.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb619…5068backed Over35c4,000$1,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,599.825952.5%31 W · 28 L+5.5wins+0.09per pick43cpaid+20.1%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xfd66…fb6dbacked Over21c3,600$750 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,85011142.3%47 W · 64 L+6.3wins+0.06per pick37cpaid+20.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5b75…433bbacked Over35c2,857$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,857.142548%12 W · 13 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick47cpaid0%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x40d0…4415backed Under64c2,368$1,516 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,515.525349.1%26 W · 27 L-4.0wins-0.08per pick57cpaid-12.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Under75c2,005$1,496 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,496.443,28442.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L-74.0wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-18.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0346…52a5backed Under56c1,859$1,050 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,049.8828345.2%128 W · 155 L+6.0wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-5.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x70dc…1783backed Under65c1,623$1,055 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,055.07955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+6.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x13a1…d9bcbacked Over56c1,284$726 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$558.716060.6%97 W · 63 L+9.1wins+0.06per pick55cpaid+3.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x0cc8…8255backed Over35c1,242$433 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$808.66366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.22per pick45cpaid+69.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xfe11…18cfbacked Under64c1,234$790 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$789.818950.6%45 W · 44 L-1.9wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-3.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Under64c1,000$645 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$644.9769851.9%362 W · 336 L+22.3wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+9.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x51f0…3651backed Over34c1,000$340 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6602100%2 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.57per pick43cpaid+145.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xdd5e…9040backed Under65c900$585 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5851936.8%7 W · 12 L-3.1wins-0.16per pick53cpaid-36.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x6e05…2ebcbacked Under64c900$576 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5768851.1%45 W · 43 L-2.4wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-5.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x47fb…0c7bbacked Under64c900$576 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5768949.4%44 W · 45 L-3.5wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-6.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xec56…1816backed Under76c880.31$670 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$670.329248.9%45 W · 47 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6c0a…c1d9backed Over64c800$512 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$288475%3 W · 1 L+1.1wins+0.27per pick48cpaid+24.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa7c2…73bfbacked Under76c788.86$596 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5963268.8%22 W · 10 L+4.2wins+0.13per pick56cpaid+25.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xe8a1…2b76backed Over56c714.29$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$314.291450%7 W · 7 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick54cpaid+1.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x95b7…d633backed Under65c620.63$403 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$403.414641.3%19 W · 27 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-8.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked Under41c469.04$194 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$194.0349143.2%212 W · 279 L-1.3wins0.00per pick43cpaid+22.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Over53c452.27$241 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$211.6448141.8%201 W · 280 L-5.3wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-12.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2d6a…8addbacked Under65c400$260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26042046.4%195 W · 225 L-10.1wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-8.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed Under64c400$256 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25629855.4%165 W · 133 L+11.2wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+7.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x29a6…6ea4backed Under66c378.79$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2503964.1%25 W · 14 L+2.4wins+0.06per pick58cpaid+15.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7da4…f0a4backed Under14c356$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.52387.9%3 W · 35 L-4.5wins-0.12per pick20cpaid-32.6%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x1d63…2e49backed Under30c327.99$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.92665.4%17 W · 9 L+2.7wins+0.10per pick55cpaid+14.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x397e…3d84backed Over16c327.8$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$273.8344655.4%247 W · 199 L+22.4wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+11.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf2d2…a1cdbacked Under47c322.84$152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151.733259.4%19 W · 13 L+1.0wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+6.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x90e4…58eabacked Under13c320.85$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.71650%3 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-28.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2a69…d2f7backed Over49c306.57$149 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$157.8843532.2%140 W · 295 L-2.9wins-0.01per pick33cpaid-9.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1d60…453dbacked Under67c298.51$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2005440.7%22 W · 32 L-7.5wins-0.14per pick55cpaid-19.7%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x8b76…c036backed Under16c290.99$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.04205%1 W · 19 L-2.4wins-0.12per pick17cpaid-36.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6af5…992abacked Over36c277.78$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$177.78933.3%3 W · 6 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick30cpaid-24.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x39fc…e2f2backed Under31c252.31$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.148844.3%39 W · 49 L+3.1wins+0.04per pick41cpaid+1.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xce26…8e06backed Under66c240$158 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$158.43053.3%16 W · 14 L0.0wins0.00per pick53cpaid+14.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7138…8c89backed Over34c240$82 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$157.9911338.9%44 W · 69 L-3.7wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-9.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Over39c228.61$88 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$140.5933737.4%126 W · 211 L-11.2wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-20.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5cb4…4576backed Under64c216.25$138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$138.49850%49 W · 49 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9fe2…6829backed Under67c199.33$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$134.54714.3%1 W · 6 L-2.5wins-0.35per pick50cpaid-78.4%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x9cb4…8285backed Under64c180.62$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115.655058.7%323 W · 227 L+23.5wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+4.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x424e…263bbacked Under65c173.53$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.5328755.1%158 W · 129 L+12.3wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+8.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4cbf…70a1backed Under65c169.23$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110425%1 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.26per pick51cpaid-62.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb595…5922backed Over80c168.75$135 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.751580%12 W · 3 L+1.8wins+0.12per pick68cpaid+14.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xde56…c2f9backed Under65c167.69$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.415040%20 W · 30 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick41cpaid+34.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Under67c164.61$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.9811447.4%54 W · 60 L+0.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid+10.