Bundesliga · resolved market
FC St. Pauli 1910 vs. VfL Wolfsburg: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6ec971b20b303e8dd3f0abb1a4ef660ff94a212ebfac6e65477a5847f11f951a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,246
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,296
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,246 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe5f0…dc1dbacked Over | 16c | 9,078$1,483 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,482.72 | 100 | 41%41 W · 59 L | +4.0wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6af5…992abacked Over | 18c | 416.67$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf021…e900backed Over | 48c | 355.08$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.97 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -2.0wins | -0.22per pick | 44cpaid | -59.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ca…117abacked Over | 45c | 333.33$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 53 | 49.1%26 W · 27 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf5…e71cbacked Over | 22c | 226.94$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Under | 53c | 225.71$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.98 | 88 | 44.3%39 W · 49 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 66c | 221.9$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.44 | 1,305 | 40.8%532 W · 773 L | -42.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc61d…3933backed Over | 18c | 166.67$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 64 | 28.1%18 W · 46 L | -3.9wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd53c…5194backed Over | 24c | 160$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | -3.2wins | -0.12per pick | 39cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa7c2…73bfbacked Under | 75c | 132.76$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.76 | 32 | 68.8%22 W · 10 L | +4.2wins | +0.13per pick | 56cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked Under | 58c | 130.53$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.82 | 95 | 32.6%31 W · 64 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd60c…2b06backed Over | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 160 | 56.9%91 W · 69 L | +13.3wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0176…910ebacked Over | 41c | 121.95$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Over | 12c | 117.38$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.56 | 71 | 36.6%26 W · 45 L | -7.6wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 72c | 93.34$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 640 | 43.9%281 W · 359 L | -9.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 70c | 83.14$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.26 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Over | 42c | 78.31$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.92 | 435 | 32.2%140 W · 295 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe29c…a31dbacked Over | 29c | 76$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.85 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x976a…e8ecbacked Under | 53c | 60.64$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.78 | 68 | 50%34 W · 34 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff2a…bfefbacked Under | 52c | 57.69$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.69 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a6…aed7backed Under | 72c | 55.17$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.17 | 16 | 81.3%13 W · 3 L | +2.7wins | +0.17per pick | 64cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Under | 74c | 53.85$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 206 | 45.6%94 W · 112 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39fd…3914backed Over | 26c | 53.85$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c76…2632backed Under | 56c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.9 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb435…b97cbacked Over | 40c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x551c…fe91backed Under | 53c | 38.29$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.84 | 90 | 52.2%47 W · 43 L | +6.2wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +59.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0fde…0258backed Under | 66c | 32.8$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.24 | 77 | 50.6%39 W · 38 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Under | 56c | 29.54$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.95 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f9…29a9backed Under | 76c | 21.66$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.22 | 111 | 59.5%66 W · 45 L | +7.4wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed Under | 63c | 21.2$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.86 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -23%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- FC St. Pauli 1910 vs. VfL Wolfsburg: O/U 4.5this page
- FC St. Pauli 1910 vs. VfL Wolfsburg: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- FC St. Pauli 1910 vs. VfL Wolfsburg: O/U 0.5Over won
- FC St. Pauli 1910 vs. VfL Wolfsburg: O/U 1.5Over won
- FC St. Pauli 1910 vs. VfL Wolfsburg: O/U 2.5Over won
- FC St. Pauli 1910 vs. VfL Wolfsburg: O/U 3.5Over won
- FC St. Pauli 1910 vs. VfL Wolfsburg: O/U 5.5Under won
- Spread: FC St. Pauli 1910 (-1.5)VfL Wolfsburg won
- Spread: FC St. Pauli 1910 (-2.5)VfL Wolfsburg won
- Spread: VfL Wolfsburg (-1.5)VfL Wolfsburg won
- Spread: VfL Wolfsburg (-2.5)FC St. Pauli 1910 won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.