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x200f…7a96backed Under64c159$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.551,08350.8%550 W · 533 L+8.2wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7511…582ebacked Under66c155.32$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.5114055%77 W · 63 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7c56…0615backed Under46c152.17$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$706245.2%28 W · 34 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-6.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under64c150$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$968451.2%43 W · 41 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-1.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdc4f…9804backed Under64c148.23$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.3516846.4%78 W · 90 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7d0c…a3b7backed Under64c147$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.0849647.4%235 W · 261 L+2.0wins0.00per pick47cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x32f7…f399backed Under65c138.46$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+9.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xda77…683fbacked Under55c119.65$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.347136.6%26 W · 45 L-7.6wins-0.11per pick47cpaid-28.4%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x325f…4511backed Under61c112.19$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.8753140.7%216 W · 315 L-13.3wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-10.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2c46…dac9backed Over26c106.7$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.3139558.7%232 W · 163 L+27.4wins+0.07per pick52cpaid+15.4%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x5b62…d87fbacked Under64c100$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$648458.3%49 W · 35 L0.0wins0.00per pick58cpaid+0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4753…41adbacked Over77c100$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23650%3 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-7.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x22ae…af00backed Over58c100$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$421968.4%13 W · 6 L+1.3wins+0.07per pick61cpaid+14.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xff79…a52abacked Over20c100$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8010552.4%55 W · 50 L+4.7wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+16.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf92f…1a35backed Over61c95.08$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.081631.3%5 W · 11 L-2.0wins-0.12per pick44cpaid-46.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf7a6…aed7backed Under54c94.61$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.41681.3%13 W · 3 L+2.7wins+0.17per pick64cpaid+26.9%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xc718…64a8backed Under73c93.59$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.393658.3%21 W · 15 L-2.3wins-0.06per pick65cpaid-10.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xbb9f…557bbacked Under64c90.55$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.959532.6%31 W · 64 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick32cpaid-17.5%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xb891…969bbacked Over35c87.57$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.9213142%55 W · 76 L-2.3wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-8.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc61d…3933backed Over35c85.71$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.716428.1%18 W · 46 L-3.9wins-0.06per pick34cpaid-28.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x33af…288abacked Over25c80$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6027142.8%116 W · 155 L+18.5wins+0.07per pick36cpaid+17.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x697e…9904backed Under65c76.92$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$502138.1%8 W · 13 L-2.4wins-0.11per pick50cpaid-28.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5cbd…a3a4backed Over34c73.53$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.53333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2e75…0143backed Under34c73.52$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$254829.2%14 W · 34 L-4.8wins-0.10per pick39cpaid-33.4%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xefde…6505backed Under65c71.65$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.5722047.3%104 W · 116 L+4.7wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+2.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x133b…5856backed Over38c70.26$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.284557.8%26 W · 19 L+2.3wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+14%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4f68…3e9cbacked Under22c68.34$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.03425%1 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.09per pick34cpaid-60.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x29a5…a3c4backed Over45c67.79$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.5110956%61 W · 48 L+3.0wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed Over50c67.42$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.426445.5%120 W · 144 L-2.7wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-7.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Under45c66.91$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.3920645.6%94 W · 112 L-3.0wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x551c…fe91backed Under39c65.79$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.539052.2%47 W · 43 L+6.2wins+0.07per pick45cpaid+59.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x9808…5cfdbacked Under66c60.61$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick63cpaid+8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4155…fa41backed Over80c60.25$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.052369.6%16 W · 7 L+3.8wins+0.16per pick53cpaid+23.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x5c18…c208backed Over18c59.99$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.195461.1%33 W · 21 L+3.8wins+0.07per pick54cpaid+18.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x976a…e8ecbacked Under37c59.8$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.926850%34 W · 34 L+2.7wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+7.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3350…9588backed Under67c59.7$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$401181.8%9 W · 2 L+1.8wins+0.16per pick66cpaid+29.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xaaf5…e71cbacked Over56c53.57$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.57633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.08per pick41cpaid-37.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8b32…2920backed Under44c51.58$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.57540%2 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-27.6%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x404f…f2a1backed Under77c50$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.51258.3%7 W · 5 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick55cpaid-0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaad3…d0d2backed Under38c47.37$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$183246.9%15 W · 17 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-2.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x82a5…674ebacked Under65c47.09$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.616046.7%28 W · 32 L-2.6wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-16.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x160b…4296backed Under66c46.51$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.738748.3%187 W · 200 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-3.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf5d5…11f0backed Under65c46.15$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301050%5 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick51cpaid+13.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked Under29c43.19$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.4922245.9%102 W · 120 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-1.7%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xb435…b97cbacked Over41c40$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.81952.6%10 W · 9 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-4.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa574…0559backed Under49c36.6$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.82366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick61cpaid+0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xecda…6f0abacked Under64c35$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.41827.8%5 W · 13 L-3.5wins-0.19per pick47cpaid-41.9%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xb305…a400backed Over54c33.33$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.332152.4%11 W · 10 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-4.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf129…1edcbacked Under65c30.77$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20944.4%4 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick45cpaid-1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc4fe…601fbacked Under61c30$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.272650%13 W · 13 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-15.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6d4e…6478backed Over69c30$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.3666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.5wins+0.26per pick41cpaid+37.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.